# GOLD to 644.00??

I for one am hoping that the price of Gold and Silver come down.
I will be in position to buy in about 3 or 4 months.

The Rosen Market Timing Letter: GOLD \$1200, \$1500, \$2500, \$3500

By Ronald Rosen
Aug 6 2009 1:51PM

What if a decline to \$644 takes place before the exalted highs are obtained? Is this possible? How could it happen? What would cause it to happen?

The reality, as I see it, is that time is more important than price on the way down as well as the way up.

Please do not assume that I am predicting a decline in gold to \$644 before the price takes off in a huge rise to heights unknown at the moment. I am not predicting a collapse in the price of gold. I am presenting technical reasons why we should be cautious and not overly optimistic. Caution is always warranted. You should never be overloaded with any investment or trade or borrowed up to the hilt in order to make a fortune.

A decline in the price of gold to \$644 an ounce before the price moves up dramatically is in the realm of probability and is not just a possibility.

A study of the monthly gold chart with the Delta Long Term turning points will allow us to see a potentially incomplete correction that began at the high of \$1,033.90 in March 2008.

“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann

Wave counting is an art and not an exact science. However, if time is taken into consideration, the probability that a wave count is accurate is higher than if time is not part of your calculation. This monthly gold chart is labeled showing wave ONE, TWO, and THREE. Wave FOUR a corrective wave is shown as requiring one more leg down. That would be the [C] leg. Wave THREE is shown as having topped at \$1033.90 in March 2008. From that point forward the chart shows leg [A] down, leg [B] up underway or complete at \$1007.70. Leg [C] down is either underway or will be after a high above \$1007.70. If there is going to be a 50% correction of Wave THREE the bottom should be in the vicinity of \$644.00.

The Wave TWO correction down consumed 18 months.

The Wave Three move up from bottom to top is shown on the chart as having consumed 84 months.

The Wave FOUR correction down, so far, is shown as having consumed only seven months. Is a seven month Wave FOUR correction a sufficient amount of time to eliminate all the excess enthusiasm accumulated in an 84 month rising Wave THREE? This unanswerable question is the reason for caution at this time. Caution means do not be overloaded with gold shares at this time. If you are uncomfortably overloaded with gold and silver shares or commodity contracts or gold and silver ETF’s, it may be wise to reduce your commitment to a level that you are comfortable with.

GOLD MONTHLY CHART # 1

http://www.kitco.com/ind/rosen/aug062009.html

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### Its always best to look for pullbacks

draw a ten year trend line on gold and silver. put a 1 standard deviation on it . it makes perfect sense to me. never ,ever ,ever buy and overbought pattern. although they gave u a chance to buy silver under ten. typically with such a large pullback it will cross the channel to the other extreme of its deviation. I trade for a living. when silver broke ten its was sketchy but i mannaged to buy more. be patient. dont chase. joe