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Anybody have a clue ?
Submitted by Bonhomme Richard on Wed, 08/19/2009 - 14:52
... the next bubble that will break that is not on the radar ? Hint it has happened before and will again. The only question is when ? » |
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So you think a NYSE crash the likes of 1929?
In Christ,
Dave
"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17
Check us out @
www.lionandlambministry.com
Grace be to you, and peace, from God our Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ.
In The LORD Jesus Christ;
Dave
"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17
http://www.lionandlambministry.com
The ways things are going
... anything is possible. I understand that the CRE is suppose to make the housing bubble look tame (banks). No wonder they are shoring up the FDIC with 500 Billion. The law prior only allowed the FDIC 30 Billion, something is up !
The next
Bubble to break is the commercial real estate bubble. I can see it happening now here in Mass. Every day i see more and more store fronts closing. Some malls are half empty except for the high end ones. This bubble will be a disaster.
You are currently right,
... but CRE is on the radar. Gold is not (next).
Clue # 2
It has run up now, and maybe even higher ?
are you thinking a gold bubble?
"What was taken from the boomers, it ain't there, what was taken from the X'ers it ain't there, what is being taken from their great, great, great squared grandchildren it ain't there. Some generation just has to have the guts to quit passing it on." Me
*May the only ones to touch your junk, be the ones you want to touch your junk.*
Un-huh !
...that's exactly what I was thinking !
Comparing now with 1980 gold should be a lot higher, so should interest rates comparatively. The central bankers are artificially manipulating the markets. If they can do what they are doing now (suppressing gold and interest rates), investors are vulnerable to central bankers whims.
To be a gold dealer from the Federal Reserve the requirement is $5,000,000.00 when I inquired. It is an exclusive club, and we ain't in it. Study the history and past charts. Buy low and sell high !
The baby-boomer bubble.
After all, did you think Health Care Reform, Card-Check and Cap & Trade were about anything else?
All about the taxes, baby... to try to stave off the impending doom on negative entitlement balances.
~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~
a *vaccine* needle
can pop that bubble!
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
woo hoo!
Then there is that...
I'm.. how do I put this... unsure but cautious on the vaccine thing.
I'm not taking one...lol.
~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~
Real Estate will re-inflate to form the next bubble...
The M3
1980 $2 Trillion
1990 $4 Trillion
2000 $6 Trillion
2007 $10 Trillion
2008 $14 Trillion
2009 $21 Trillion and growing
The base created between 1990 & 2002 Created the bubble as fractional reserve banking inflated at tremendous rates to create the bubble that culminated in 2008.
Now we have a base 5 times larger waiting for fractional reserve banking to work their magic. It is'nt happening now, as the money is being held, being ponzi'd around between the world's central banks, or it's being used to slurp up all banking competition into the hands of the Fed crime syndicate. Deflation is certainly the affect currently. This will soon end as CPI-PPI have dipped below GDP and will come out of this paradigm with a vengeance.
While many point to the money destroying affect of deflation and default, they never seem to understand or discuss the fact that there is not a one to one correspondence for such an affect. As money is inflated via the successive deposits that each new loan creates, it is dependent on which stage (of approximately 9 stages of inflation that new money experiences) as to how much the base is decreased. If a base starts with $1,000,000.00, and it survives long enough for 4 successive trips through the fractional reserve system, roughly $3,900,000.00 is then in circulation. If the first $900,000 then defaults, it doesn't extinguish the whole $900,000 since an asset, albeit reduced in value still exists...as well as the rest of the money that is attached to performing loans...which of course will continue to grow for as long as each successive loan continues to perform.
Once the banks begin to do what it is that they do...lend the money in their coffers and given the size of the base now in existence, we will see a moon shot of inflation that will culminate in a re-inflation of real estate and most likely somewhere within the markets...probably in commodity related vehicles. The vast sums ready for inflation will need to find big-ticket items to flow into...it seems real estate is tailor made for such lunacy.
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
i question your M3 stats
Where are you finding reliable M3 data...the government no longer reports M3 and there isn't a good way to measure it.
Are you finding these numbers at shadowstats or someone who's opinion I value?
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
I'll have to look around for the 14-21 increase info...
I don't remember exactly where it came from...just that I thought the source credible and socked it away in memory. I remember it included the $3 Trillion in disbursements from the FED that they are not disclosing amongst other things. The 6-10 was official & 10-14 is widely accepted.
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
Please
I'm a statistics and numbers guy, I really enjoyed poking holes in shadowstats methods and would love to look critically at these numbers.
Please send them on if you get a chance.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
What's your call on the actual money supply at this point?
I am not one to argue with you as you have been rather good with your prognostications...especially the call on oil a while back. I looked at shadow stats m3 graph but have a problem with the seemed ease of the rapid decrease, as if every default recorded devalued its underlying asset to 0. I admit I'm really not sure of what I am looking at there. Thanks.
Also are the under the table Fed transactions, those that are apparently "nobody's business" accounted for by various alternative methods?
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
I dunno
I'm not much of a money supply expert...the more I read about the system the more questions I end up with. It's a convoluted cluster @#$%
I'm not discarding those stats outright...but it doesn't seem logical that the money supply doubled over a few years. Just looking at the charts, I would guess M3 is somewhere around 14 trillion...but that's merely an educated guess.
I don't think anyone but the Fed could reliably calculate M3...but I would be tremendously interested in their methods.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
No chance we'll get honesty from that quarter (FED)...
The $14 Trillion by Jan 2009 is widely accepted and completely devoid of any accounting for the Fed's subsequent backroom deals which were disbursed directly into the system as deposits by the recipients of those dealings. My feeling is that we are, at least, above $16 Trillion which, as I stated, is a new base of about $10 Trillion that has yet to begin to churn. Of course this gets much uglier if the number is 21.
The increases from 2007 have not even really begun to churn yet so, whether the number is 14, 16 or 21 the end product, once the turtle morphs into the hare, which WILL happen given historic reference and the fact that the banks exists for, and by, that purpose. The end product in 4-7 years is a money supply in excess of $75 Trillion unless either the banks do away with fractional reserve printing, or the churn remains at a snails pace for an extended period of time...fat chance of that.
I am trying to remember the source for the 21. I'll dig some tomorrow. It seems to me I've even heard this number in the past couple of days...$13 Trillion since the first bailout began...also references to Obama's printing being in excess of all 8 years of GWB's presidency...convoluted is right!
Whatever it is...it's a shit load.
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
Don't be so certain
These things don't always move in a straight line...credit money is easily created, and is more easily destroyed. Even considering the pace of printing and the bailouts of 2008, the overall credit in the US shrunk hugely.
Credit is easier to print than cash, and also easier to burn.
Don't sweat it though...they'll throw money from a helicopter before letting the money supply shrink. Bernanke actually said he would do this, hence the nickname helicopter Ben.
Three things are for certain...death, taxes, and inflation (at least until we win)
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
Dollar bubble. Just like '33 and '71
This time it's for the big prize though. 1933-seize the gold 1971--abandon the gold 2009-2010--abandon the dollar.
Explore Orthodox Christianity
The Big Government
The Big Government bubble!
You Judge A Tree By It's Fruit, NOT its Flower
Commercial real estate -
Commercial real estate - Credit Cards - Student Loans - Small Business Loans - Car Loans (Thanks cash for clunkers) - and of course the Dollar bubble.
http://www.meetup.com/RP2012GrandJunctionCO
Take more clunkers off the
Take more clunkers off the streets means taking more drivers off the streets,$$$$$ managed public driving.
naughty, naught
!
!
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!
!
!
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!
!
!
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!
Commercial real estate..
My husband and I have noticed a lot of hotel construction across the country over the past year or so. Several at a time in some places! There's probably a bubble there, somewhere.
*******************
It is good and proper to respect the U.S. flag, perpetuated with the blood of American heroes. It is a fatal mistake not to recognize those who wrap themselves in the same flag to cover up their crimes against the American people.
~ Sherman H. Skolnick
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!
Sorry!
!
(and I haven't had a drink to drop!)
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!
"a drink to drop" ?
That's funny! LOL
Don't let that smoke get in
Don't let that smoke get in your eyes, either.
naughty, naught
No worries,
No worries, mate!
*****************
It is good and proper to respect the U.S. flag, perpetuated with the blood of American heroes. It is a fatal mistake not to recognize those who wrap themselves in the same flag to cover up their crimes against the American people.
~ Sherman H. Skolnick
. @ @ . Power to the People!
@ O @ -----> PEOPLE
. @ @ . NOT Corporate Entities!