Gold Is Not Falling
Submitted by Doug Eberhardt on Sat, 12/12/2009 - 13:35
in
Recent purchasers of Gold are upset lately with the 8.5% drop in the U.S. Dollar price of gold this week. But what most of these buyers don’t understand is that gold stayed the same. It was what gold is priced in that changed.
That’s right. Gold is just a shiny rock as all the Gold naysayers like to say. It didn’t change in the last week. It’s still a shiny rock. But the U.S. Dollar appreciated of late thus causing the U.S. Dollar price of Gold to fall. To understand this further take a look at how Gold has evolved over time.
Read the rest here (hey...you might learn something new!):
About the Dollar Index
About the Dollar Index reversal. Reversals don't go staight up, just as declines don't go straight down. One of the things that signals a reversal is when EVERYONE is convinced that the trend is going to continue unabated. When the consensus becomes so polorized in one direction the everyone already has their money positioned in that direction. With everyone's money positioned it can't continue further and it reverses.
Take a look at the chart of the Dollar going back to 1971. The Dollar dipped down to .8o in 1991 and then in 1992, but no one was screaming the sky is falling, even though it fell from 1.65. Then it retraced 50% of that decline into 2001. Nobody was ever screaming the sky is falling. And then from the 50% retracement that topped in 2001 it fell to its recent low in 2008. It was at this time that everyone began to see the end is near. And at this decline virtually EVERYONE sees the end of the Dollar. That is the EXACT emotion that is expected at the final bottom. The Dollar Bear Market began in 1985 and ended in 2008. But the general public did not become aware the Dollar was in a Bear Market until around 2004-5.
http://www.themacrotrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/us-...
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" B.Bunny "Scwewy Wabbit!"E. Fudd
People's Awareness Coalition: Deprogramming Sequence
in 71, 91, 92, you did have
in 71, 91, 92, you did have an almost total collapse of the economy like we had in 08. You did have to bail bankers out to the tune of 12 trillion dollars or have a national debt 0f 12 trillion. what was the debt then compared to today? How much more money did the deficit go up from 2000 to today.. that is your answer.
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
Yeah...
I think the difference is that prior to 2000 there really wasn't any competition to the U.S. Dollar. The world was pretty much stuck with it.
But once the EURO entered the picture, from 2000 on, things changed.
At least that's what I base my analysis on.
If you follow the dollar index, Elliott Wave, Delta Timing, Fibonacci, etc. etc., one can get a good idea of how to trade.
Thanks for your input...
Definitely some interesting times we live in...
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
please read.
please read this and tell me what you all think.
http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
please read this article and
please read this article and tell me what all of you think?
http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
God
for a moment I read your posting as "God is not falling" hehehe
bump for gold and silver
hugs*))
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"How can we justify to the unemployed and underemployed in the United States the incredible cost of maintaining a global empire?" - Dr. Ron Paul
Last week's terrorist attack
Last week's terrorist attack didn't help gold either.
POP
lol.... gold has come down
lol.... gold has come down from 1228 to 1070.00and you think that is some kind of big fall?
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
What "terrorist attack" are you referring to?
You mean the staged false flag?
he's talking about the kid
he's talking about the kid who set off a firecracker in the plane.
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
But many people buy gold to
But many people buy gold to escape the falling dollar?
And now it is reversing.
'POP' goes the bubble.
LOL...and now the suckers left holding the gold bag are scrambling to do damage control: 'Gold isn't down...just the price of gold'
Bwhahahahahahaaa
remeber the reversal about a
remeber the reversal about a year and a half ago? the dollar went from .69 to .89. then what happened? back down to .74 and noe to around the .78 area? and you call this a reverse? where was the dollar in 1999?
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
from .74 to .78 is hardly a
from .74 to .78 is hardly a reverse. when you see the euro at 1.25 to the dollar then call me.
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
now that I read your post again, I see you were referring to som
sorry...
but at least my reply made sense from a EURO standpoint...
lol
I have trouble with this posting and reply set up....
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
rebelsoul..
Seeing a trend early is key to profits wouldn't you agree?
There is no reason for the EURO to be near it's all time highs which is why I wrote the original article about a month ago.
The EURO at $1.25 might be a good place to sell, not buy IMO...a 16% profit.
We'll see what shakes, but at least I had been warning people about gold topping out so the "traders" could take profit.
My father was a commodities broker. He said the number one thing that kills traders is "greed."
BTW, I listened to Dennis Gartman at an event say that he is wrong 80% of the time. But the difference between he, and other traders, and the reason he can charge so much for his investment letter, is when he's wrong, he gets out of the trade and when he's right, he lets it ride.
He called gold's top in March of last year. Why did he call its top? Because gold wasn't reacting the way it should with the news that was coming out.
Everyone has their theories...
As for me, I just call it as I see it.
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
On my site...
I've been telling people that since the U.S. dollar didn't break below it's March 2008 low to be cautious and consider investing in gold via the EURO.
The EURO was up the past year or so for no reason. They have as big a problem as the U.S. does with GDP.
Buying gold in EURO's made sense.
Dennis Gartman is buying gold in POUNDS.
It is the price of gold in various currencies that matters (what gold is priced in). Gold doesn't change.
It's still a shiny rock.
Do you disagree with this?
A U.S. holder of gold cares not that it falls to $700 or lower on its way to $2,000 and higher.
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
you think gold is in a
you think gold is in a bubble? a bubble that has lasted 10 years now. so tell me what government policy change has occured to pop this so called bubble? the fed and Fed government have actually made things worse.. Its the Defecit stupid.
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
Gold as part of modern survivalism
There is a great movement going on inspired by the Modern Survival Philosophy.
http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/modern-survival-philosophy
There are ten tenets to this philosophy, but the first one is the foundation: "Everything you do to “prepare” for emergencies, disasters or economic turmoil should be blended into your life in a way that improves your life even if nothing disastrous ever occurs."
So does buying gold fit in here?
I say yes.
If there is a medium-sized economic disaster, gold can be extremely helpful.
And if there is no disaster, gold is somewhere between a bonafide investment and a savings account...either way, it improves your life.
However, gold costs money...so you must prioritize gold amongst other investments. Other Modern Survivalism tenets say to get out of debt, invest in a garden, buy land, get a tax education, store food, buy disaster kits, buy renewable energy resources, save an emergency fund, get good insurance, and start several businesses for multiple streams of income.
I'd definately put all those things before buying gold. And I'd throw in getting a great education and buying mutual funds with a great long-term history before buying gold too. However, the advice "save an emergency fund" would, after collecting a firm stash of cash, include gold.
But if you buy gold thinking it is some sort of shortcut to getting rich, then that qualifies as a get-rich-quick scheme...and those simply don't work.
boru... you don't have a clue
boru... you don't have a clue about what is coming.. do you? buy mutual funds?
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
spare me your chicken little
spare me your chicken little bullshit
Jeez, I even reached out to you chicken littles with the Modern Survivalist stuff. I even said gold can be a good investment (just not the best in the entire world)...and you still jump down my throat.
Do you actually think that gold should be everyone's number one priority? That they should sell everything, buy gold, and wait for armageddon? No, of course not.
Well here are the 2009 stats: gold up 30%, my mutual funds up 70%. But am I being too selective with my date range? Of course I am, but to make a point. The gold pushers are also too selective when they choose only the years that gold has surged. When you do real research over long term, any moron can see that the market beats gold hands down.
But, according to you mutual funds are a complete waste of money...cuz I don't know "what's coming".
Only you know "what's coming".
So tell us, CL, "what's coming"?
and any moron can see that
and any moron can see that gold has absolutley beat the crap out of the market for the past 10 years. Any moron can see the reasons why the market has done nothing. Those of us who bought gold at 255.00 and 275.00 in 1999 saw what was coming in the 2000's. what came has not changed. we have the most corrupt government the world has ever seen. we are still in 2 wars, expanding to 4 pakistan, yemen- the governments tax receipts have fallen like a rock, so where does the government get the money to pay its bills since tax money has dried up? THEY PRINT IT! they ruin the currency to save their own necks. Now of course most morons in this country do not see that because of their brainwashing they received from the public school system also run by the same corrupt government. The fundementals for gold to still climb have not changed.
This time frame kinda reminds me of the last time gold fell from 1032.00 to 750ish.. But oil etc etc are not doing the same things they did at that time. I think its hillarious to watch people say oh Gold is going to take a great fall.. from 1228 to 900.00? that is just a healthy correction..
This is your porblem.. 5 to 6 billion ounces of gold in the world today. 6+ billion people.. when this house of cards does finally collapse and it will, those of you who held out for 700.00 dollar gold won't find and ounce. unless you want to pay 5-10k per ounce. at that point the FRN's you have won't buy an ounce of gold anyway. they will be used for toilet paper. China is buying, India is buying.. the list goes on and on. Go to jsmineset.com read what the experts who know this market are saying.. Jim Sinclair made a 1 million dollar bet that gold would be at or over 1200.00 an ounce by 1/1/2011.. No one took him up on the bet and he made the wager when gold was at 700.00 3 years ago.
he got tons of crap about his prediction. he was actually a little late on his prediction.. Now go and see what numbers Sinclair is predicting 3 to 6 years from now.
to say gold is gonna fall etc etc etc is ignorance at its finest. Yes you do run into corrections etc. Gold will top 5000.00 an ounce before 2020. the only thing that would keep gold from going that high is if Ron Paul is elected as president in 2012.00
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
Instead of answering the
Instead of answering the question, you debated something I didn't say...inferring that I said something that I didn't.
Anyway, we both agree that gold had a healthy correction. This correction means that the price of gold was over-inflated...aka: bubble. And the correction was deflating that bubble a bit.
I think gold is still over-inflated...thus still a bubble.
Housing is still over-inflated too. Like housing, barring more fear-mongering tactics, gold will have to go down and stagnate like housing for a while just like it went down and stagnate after the gold surge of the 70's.
When will the current gold surge die out? I don't know, but the recent correction is definately an omen. The Dow/Gold ratio indicates gold has peaked...meaning many investors have already moved from gold to stocks.
Heck, the stock market itself was over-inflated and already went through it's bubble popping...gold was merely one of the places that people parked their money until a few months ago. Frankly, there was a coordinated attempt to pump gold in the Neo-Con propaganda machine. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20091208/ts_ynews/ynews_ts1022
I don't think...
anyone is advocating gold as a "get rich quick" investment Boru, but that doesn't mean one can't trade it or in fact profit from it and invest in other areas.
You mention mutual funds with a good track record. The problem there is many managers that got them the "good track record" move on to other jobs. I would recommend a well diversified portfolio of ETFs before mutual funds as the fees are minimal. But a low expense mutual fund can be good too. Most people are "sold" mutual funds and just accept what the salesman offers without knowing they can do better.
Overall your other advice here is good: "to get out of debt, invest in a garden, buy land, get a tax education, store food, buy disaster kits, buy renewable energy resources, save an emergency fund, get good insurance, and start several businesses for multiple streams of income."
You might add to that list, to keep silent about your gold (and silver).
Thanks for sharing...
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
"Most people are "sold"
"Most people are "sold" mutual funds and just accept what the salesman offers without knowing they can do better."
True.
But ditto for gold.
gold is gold.. it does not
gold is gold.. it does not rely on a CEO to make the right decisions to bring value to it..
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
Absolutely Boru...
and that's why I wrote a book about it...
"Buy Gold Safely"
http://safelybuygold.com
Ignorance is bliss eh?
Happy New Year!
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog
Gold as an investment Wiki
Gold as an investment
Wiki has an interesting page about gold.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment
Some speculation !
Instead of wondering about the price of Gold, I'm wondering why the value of the U.S. dollar is rising in value while the overall American economy has shown only a very slight bump upward. Unemployment is still very high, banks are still being closed every week, a huge nationwide trucking company just parked all their trucks, { Arrow trucking from Tulsa Oklahoma }
and from what I've been reading foreign countries are no longer buying U.S. Treasury debt.
This brings up the question; Why is the U.S. dollar strengthening ?
Could it possibly be that Mr. Bernanke { The great depression expert } has taken a huge amount of dollars out of circulation, { less dollars in circulation make the value rise } the same ploy that was used to try to strengthen the dollar after the 1929 stock market crash?{ with terrible end results }
Personally, I'd rather hold physical Gold/Silver, rather than dollars !
beesting
When you are China and you
When you are China and you want to purchase a large amount of gold at a lower price what would you do knowing how the dollar is adverse to gold? You manipilate the market to buy cheaper. Nothing has changed in the fundemantals of this nation. Actually everything is worse from an economic point of view.
the debt is increasing, it is not being paid down.
“Defiance of God’s Law will eventually bring havoc to a society.” - Dr. Ron Paul
Depends on...
who you follow Beesting...
Some Elliott Wave theorists believe gold will fall (priced in U.S. dollars) to under $700. I follow one such EW individual who uses Delta Timing points in conjunction with EW. He's not perfect, but he does follow the historic cycles.
Almost every asset eventually turns in price. This could be "human action" that corealin speaks of, or it could be underlying fundamentals like with the housing sector.
The U.S. dollar had a nice fall, but it didn't break below it's March 2008 low. In fact, the Dollar index didn't even break 74.
My personal opinion is that the trade of a lifetime will be upon us in the next year possibly two, depending on the dollar and "external influences" that one needs to keep an eye on.
As long as one is not leveraged, again, they need not care that gold takes a hit for awhile. In fact, they can hedge themselves too, but they have to know what they're doing.
I know we're not Iceland, but they had better economic numbers than the U.S. did before their crisis where they saw the Krona lose 75% in value in one year.
It's interesting, but Peter Schiff used to always say, "there's a bull market somewhere," and Cramer from CNBC hijacked that saying and says it himself now.
There's much truth to that saying. Whether the market goes up....or down.
My Christian/Political Blog:
We the Serfs! Blog