The truth about polls
After reading the New York Times article and the results of the latest Newsweek poll, I thought I would point out something that hasn't been addressed by Ron Paul supporters enough. Yes, this is my first post, and I am already throwing math around. We fail to apply voter turnout. It's okay to say that cell phone users aren't included in polls. But let's assume that the "scientific" polls are accurate. Let's apply voter turnout to these numbers.
Say 50% of all voters turnout for the primaries and caucuses. Let's also assume that every Ron Paul supporter is going to vote. Let's also say that Ron Paul is polling at 10%. What that actually means is that Ron Paul will receive 20% of the vote, not 10%.
Now let's address the supposed first place front runner. Let's assume it is Mike Huckabee and he is polling at 30%. Let's give him 90% of the vote rather than 50%, just to address a potential worst case scenario. Therefore, Mike Huckabee receives 27% of the vote, not 30%.
The results: even though Ron Paul was polling 20% behind, the actual voting results was only 7% behind.
Can you imagine the difference in these numbers if the "scientific" polls actually were accurate? What if Ron Paul is actually at 20% in polling instead of 10%? This could even be somewhat true within the margin of error range of the same "scientific" poll.
I think it's time that whenever people say Ron Paul doesn't have a chance because he is so far behind in the polls that these people are reminded of voter turnout and how that changes the numbers.
polls
The truth about polls
On December 8th, 2007 MashTheGas says:
Here is a good tutorial on polling by Penn & Teller on Frank Luntz (remember this guy from the debate?). This is how "scientific polls" are done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If9E...
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Well now you mentioned polls
and that FORCES me to say
FYF!
I want to say how proud I am
I want to say how proud I am to be part of this process. Above you write that:
"Let's also assume that every Ron Paul supporter is going to vote."
Now if this was for any other campaign it would be a silly statement; but here because it is Ron Paul people you are talking about we ALL read it and say to ourselves, 'yes of course 100% of Ron Paul people will show up', and we keep reading.
That is the interesting thing. We have not met each other and yet we intuitively know that every Ron Paul supporter everywhere will appear when needed, and then some. Its a non issue; thats amazing.
And that my friends is why the other camps should be scared s**tless about the upcoming primaries. We are the special forces of elections.
Run, Ron Paul, Run!
Well depends upon what you mean by Ron Paul supporter
There is first probably about 10,000 HARD CORE Ron Paul supporters, these guys get out and knock on doors and do everything they can (thats just 200 per state, about average for people who have signed up as delegates from what I've seen)
There are over 100,000 medium level Ron Paul supporters, this is people who have already donated something to the campaign. If the 7% of Republican polls are correct there are 3.8 Million Ron Paul low level supporters (based on census estimate of 55 million Republicans). People that say they will vote for him.
Now we can assume each and every person who has donated or is active in the campaign WILL show up at the polls, this is a non issue.
The question now is how many of that 7% plus how many new republican signups or open primary votes will we get?
The smart guys that do the
The smart guys that do the true polling have us in 3rd right now for Iowa. Add the blimp and the TeaParty news who knows we may pull a second.
The Polls are nothing but
The Polls are nothing but propaganda to influence the vote. That Penn and Teller video is good. Forget about the polls the only numbers we should be worrying about are the number of people we can get the Ron Paul liberty message in front of, and the number of delegates we can get.
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I'm hoping the straw poll...
...results are more indicative of primary outcomes... if that's the case, Ron Paul will sweep the nation... his support base is still growing exponentially... I'm convinced the blimp and the December 16 Tea Party will bring Ron Paul's name to millions more. Thanks for the post. You got us all thinking.
Plano TX
Excellent piece on the scientific polls in LRC block
Please read the following blog entry:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/pitkaniemi1.html
That was written when Dr. Paul was polling 1-3%. Now the figures have tripled or even quadrupled.
The polls still exclude a lot of swing votes and misrepresent the reality of primary / caucus goers.
In my opinion Ron Paul will likely sweep the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina due to the amazing grassroots efforts.
Also
Notice how the networks are slipping in here and there "Paul could pull out a third place in IA or NH," and I honestly believe they are saying these things so that they don't look absolutely foolish when he wins. At least now they could say, "we knew he was surging, we knew he would finish well." Just wait, it is coming. We are going to win and win big.
And New Hampshire
They've also covered their own asses in New Hampshire by saying Ron Paul could pull off an upset victory, comparing him to McCain in 2000 and Buchanan.
Yes
The difference between McCain, Buchanan, and Paul is that they won states where they were popular, but Paul is winning a nation not by his own merit, rather with the merit of his ideas. I just looked at that meetup map and I was overwhelmed at the distribution of meetup groups.
6%
I think I've read that only 6% of republicans turn out for the primaries. This would be opposed to about 90% of Paul supporters. So, even if we have smaller numbers of supporters - which I don't think is true - we will have larger numbers of people at the primaries, just like we've had larger numbers at practically all the straw polls. They are going to be shocked, and they can't cancel the caucuses or primaries like they do the straw polls. Their only options now are to fiddle with the results. Other than that, Paul is going to win.
These polls don't mean anything to us!
With new and young voters, Democrats and independents crossing over, and the increase in turnout of Ron Paul supporters these polls mean absolutely nothing! When we hand out flyers, DVDs, any information we should make that very clear! Or include that info.
Our best bet is to win big in Iowa or NH. Blow the polls out of the water, then people will have a reason to doubt.
Mike
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Mike
"Fire Team for Freedom"
visit www.mikeandjake.com
Two more things
Number 3 of the Newsweek poll states that 26% probably will NOT attend and that 23% will NOT attend the Republican Iowa Caucus on January 3.
Here's the link for this poll result: http://www.newsweek.com/media/75/0714_newsweek_poll.pdf
Of those what are likely: 20% definitely WILL attend and 29% probably will attend.
Number 4 of the Newsweek poll states that of those 49% likely to attend, 51% have attended a previous Iowa Caucus. But 49% will be attending their first Iowa Caucus. So about half of all Iowa Caucus goers will be attending their first Iowa Caucus.
Even with all the issues involved with these "scientific" polls, including landline only calls, Ron Paul still has a probable 25% of the vote: most of the 49% of 49% will be for Ron Paul, I would suspect. Oh, and I bet most of those people polled voted for George Bush, which is why they were called in the first place.
The pundits like to gloss over the numbers, but by reading between the lines of their own polls, we can see that the truth is different. This doesn't even take into account that the polls are stilted against Ron Paul. The most important thing to remember that it is one thing to say that you support a candidate, i.e., Fred Thompson et al, but it is another thing to actually show up. Ron Paul is the only candidate, I would suspect, at least on the Republican side, to have 100% turnout on election day.
You missed a big one
The Republican Candidate Preference Table
Total/Likely Rep Causus-Goer
Huckabee has a 14% gain Huckabee 34 to 39
Romney had a 15% loss 20 to 17
Rudy unchanged 9 to 9
Fred 10% gain 9 to 10
John McCain 25% loss 8 to 6
Ron Paul 60% gain 5 to 8
Tom Tacredo 100% gain (from 1 to 2 percent but as we lose all rounding information it could be a gain from 1.4 to 1.6 percent or whatever)
The truth about polls
Here is a good tutorial on polling by Penn & Teller on Frank Luntz (remember this guy from the debate?). This is how "scientific polls" are done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If9EWDB_zK4
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I think there are going to
I think there are going to be a lot of scandals on the various election days with regard to corrupt voting machines, dead people voting, illegal aliens voting, etc.