The Winnable RJ Harris CandidacySubmitted by jgibbons on Thu, 09/17/2009 - 11:41
Original Press Release http://rjharris2010.blogspot.com/2009/09/poll-shows-close-ra...
Our recent poll has received a lot of press. Most of the commentary has been positive, but there are still some concerns. In addition to the poll, we've seen a lot of nay-sayers in regards to the Harris campaign and other Liberty Candidate campaigns. I hope this post will change some minds.
RJ is at 31% in the poll but even with the undecided 15% he still can't win.
Something interesting is that the poll only included likely republican primary voters (i.e. party establishment folks for the most part). This didn't take into account the thousands of constituents around the district who never voted in a primary and are attending tea parties and 912 group meetings. We believe we'll attract another 10% from new primary voters alone.
This means we are at 31% old + 10% new + 15% undecided = 56%
Of course we have to convert the 15% undecided and this doesn't even take into account votes we can still take away from Cole. Hence, 50% should be looking even more plausible.
Harris funds are low.
We’ve raised almost $23,000. But let’s put things into perspective for a minute.
If we analyze all of Tom Cole’s past incumbency elections (2004, 2006 and 2008) we can see that RJ has almost reached the same fundraising levels as the top contender to Tom Cole in the General Election. In other words, in 2006 the Democrat raised just under $30,000; the most raised by his opponent in all three elections. Tom Cole spends almost all of his $1,000,000 that he normally raises. Why is this important?
- RJ will raise more than every one of Cole’s opponents for the past three elections if things continue at the pace they are going.
- Cole is facing a tougher Primary Race than his past three General Election races, and he hasn’t faced a primary since 2002.
- Cole has only faced progressives and big government republicans in every election. RJ is far more conservative than Cole. Cole voted for the TARP bailouts, and he has voted for some other incredibly surprising things that we will announce in the coming weeks . (HINT: look up his voting record on economic issues in 2007.)
- Cole wastes his money on various needless services. Let me clarify: Cole has raised $178,476 this cycle and has all ready spent over $80,000. His web presence hasn’t improved, and his advertising efforts have not increased. One must ask; what is he spending all that money on? Some possibilities are staff, consultation, paid “volunteers”, polling, expensive HQ’s luxuries, dinners for his big donors, and old time campaign methods that won't cut it in 2009.
- Our campaign is not wasting money on any of those things above. Our monthly-operating costs are less than $1,500. Every other dime we spend is on name recognition, travel and advertising.
- What does all this mean? If Tom Cole wants any funds left for a general election race—assuming he beats RJ – he’ll have to be more frugal. A reasonable assumption is that he’ll divide his likely $1,000,000 in half. So we are up against $500,000, right? No. Cole will most likely blow $300,000 on operating costs (staff, HQ’s costs, polling, consultation, paid “volunteers”, etc.). We are now down to $200,000. At least 25% of this will be wasted on ineffective “old campaigning” advertising techniques. We are down to $150,000. Suddenly the $23,000 RJ has in his war chest seems a lot higher. If we were able to accomplish what we have with $23,000, imagine what we can do with $250,000.
One Last tidbit:
The last Republican Primary for OK’s 4th district turned out 36,526 voters. Tom Cole received 21,789 votes to win the nomination. Adding in some population changes among other things, we can presume that this primary will turn out at least 50,000 voters. RJ needs to convince 30,000 voters to show up and vote for him in the primary.
Lately I’ve heard some speak that we don’t have a chance, or the Liberty Candidates don’t have a chance, I hope the above makes it overwhelmingly clear that our election is very winnable. This openness is the same openness you can expect from RJ when he is in office. If you haven't donated yet, I hope this will convince you that your Federal Reserve notes will be put to good use.
Tom Cole and the establishment have a storm coming their way!
Thank you for the support.