rhino: Financial prediction for the fourth quarter

0 votes

Start getting into SKF on peak days for the DOW and S & P.

The financials are going to pop their own bubble next quarter.

I was waiting for redemption chatter and it has begun.

Do a slow build over the next 30 days.

I have a feeling you are going to like the results come Christmas.

If the ruling on the FED holds, it could come much earlier than that.

Either way, it is coming.

I am not a professional trader, so buyer beware.

SKF is trading just under $30 per share right now.

I predict that it will trade above $200 at some point during the 4th quarter.

That is my prediction and I am sticking to it.

I pray that I am wrong, but I am betting that I am right.

God Bless.

Disclaimer: This is a highly volitile ETF. This is not for the faint of heart. And do not bank on this play for food money.

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Water purification...

in India is where it's at and where it will be for the next 15 to 20 years!

Get on board and ride it....

http://www.bionicsro.com/

This is what it's going to sound like when your trade tanks

http://www.audiosparx.com/sa/archive/Sports/Scuba-sounds/Div...

"Creator is a judicial creator. It was a man who gave away his liberty. So it had to be a man who would legally take that liberty and authority back. So Creator created another man (let's call him second man) who did exactly that." D.W.B.

"GINO" = Government In Name Only

I can't tell which one I like better.

This one

http://www.audiosparx.com/sa/archive/Cartoon/Laughter/Wah-wa...

This one

http://www.audiosparx.com/sa/play/port_lofi.cfm/sound_iid.60812

or this one..

http://www.sadtrombone.com/

I think I like the third one the best.

Rhino, since you probably carry around a boombox, playing your own theme music, maybe you could download these sounds. It is usually what I hear when I see one of your infamous "predictions". I just hope no one was stupid enough to take your advice.

★★★★★★
http://www.documentarywire.com/
http://freedocumentaries.net/c/All/

Obviously I am going to be wrong on my prediction ...

But I am right at a break even point today ...

Equal parts SKF and DGP ....

I am going to stick it out through the first quarter ...

The earnings reports are not going to be good ...

Helicopter Ben is pulling out liquidity ...

We still have a real chance of severe volitility ...

I think I am going to slowly add a long position to the volitility index ...

And as a hedge ...

I am going to hold onto GE which I added at $8.50.

Utility stocks are giving away a huge div. right now ...

That is a recipe to buy on the dips.

Tech is a complete mess ...

If you want a long term play ...

AMD is bound to benefit from a broken Intel.

And for a lottery ticket ...

Check out the inter trade price for RP becoming our next Pres.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

Hey Rhino, where do you see

Hey Rhino,
where do you see Ben is pulling liquidity?

“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul

Well ...

He has publicly stated it ...

but dismissing that ...

He can't add to it ...

It would be impossible by law at this point.

And if you dismiss law then my gold play will skyrocket.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

Knock Knock. Is this Rhino's casino?

SKF is getting close to $200. It's over $25 today.

Barack Obama, Salesman of the year for firearms, ammo, gold and silver. Admission; "I am a Muslim" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCAffMSWSzY&feature=player_em...
~~ ~~~ ~~~~ ~~~ ~>> "Is Anybody Out There?"
http://www.youtube.com/wat

"GINO" = Government In Name Only

I am up on my play.

Equal parts long PM and short financials.

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/104958#comment-1167450

Approx. break even points for my plays ...

dgp - 22.5
sky - 27.0

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

Still way ahead of the game.

And poised to hit a home run.

Of course not everyone can make money EVERY SINGLE DAY. I am not worthy.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

Still way ahead of the game.

dgb - 30
skf - 25

And, to date, I have been absolutely wrong on my play.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

That's why I call it VOO DOO trading.

Even VOO DOO works sometimes.

The Last Hope Trader
Forensic Trading For Times of High Crime

"GINO" = Government In Name Only

Right, in other words "guessing"

That's what people who don't know how to read charts do. They guess. They speculate. Throw shit against the wall and see what sticks.

The Last Hope Trader
Forensic Trading For Times of High Crime

"GINO" = Government In Name Only

so what happens to those of us who . . .

it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--

are, quite literally, the HARD-working "poor"?

hm?

Any brilliant ideas beyond what those of us who have survived to this point have HAD to do (garden, eat simply, not buy things, live in small houses, etc.)

I am looking around me from a working poor perspective and am seeing a lot of scary things:

many of our working poor friends are having hours cut drastically (including us; the one of us who works 'full-time' does not work full-time anymore, but still works at other things; the one of us who does not work full time works VERY hard on all the other things; not all of the working poor, including us, get any kind of government help; we have not ever!)--

--professionals with high income with whom we sometimes rub shoulders (which is rare) are letting those around them know that things are NOT good in their professions; one harried medical professional in our church community recently told a group of people near whom one of us was standing, "we are struggling; we are really struggling; our patient loads are WAY down!"--

another professional confided that a dental practice was struggling--

so, um--

it looks like those of us who have always had less will have even MORE of the less?

isn't it always the poor who suffer the most; we have less to lose, but when we lose it we have nothing--

it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--

I am with you

We were sleeping, and they just ruined us. First, we trusted our retirement accounts to "the professionals" who gutted our accounts in the dotcom crash. We also did the "conservative" thing and bought an affordable home and just lived there for 12 years. We were on track to be debt-free when the house sold. We anticipated doubling our money when we listed the house. It is now worth about what we paid 14+ years ago. 12 years of equity - gone. Rather than being debt free, we have 2 mortgages. So it goes.
The final blow was my career being blown out from under me. I reacted to SSRIs, barely lived to tell the tale and now am unemployable in my profession. I have tried to start 4 businesses, and had to give up before I got a single customer all 4 times due to some government garbage that I could not afford to buy my way around.
My husband completed his degree JUST in time to save our bacon. We are paycheck to paycheck now, although we are pretty good at scrambling and scraping to squeeze a little extra here and there, but enough to go out to dinner, not go play risky investment games.

Truth exists, and it deserves to be cherished.

Start delivering pizzas or valet cars ...

Build up a $10,000 net egg. It is really all you need.

Of course you need to aquire knowledge ...

And trade as if the money were poker chips.

The nest egg is the hardest for most.

For me, it was the discipline to acquire knowledge.

I am quite lazy.

But the more I learned, the more excited I got, and the more thirst for knowledge there was.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

these shorts are a little

these shorts are a little risky, i do own some srs but i am not willing to put anymore money into them. ive heard too many bad things from too many credible or semi-credible economists

Is it Time to sell SKF?

Yesterday, I was in the black on my SKF position. Today I'm back to a sizeable loss. I believe that most banks and financial institutions are insolvent, but when you can get free money from the government, that is a huge advantage. Also, all of the new money being created seems to be going Indiscriminately into stocks, bonds and commodities. Or did we just mis-calculate the timing of the crash. Is it still a few months out. It's hard to believe that in the week that CIT files for bankruptcy and we get another half million+ unemployed that we have this huge stock market rally.
 
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

 
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

Any predictions on when SRS

Any predictions on when SRS will skyrocket?

I would stay away.

This one might not even exist this time next year.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

Volitility could escalate over the weekend.

Could be a black Monday on Monday.

I give it a 25% chance.

I hope you all have listened to my input.

I wish you nothing but success.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

I hope and pray that I am wrong but ...

I am betting that I am right.

God bless the dailypaul.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

A question

For those who know more about these things than I do: is there any sort of time decay on leveraged etf's? I was reading a few posts on the google finance forums and somebody was trying to explain how leveraged etf's such as SKF or any of the ultrashorts (DXD, SDS etc.) leak value over time. Just curious if this is true or if anyone knows anything about it.

"The sinews of war are infinite money" ~ Marcus Tullius Cicero

"The sinews of war are infinite money" ~ Marcus Tullius Cicero

An Answer

There is decay because of the ETF's taking a cut in fees. Fees for these types of ETF's are much higher than average.
 
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

 
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

The effect of fees is negligible

Look at the performance of the S&P 500 from 11/20/08 to 3/09/09, a 10% drop in value. Now look at the performance of SDS (an ETF 2X short the S&P 500) during the same period; it also dropped 10% in value. Ideally it should have GAINED 20% during this period because it is 2X short the S&P 500, but because of the unpredictable way these funds work, it underperformed its ideal target by 30%!!! This was not the fault of the people running the ETF, it is just the way the mathematics work for these funds. In general, the more volatile the market, the more these funds underperform, which I sort of explained below, don't know if it makes much sense though :-)

Sort of.

They can leak value over time, or they can do the opposite of leaking value. It all depends on the volatility of the markets. If the markets are not very volatile, then you will perform better than 2X or 3X the underlying index you are tracking. If the markets are highly volatile, then you will underperform 2X or 3X the underlying index, and the amount by which you underperform can be pretty severe. For an illustration of this, look at the charts on pages 20-24 of the SDS statement of additional information:
http://proshares.com/media/prospectus/statement_of_additiona...

I think on average you are more likely to underperform 2X or 3X the index you are tracking than you are to outperform it; I don't think it is a zero sum game. I think that's why people say beware and don't hold them for a long time.

Note that the above is true with all short ETF's, even if they aren't leveraged.

The short answer is yes ...

The value will not exacly reflect the risk ...

But unless you have a substantial portfolio ....

And a great deal of knowledge and access (all of which also costs money) ...

It is a pretty good ETF.

The only thing that is not reflected beyound what I have just said is ...

The risk of government coming in and outlawing shorts, including puts, outright. Like an edict.

Which is possible.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

I still stand by my prediction.

The jig is up.

The front loading ERs are just about over.

A big correction may be in the cards this Monday or Next.

I stress MAY.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

beware

all leverage etf will go down to zero, The more volatility the faster it will go to zero. it is basic math. I use some of my casino money and buy put option on both FAS and FAZ but it have not been as volatile as I hope. Shorting them both would have been a better strategy.