The everything you need to know about climate change thread.
Submitted by dantheman on Mon, 12/07/2009 - 02:44
HI all. i know we have some very smart and knowledgeable people here at the dailypaul. I would like to make a comprehensive and complete thread about everything we all collectively know about climate change. that is- evidence that it's not man made, facts on climategate, etc, pretty much anything and everything that we here on the DP know about this subject. I am currently in the process of educating my brother on the the climate change hoax and I feel that we should have a complete guide and pool of information at our disposal, that we can use to make informed arguments against man-made climate change. So please share any information- websites, scientific papers, movies, etc that we can use in our mission to inform.





















Global warming??
http://www.accuweather.com/watches-warnings.asp?partner=accu...
Sidestepping the real issue
I'm as easily sidetracked by these intellectual discussions as anyone, but they are really sidestepping the real issue which is whether the proposed legislation is authorized by the constitution. This usually ends the debate, especially since most people who support AGW tend to know very little about the constitution.
Some other arguments I use:
In the '70's Global Cooling was all the rage. If we had enacted legislation based on this 'science', then, assuming global warming theory is correct, how long would it have taken to convince the bureaucrats that the legislation needed to be changed when the 'science' changed to warming? Meanwhile, our tax dollars would be going toward counterproductive and even 'dangerous' activities, and the same is likely true of the 'science' today.
Similarly, how much longer would bloodletting have been practiced if the constitution were formed with a Health Department? This one I used before the current health care debate, so now I usually don't use it since it tends to force a segue into a health care debate.
Watts Up With That? is about the best blog I've found for tracking the 'skeptics', and about half the action is in the comments, which are all too often way over my head. For the first time that I'm aware, Anthony Watts just made a sticky on a thread titled "Smoking Gun at Darwin Zero" and if you can understand everything in that post, please post a layman's summary for the rest of us, but from what I can gather "homogenized" data is the issue. A recent post featured a video with a sixth-grader and his father very basically demonstrating the danger of homogenizing data because of the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI).
Anthony Watts also has a project he runs called Surfacestations.org. From the summary page of the Mid term census report [pdf]:
I strongly recommend reading that report as it so clearly and simply demonstrates the weakness of the temperature record itself.
It seems to me that if we cannot trust the raw data that is used to create the hockey stick graph, then we have no evidence of any temperature trend - warming, cooling, or otherwise.
Mobile-Friendly U.S. Constitution
..
this was posted on another thread but ill post it here too..
"the great global warming swindle" its a good documentary.
http://neithercorp.us/media
Chaos
To understand why 95% of the computer modeling that "supports" anthropogenic global warming is bunk you must understand a little chaos theory.
According to the science of chaos, there are systems - both man-made and natural - that have some very special characteristics. One of the most important characteristics of these chaotic systems is that future conditions of the system cannot be predicted because the course of the system is hypersensitive to initial conditions. In other words, it is not possible to predict what the system will be doing in the future based on current conditions because immeasurably small characteristics of the current condition will be amplified into significance by the very nature of the system. So unknown current conditions will become significant in the future.
For an easy example, imagine dropping a rubber ball on a concrete surface. No matter how carefully you drop it and how accurate you are at hitting the same spot on the concrete, your ability to predict where the ball will land after its first bounce is minimal. After the second bounce the predictability is dramatically less. After three bounces, forget it. The immeasurable conditions of the initial system (dust on the ball, subtle wind currents, tiny contours in the concrete) are amplified into greater importance each time the ball bounces until they have thrown the system far beyond your ability to predict.
The Earth's climate is a chaotic system. In fact, one of the pioneers in chaos theory had his first contact with chaos when he was trying to model weather patterns using a computer. It is no exaggeration to say that weather and climate are the paradigm chaotic systems. Future weather conditions (climate) simply cannot be predicted with any reliability with computers.
There ARE strange attractors (look it up if you are interested) in climate that can be tracked. But they do not allow prediction of future change.
Computer modeling of future earth climate change is simply crap.
I found the analysis
on this link to be very informative.
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
Water vapor is the over-riding player in the greenhouse effect, and man-made CO2 is basically a non-factor.
climate change propaganda
climate change propaganda is what happens when science is mistaught or eliminated from school curriculums because of an agenda to make money & gain power.
With 34 Countries
now openly acknowledging that they have weather modification programs along with HAARP (and the Russian and Chinese equivalents); why aren't these being discussed and challenged in the context of mitigating "Climate Change"? Why is noone questioning all the "weather tinkering" by governments that is factually occurring?
If they wanna talk about something meaningful at Copenhagen, perhaps they might discuss the idea of stopping F&$%ING WITH THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE.
...right on Gary...
...I find it very interesting that just as more folks are becoming aware of this, plans to artificially reflect the sunlight away from earth to counter global warming are becoming subtly, yet more vocal in the public awarness also...
...These pricks really know what they are doing and how to propogandize it...
...The good news is word is spreading...rapidly, about the whole scam and the depths of what is really going on...
...We just need to expose them and their program faster than they can implement it...
RON2012PAUL...The r3VOLution continues...
"I always win"
http://youtu.be/Xtl2ZuJpG9M
+GOLD and SILVER are money+
http://www.youtube.com/user/ThisIsRogueLiberty
Excellent point, Gary! I
Excellent point, Gary! I heard about the Russians and Chinese having weather-tinkering programs earlier this year! Does anybody know whether Tesla was into this? (I think he was but not sure)
Tesla's work
was cited in the patents for HAARP. Wireless power, renewable energy, particle weaponry, disaster machines, and much more were created a century ago by Nikola Tesla, and all his plans were classified or seized by the (now defunct office) 'Alien Property Custodian' upon his death.
Is this some of it? How could I know...
Then there's the crazy: that he had an assistant called George W. Scherf, (which has some validity if you read his biographies) who was actually Prescott Bush...if you believe photos and deathbed confessions.
LibertyDefined.org | If | Not Perfect
CARBON is our friend..
CO2 = 0.54% (thats 1/2 of one per cent)
of ALL gasses in atmosphere.
oceans = biggest continuous emission of CO2
its a mutually satisfying relationship:
flora (plants, trees, etc) inhale-need and love CO2
flora then, exhales OXYGEN.
fauna (you, me, all living creatures) inhale OXYGEN
fauna then, exhales CO2.
Heat and mass transfer anyone?
I know there are other nerds on this site that have probably taken a heat and mass transfer class and some thermodynamics...mix in some applied differential equations and multivariable calculus and that should cover bare bones behind atmospheric modeling calculations (I think). Anyone that has done extensive analysis work with mathematical models knows that once you start running with multiple unknowns you really are just playing with black magic.
I know on large mechanical structures its easy to calibrate your model...you just run tests with strain gauges and check to make sure the stress line up in the real life system with the model. But you can control nearly every thing both in the model and what is going on in the test (for the most part).
Now with these climate models there are far more things you simply can't test. We don't have another earth that we can shine a sun on or shoot solar flares at to see how it reacts. Nor do we have anyway of controlling volcanic activity from the "million degree core" of the earth. The biggest matrix I have ever solved by writing the code out myself with all the inputs was 36 by 36. And that didn't even have any partial differential equations in it. No Fourier transforms, no la grange multiples, just some basic Newtonian physics and calculus. Still got most of the stuff to turn out but a negative sign must have been wrong because portions of my output were inverted.
These climate models have economics in them. And we all know what a Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change would use for a logical economic theory (Keynesian). The models are so complex b/c what they are trying to predict is complex. There are to many variables with varying magnitudes to track or dial a signal to noise ratio on. Heck it would second only to trying to model human action play out if every time a butterfly flaps its wings some change in weather occurs. And the Austrians say you can't model human action.
Ok sorry for the massive side bar. Back To heat and mass. Lets just roll with the layer of co2. Its high in our atmosphere. Our atmosphere is very turbulent and surrounded by cold outer space. How does a thin layer of gas work as a very good insulator in that instance? wouldn't conduction be quite high? Wouldn't the turbulence speed conduction through more contact between hot layers and cool layers?
If I put a cooler of beer in the oven will it matter more if I insulate the cooler twice as much or if I turn up the heat in the oven 15%?
Some answers
CO2 extends throughout the different levels of the atmosphere. It Allows Visible and UV light to pass, and absorbs IR radiation. When something like blacktop absorbs light, it emits heat in the form of IR radiation ( among other things) The CO2 in the atmosphere aborbs the IR light causing the surroundings to heat up.
So yeah, If I had a Bottle of gas, and would shine IR light through it, it would warm up more if it had more CO2 in it.
Now the problem with AGW. Temperature is not homogeneous, nor is it at equilibrium. Therefore it is difficult to characterize a "global temperature" with regards to location. There is also time changes in temperature. do we average over the course of a day, or do we take highs, or lows, or at a particular time each day ? ? How High off the ground ( or deep in the ocean ) do we measure temperature. Currently the IGPP uses surface temperatures, but satelite measured temps vary from these. And ocean currernts, things like el nino effect these, but are not accounted for in the models. Plus, there have been problems with interfernces causing temperature differences, and data has been re-evaluated, and corrected for urban heat islands ( heat generated by Cities) are these corrections reasonable ? ?
With CO2 there is also a saturation point, where it will have absorbed all the IR light of a particular wavelength possible. -Its like when your brother in law comes over, and only drinks Sam Adams, but not Bud light. There can be plenty of beer, but he is maxed out. It doesn't matter how many more borothr in laws visit - your beer supply will remain the same.
Then there is the problem of the Ice Ages - Current climate models do not predict these. These would be much more damaging than any warming.
There is also the problem of predicting past temperatures - the data is only reasonable from the 60's. Prior it is not a complete picture, and often relies on things like tree rings and Ice cores which are subject to sampling and analysis errors.
OK I didn't know IR was absorbed by co2
I thought Co2 layer was just acting like an insulator (or not letting the radiant heat escape to space). The same for water vapor or methane (also green house gases or so I am told).
Does the heat transfer between these layers play any significance? That is my real question. I see how a layer of gas works as a insulator between two sheets of glass, but how does it work as a insulator between two gas layers?
This is a good idea.
This is a good idea. Personally, I have some questions regarding climate change. I'll search it on google and find twenty sources saying twenty different things. If scientists aren't credible anymore, who is?
Does CO2 rise or fall in air?
I was suprised at the answer.
Explore Orthodox Christianity
Well,
CO2 is denser than dry air...
LibertyDefined.org | If | Not Perfect
Monckton convinced me.
Here's his talk. Here's a very similar talk more British-sounding. Here are some rarely seen interactions by the media. And Monckton on the Canadian media, where he explains Gore won't debate him. Here's some evidence it's an "old" idea.
I keep track of the effective eye-openers I find here.
Couldn't hurt to check here or search the forums, either.
LibertyDefined.org | If | Not Perfect