Depression Debate: "Is this a Depression? It's time to stop pretending otherwise." -- Mish
Here's the deal.
-- The US is in the midst of the steepest decline in home price on record.
-- Short-term treasury yields went negative and are still close to zero.
-- Long-term treasury yields hit record lows.
-- Foreclosures hit record highs.
-- The stock market had the biggest collapse since the Great Depression.
-- U-6 unemployment is a whopping 16.8% and still rising.
-- The PPI (producer price index) had the biggest drop in 59 years.
-- The CPI is at -1.3% is declining at the fastest pace since 1950 according to government calculations. The real CPI by my calculations is -6.2% (See What's the Real CPI? for details).
U-6 does not count recent graduates looking for a job but living at home in search of one. It also does not count self-employed real estate agents who have not made a sale in a year. However it does count all the "self-employed" selling trinkets on Ebay making $200 a month or less. I do not have totals for that, but structural unemployment plus structural underemployment is likely North of 20%.
One does not see any of that that in the first chart. Nor does one see falling wages, the likelihood of Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade, massive bank failures, Food-Stamps Reach 33.8 Million in April, 5th Consecutive Monthly Record, or the ongoing commercial real estate bust with One Sixth Of All Construction Loans In Trouble.
These are characteristics of a depression, not a recession. It's time to stop pretending otherwise.
Continues: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/depressio...
No it's not depression ,
No it's not depression , it's CONTROLLED DEMOLITION.Good people do Good deeds
Good people make it happen
The other day, I drove past the fancy restaurant I took my prom
date to in high school. We had to make reservations like a month in advance and it was super classy. When I drove by the other day the sign outside said "Half Price Burgers on Tuesdays"
Its a depression and it's barely getting started.
Explore Orthodox Christianity
Of course it's a depression
Can you imagine how in your face it would be if there were not food stamps? I am not endorsing food stamps, only observing those very millions now on food stamps would be standing in a bread line.
My favorite thing about what
My favorite thing about what we call it is not so much the type of decline but how "Great" everyone seems to think it is.
Isn't this author the same guy
who made false claims against Peter Schiff to try to discredit him. F*** this tool.
Yes sentinel, that is true. Here is the link.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-sch...
I wouldn't call him a tool
He is a Ron Paul supporter and avidly berates the Fed at every chance he gets. And I do think at least some of his claims about Shiff hold water, even though I like Shiff more than him.
"There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: The regeneration of the inner man."
—Tolstoy
"The body is but a vessel for the soul,
A puppet which bends to the soul's tyranny.
And lo, the body is not eternal,
For it must feed on the flesh of others,
Lest it return to the dust whence it came.
Therefore the soul deceives and despises."
yes he is... but on this he
yes he is... but on this he is right... the problem is the idiot like prechter, calls the metals wrong.. they forget one thing.. the US does not call the shots any longer.. just because the US suffers ,does not mean the rest of the world suffers.. this is their fatal mistake.. notice how in a deep recession going on for 2 full years now that gold is almost at it all time high? silver is up nicely.. according to prechter gold should be at 200.00. Yes we are heading into or all already are in a depression.. there is no question. the thing that I hate about mish or prechter is that they tell people you will be able to buy gold at 120.00/ounce and silver at 2.00.. they also seem to think that depression means deflation... they are wrong there also... Ron Paul has said it over and over agin.. we are in for an inflationary depression... yippy kiyay mf'ers
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
Prechter is early. He does
Prechter is early. He does that a lot. He's eventually right.
No you big dumb dumb. He is
No you big dumb dumb. He is brilliant and my go-to source for market climate advice.
From the comments...
David Rosenberg very widely read, and he called it a depression today:
"The U.S. economy is actually 9.4 million jobs short of being anywhere remotely close to being fully employed, which is why any inflation that can somehow be created by the Fed is simply going to be unsustainable noise along a fundamental downtrend in pricing power. After last Friday’s report, we have now lost 6.9 million positions that have been cut during this recession and we have to count in the additional 2.5 million jobs that need to be created — but never were — just to absorb the new entrants into the labour market. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is now 16.8%, so to suggest that this down-cycle was anything but a depression is basically a misrepresentation of the facts."
He also used the other d-word:
"For the first time in the post-WWII era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents."
~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~
Mish wrote this on the 8th
"There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: The regeneration of the inner man."
—Tolstoy
"The body is but a vessel for the soul,
A puppet which bends to the soul's tyranny.
And lo, the body is not eternal,
For it must feed on the flesh of others,
Lest it return to the dust whence it came.
Therefore the soul deceives and despises."