Grayson advisor: Rand Paul poll strength a "phantom number"Submitted by rhino on Thu, 08/20/2009 - 19:30
The WHAS11 Survey USA poll of the Kentucky U.S. Senate race continues to reverberate through both parties and all the campaigns.
One of the biggest storylines to emerge from the poll is that Bowling Green eye doctor Rand Paul trails the presumptive GOP nominee Secretary of State Trey Grayson by only 11 points among likely voters in the Republican primary. The immediate reaction among the Kentucky Republican establishment was shock.
Paul referred to WHAS11's report on the poll when he told Walt Thiessen on the Libertarian website nolanchart.com:
"The media report said we should be 'ecstatic', and we are. We've not even done a mailing of the primary list yet. I've been campaigning for only about 3 months, only about 3 weeks as an official candidate, and my opponent has been campaigning for eight years!"
He went on to say, "We are within striking distance of the establishment Republican and in a dead heat with the leading Democrat. At this stage of the race, we couldn't ask for better results. Our numbers will only move higher as we begin to get our name and message out."
But long time Republican strategist Ted Jackson of Louisville calls Paul's 26% support in the poll a "phantom number."
"No one can believe that Rand Paul has that kind of name I.D." Jackson said, "There is no one who can believe that number has any accuracy."
"It cannot be about him."
Jackson echoed the thoughts of many observors when he noted that Rand Paul has his father to thank for any recognition. Texas Congressman Ron Paul enjoyed the support of fervent libertarians in his run for the Republican presidential nomination.
"People who support Trey are people who vote in Republican primary," Jackson continued.
But, the Survey USA poll shows that the heart of Grayson's support is among moderates, who support him 50% - 19% over Paul. Among conservatives, Grayson had a fsingle digit margin, 35% - 28%.
"That's really not a concern," Jackson said, "There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials. People will be reminded about who has worked with the party," and who has spent the time cultivating party support.
"Rand Paul is not a Republican. It will become more apparant."
"Has he been a precinct captain? LD chairman? Those things matter." Jackson predicts a "lot of pushback" for the "Johnny come lately" Paul.
"The sky is not falling for me"
But Jackson acknowledges that the WHAS11/Survey USA poll is "perfect timing" for Paul's moneybomb today (August 20). He argues it is, however, a short term bounce.
"Trey is the incumbent here, in essence"
Jackson is an informal unpaid advisor to Grayson's campaign.
While the primary numbers are not exciting for Grayson, Republicans, overall, have to be pleased at the prospects for the fall election, especially considering that the race was leaning Democrat while Jim Bunning was the GOP candidate.
"It bodes very well," Jackson said adding that the poll is "disastrous news for Democrats," and "not what they expected."
Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo has an eight point lead in the poll over Attorney General Jack Conway, with Conway's support mostly from urban areas and Mongiardo's from rural areas.
If Conway was considered the frontrunner before the poll, it would be difficult for any independent observor to give either Democrat an edge.
Could this be a more text book example of "running scared".
I love it.
They have no idea how to run.
After all Mr. Greyson is a former democrat ...
and the son of a banker that was a recipient of TARP funds.
They are running around right now with no heads.
And I am laughing profusely about the image in my head.