Unfunded future liabilites question

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On another forum, in discussing healthcare, I brought up the topic of unfunded future liabilites and used (http://www.usdebtclock.org/) as a reference point.

The question "how far out are these liabilities forecasted?" came up and it stumped me.

Obviously this is very important and I was wondering if anyone here knows the answer. Any links you could provide would be key.

Thanks.

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Very interesting hayek.

Very interesting hayek. Thank you for the well thought out answer. So when they say $92 trillion or whatever into infinity, what does that mean? They should say "unfunded liabilities up until" such and such a date are equal to "x". Going into infinity is meaningless.

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

Hmmm...

Good question, I figure that the Rubicon is within sight. There is a stress point which will be well before bankruptcy, where increased taxation, printing more money, borrowing more money simply won't function.

At this stage, there will be a huge debate during the election and debate that amounts to little more than pointing fingers. In the end, it will be a decision a mandatory assimilation of all "essential services" by government or deregulation on a massive scale. The former will condemn us to an eternity of indentured servitude while the latter option would be a catalyst for returning to a more libertarian mindset.

What is the breaking point? I don't know...when money is worthless, nations won't lend America money and the American taxpayer simply cannot be taxed anymore. Each additional "unfunded liability" makes the probability of completely Totalitarian American government more likely.

It is possible that we have crossed the Rubicon, now that over 50% of Americans receive more benifits than they pay in taxation. It will be difficult, if not impossible for anyone usurp a power in a democracy where more than 50% of the population are being bribed by the government.

Obama's new Healthcare legislation, will push more people into this category, and we will begin the rapid descent into socialism because the majority of people will rule the nation as a democracy (read mobacracy) rather than as a Republic, where the reigns of government are held in check by Constitutional Law.

So maybe we have 15 years because as the dollar loses value the government must use more force to convince us to use it as our primary currency (using legal tender laws). I think that if you graphed the history of inflation, you would see that inflation often parrallels the erosion of freedom. It is a necessity that this is so.

The existence of a Central Bank using FIAT currencies makes must cause an eternal decline in freedom. I was going to write an extended essay uses historical facts and mathematics to support this argument, given time, maybe I still will.

Interesting, hayek. So

Interesting, hayek. So where do they come up with the numbers then?

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

Numbers

The numbers are generated from anticipated operating expense, they are not genuine liabilities. They tally the costs of Medicaid and other services, but they are not actually listed as liabilities on the books. The congress will not allow them to be listed because these are expenses that can be cut at any time, meaning they are not genuine liabilities. The government is only liable if they decide to pay the money.

Meaning the unfunded liabilities # is actually not a reflection of impending bankruptcy, but rather an indicator of the likelihood of increased inflation (as we print money to artificially sustain the services) and deteriorating services (as the programs are cut to maintain viability).

This is published proof that the Austrian economists are correct, and a socialized system is not one that lowers costs and does not provide the constant improvement of private industry. Rather it means, we will definitely have our purchasing power and earning potential eroded by money printed to prop up socialized services and they are predicting that those socialized services will be unsustainable at the current level of service in the future.

This means we will need to work harder for less. We'll be poorer and have less medicaid, reduced social assistance etc.

That's all that number means, you can't lose your income or assets based on these services, which is why they are not on the government books. They are not considered genuine liabilities...they are planning to, and indeed they must cut them whenever it suits their budget.

There is no such thing as unfunded liabilities!!!

Unfunded liabilities...are lies. They are funded, it does not represent bankruptcy for the government. It represents the Governments march towards Tyranny over it's citizens.

Most Government debt is a lie. Debt is the modern tool of extracting "Tribute" from neighboring nations, and maintaining serfdom within the populace.

If in 1910 they forcasted for the budget deficits of the 1950's, and the introduction of the income tax, America would have rebelled.

If in 1950, they forcasted for the budget deficits of the 1990's, they would've been petrified. I don't think social security is going bankrupt, it's funded until 2040+ with 75% thereafter.

Now, we march towards the year 2040, and people are complacent...our will to resist tyranny and injustice almost completely eroded.

It seems counter intuitive to believe the truth. The truth being, we don't owe a dime of the federal debt. We never borrowed any money, and we shouldn't feel personally obligated to repay it.

Any service requiring mandatory participation is a violation of your freedom. I never consented to having my family held hostage by their mandatory social programs.

Even if I voted for the people in power, I never consented to being robbed, having my choices diminished or having my future earning power leveraged.

The unfunded liability is a lie, they can cut these services and expenses anytime. They expand social programs to kill the private sector services so that the elimination of government services would mean no services at all. Then there's no going back...no going back to private health care, because resetting means giving up the services until we can rebuild private industry. It means eternal taxation and servitude, for everyone.

Thank you for all of the

Thank you for all of the responses, but I'm still confused...

"Add together the unfunded liabilities from Medicare and Social Security, and it comes to $99.2 trillion over the infinite horizon."

What does this mean? Wow, sometimes I feel dumb. So we are $99.2 trillion behind pace to pay for these entitlements into infinity?

Can someone please clarify this for me?

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

Deficits will rise going forward and are not sustainable

that's if we add zero new programs. So, how do we pay for promises made?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetization

Monetizing The Debt

In the United States, and in many other countries, the government does not have the right to issue currency to pay its bills. In this case the government must finance its deficit by issuing bonds to the public to acquire the additional funds to pay its bills. However, if these bonds do not end up in the hands of the public, the only alternative is for them to be purchased by the central bank. For the bonds not to end up in the public hands the central bank must conduct an open market purchase. This action by the central bank increases the monetary base, through the money creation process. This process of financing government spending is called monetizing the debt.[1] Monetizing debt is a two step process where the government issues debt to finance its spending, the central bank purchases the debt from the public, and the public is left with high powered money. When government deficits are financed through this method of debt monetization the outcome is an increase in the monetary base, or the money supply. If a budget deficit persists for a substantial period of time, then the monetary base will also increase, shifting the aggregate demand curve to the right leading to a rise in the price level.[2]

To summarize: a deficit can be the source of sustained inflation only if it is persistent rather than temporary and if the government finances it by creating money, {through monetizing the debt}, rather than leaving bonds in the hands of the public.[3]

June 2009
http://mindovermarket.blogspot.com/2009/06/bernankefed-has-n...
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke today told Congress that the central bank has no plans to monetize the sharply rising deficits of the United States and defended the Fed's program to purchase Treasuries. He told Congress of the need for Washington to control spending and set appropriate tax levels, in consultation with the American people, to achieve 'fiscal sustainability' in the long term. By that he meant a situation where the ratio of government debt service to the size of the economy is stable or declining."

China and other holders of US debt are about as cheerful as a cat in a dog show regarding our situation. See the post below about yesterday's debt auction.

How's our credibility holding up in China?
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK14475...
"Chinese assets are very safe," Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.

His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting scepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.

BumP: Unfunded liabilities - 58 Trillion dollars!

We are in some deep, deep, you know what.

Ah the good old days

of 53-65Trillion dollar estimates
Dallas Federal Reseve estimates them at 99.2 Trillion (2008)
www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm

Richard W. Fisher
Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
"Add together the unfunded liabilities from Medicare and Social Security, and it comes to $99.2 trillion over the infinite horizon. Traditional Medicare composes about 69 percent, the new drug benefit roughly 17 percent and Social Security the remaining 14 percent.

I want to remind you that I am only talking about the unfunded portions of Social Security and Medicare. It is what the current payment scheme of Social Security payroll taxes, Medicare payroll taxes, membership fees for Medicare B, copays, deductibles and all other revenue currently channeled to our entitlement system will not cover under current rules. These existing revenue streams must remain in place in perpetuity to handle the “funded” entitlement liabilities. Reduce or eliminate this income and the unfunded liability grows. Increase benefits and the liability grows as well. "

Adding more programs that can't self fund is a good idea? What's ten-forty trillion here or there between friends. How much will National Heathcare add to the mix?

Makes you wonder when (not if) China will say no mas
Denniner Yesterday
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1267-US-5yr-Bond...
"That's right, FAILS.

No, you didn't hear it reported this way and won't, but that's the math.

Here you have the results:( more at link)

Great post: What is another 40 Trillion increase in the last ..

15 minutes! Hell's bells, get the wheelbarrows ready to take to the store to buy bread.

Awesome post Susan.

The final link has an eye-opener, if you read the article...

There is only one other time in recent memory that we've had a bond market auction fail like this. You might want to go have a look at your charts - with dates - for what followed shortly thereafter.

What happened shortly therafter is that the Dow halved in value.

~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~

Please see Oct 2008

It's a corner and we backed ourselves into it.....

Wow.

Nice link and post!

And another thing...

the so-called 'unfunded liabilities' are Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. If these Government forced programs began in the 30's they should have been generally collecting money, with negligible payouts, for at least 40 years. That brings us to the 70's. The time when the Baby Boomers begin retiring would seem to be the first time at which the crappy program would have tended to have 'negative growth'. But there is simply no money in the fund. Where did it go? Did they forecast that bad or did they spend it? Either way they stole from us. And now they are going to force more crappy so-called 'Healthcare Programs" on us.

We should call it what it is. "Unfunded Liabilities" are the stolen wealth of the American people.

CBO...

runs thier forcast out to 2075.

Quick chart....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GAO_Slide.png

This chart is factored with a positive GDP, an unemployment rate no higher than 6%... and an unchanging mortaility rate.

So it is quite out of date.... :(

~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~

good graphs

although I think they are a bunch of hogwash. Why are revenues constant? Revenues should have been soaring while the Baby Boomers were working but that was not the case. If forecasted properly the Baby Boomers would have sufficient funds earning interest to see them through death. Actually I am sure they forecasted fine but the Goevernment and their Cronies stole the money.

You are correct.

These are the ~official~ graphs, meaning they are a best-case scenario (and before our current little ~downturn~).

They are a place to start... I assume that a real set of charts would scare the piss out of anyone that can do basic math.

~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~

Thanks Devon That's what I was hunting for

So much for the positive GDP and 6% Unemployment assumptions that are on par with 8% return rates expected by pension programs like CALPERS

Right?

Now, with the same old figures, here is the Medicare/SS projected deficits....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Medicare_%26_Social_Securi...

This is why health care reform is going to be done.

They need to kill off a lot of these recipients... :(

~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~

That is the obvious conclusion unfortunately

hopefully there's another one out there....somewhere

Well...

as mentioned on this thread (I had to doublecheck it), Social Security is not a guarantee. They can stop paying out of the fund at any time.

However, there is a catch-22... they would no longer be able to collect it.

Well, that and whomever did it would have just committed not only political suicide, but started the process of the people stringing up everyone in DC...

~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~

I believe that's the rational for not counting

Social Security in general revenue and why it will get paid in nominal value-it will be paid-we can just print what is required right? *

There's a bunch of good links at the bottom of this page
www.federalbudget.com/

Also this: "Social Security is not part of the Federal Budget general fund. It is a separate account and has its own source of income. Social Security payments do not go into the general fund, they go in the Social Security trust fund, and should NOT be counted as general revenue. The trust fund is supposed to be used to pay future benefits. But....keep reading....

Currently, there is more being payed into the Social Security Trust Fund than is being paid out to beneficiaries. What's left over is routinely being "borrowed" and used as if it were general budget revenue. Government agencies using that money promise to pay it back (IOUs). All of the money in the Social Security Trust Fund has been spent! That's part of the National Debt. So Social Security is just a very large tax collection tool.

Beware the term "Social Security Surplus"; there is no such thing. Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme, there is never more in the Trust Fund than will ever be needed."

Great question..

It urks me that the Government debt is divided into two categories. One that owed to the banks and foreigners. And the other, suspiciously dubbed "unfunded liabilities" instead of 'debt', which totally minimizes that fact that we have been forced to send our hard earned money into a government Ponzi sceme. "Unfunded Liabilities" is the debt owed to the enslaved American people. I did not want to participate in this qauisi-insurance/pension plan but was forced to. And it is just that, 'insurance'. Some people will get more than they put in and some will get less but none the less it is forced insurance. If the government can estimate the future cost it can also estimate the payments. Therefore, it is ALL well deserved payouts to us.

Remember Bush pushing "privatized Social Security"? That was when we had a couple of hundred billion in the fund. Now, there is no need to privatize it because, the money was stolen, without Congressional approval. It is a 100% Ponzi sceme now.

Right and remember "that which can't be paid won't be paid"

at least not in real versus nominal value anyway. (that is why sound money that holds it's value is so very important-so people can save for retirement without inflation dilution of those savings which winds up forcing people to invest or put their savings at risk to offset the monetary policy of inflation-you can see how well that has worked out. 401K holders are way down with not enough years left before retirement to recoup the losses generated by the financial crisis. Most people no longer have defined benefit pensions. Those are mostly found in the public sector and union shops. But even having a pension is no guarantee because they are going bust also and when they wind up at the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. they get cut down 30-40%. Saving for retirement by owning a home and counting on the increase in value to offset retirement shortfalls isn't working out very well either given the housing crisis. If they do manage to re inflate the housing market it won't be in real value, it will be nominal value.

on pensions
www.pensiontsunami.com/

Mish writes extensively on the disparity between the public and private sector and the lack of ability to sustain benefits in that area. His latest:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/bloated-s...
Poke around that site for more data

There's big problems just on the horizon with all of the various schemes put together by earlier generations which is what leads Martenson to conclude the future will not be like the present at all. He has put together a Crash Course that reviews it @ www.chrismartenson.com

Fantastic Susan

You are exactly correct! As long as we have a fiat Ponzi money our ability to make sound decisions with any investment is hindered. My best guess right now is physical gold and silver to secure savings.

I really enjoyed the Martenson Crash Course too.

Thanks for the other links.

Track down The actuarial statistics used to estimate the

unfunded liabilities of X ie) Social Security. There should be some kind of white paper/analysis put out annually. But, social security isn't insurance (not a guarantee) the Government can take away the liability by ending the plan.

David Walker talks extensively about unfunded liabilities
www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2009/06/16/david...

I don't know where else to

I don't know where else to go to find an answer to this question, so I'm gonna bump this up one more time...

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

***Crickets*** “Liberty

***Crickets***

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw

“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw