Let's face it. Straw Polls are not statistically significant.

0 votes

"There is no way to determine with any confidence the accuracy of an estimate of candidate preferences derived from such a straw poll in relation to the target population of persons who are likely to vote in the election." (The Voters Guide to Election Polls http://books.google.com/books?id=Aggmwi1lPpAC&pg=PT69&dq=%22...

Being a Paul supporter, I'm happy that he won the straw poll at CPAC. But we have to face reality. Sorry to rain on people's parades, but straw polls are not statistically significant.

I see comments on this site being upset that media outlets are pointing out that straw polls are not scientific, but that's responsible reporting. Straw polls are truly not scientific or predictive of elections.

People go to straw polls events precisely to enter the poll. This makes the poll unable to predict the voting preference of the larger audience who are not motivated to travel to answer a poll. So what you are polling is just the most motivated political activists who want to get their candidate's name in the news, not the overall population. Naturally, as we know from history, that's going to be Ron Paul supporters. This straw poll you even had to pay money to be able to vote. A reliable poll comes to the person instead of the person going to the poll. This accounts for people that aren't motivated to travel to polls for the sole purpose of getting their candidate's name in the news, which happens to be most people.

Second, this straw poll doesn't tell you Republic or conservative preferences, as the people attending CPAC are not your average Republican voter because again is comprised of the most active activists.

So straw polls have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Yes celebrate the win, but also realize that people discounting the poll as not being predictive or represents the views of a larger population are correct. I urge Paul supporters to keep going to straw polls, but also to stay realistic about it. It makes us look crazy and stupid if we start condemning the media for responsibly pointing out the fact that straw polls are not reliable to the uninformed about statistics.

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Advice to "newbie" from an "oldie!"

I remember the days when I would search the internet news sources for hours looking for any mention of Ron Paul. When mainstream did comment, it was almost always in a negative, demeaning fashion. Did that discourage us? Nope. We hung in there, donated to the cause, joined meet-up groups, brainstormed for ways to get his name out there, did what we could to defend him, and through the thick and thin of it, stuck by him.

Nowadays, he is everywhere. We did that. We are proud of that. The CPAC Straw Poll win IS a positive affirmation. Even if the deck was stacked...he won! I still get excited when he wins - a straw poll, a debate,
a point - no matter.

If you have just recently discovered Ron Paul, I understand your excitement - not only do you want him to win, you want him to win big. You want the mainstream media to portray him as YOU see him, not as how they spin it.

Don't be impatient...small steps. We are winning this war. Spread his ideas by talking to your families, friends, and co-workers. Defend him when you encounter negitive spin. That part is fairly easy as the man has few flaws, his policies make sense, and his actions are honorable.

Most of all, be excited when his ideas gain momentum. This is what it is all about.

jamico

Let's face it:

Jocean and her shilling for the venal and corrupt corporate-controlled media is insignificant --- and contemptible.

How many times are you going to entertain us here with your pro-establishment garbage, Jocean? What is this, maybe your 6th or 7th incarnation on the Daily Paul, after you keep getting banned? You just can't resist trying to peddle your disinformation and disingenuous support for the status-quo here, can you?

I guess it's true: a dog does always return to its vomit.

LOL!

LOL!

Ventura 2012

Really now?

Frankly I see nonsense like this as being nothing more and dishonest and dis-genuine.

You claim that Going to a rock fest and gauging the reaction of the crowd to the band performing is not statistically relevant in determining how well those bands will be received by a larger segment within the same group of rock lovers.

I think you need to rethink your stance or reexamine the definition of logic.

"People go to straw polls to vote"
......People go to concerts to see their favorite bands, if more show up for one band than another it doesn't take much sense to understand they have more fans.

The Abuse of Greatness is when it disjoins remorse from power. - Shakespeare

a grain of salt?

what are you some kind of genius at calling water wet?

STRAW POLL

there's a reason why it's called that, and it's relevance and significance is probably better understood by the regulars here at the Daily Paul, then any other forum.

I rated you down for being obvious, uninsightful, uninteresting and there wasn't even any comedic relief.

CPAC 2010 for Ron..

...was worth about $10 million and it establishes Ron, if not a front-runner, than at least a force to be reckoned with.

Welcome jocean!

13 hour newbie trying to push

13 hour newbie trying to push propaganda...

"Human beings with love and compassion are some of the most beautiful creatures in the universe... Those without are a plague on us all."

It seems...

It seems you are confusing "statistically significant" with "extremely precise realtime measurements".

The whole point of statistics is to identify trends. And the CPAC straw-poll reveals a very significant trend of Ron Paul's growing support and activist networks.

The Liberty movement is incredibly more entrenched in the Republican apparatus and growing rapidly this time around and they are not going away. And that is significant. Very significant.

.
"Wobbles but doesn't fall down" - weebles

Sharp one

aren't ya? I say some people acting like news reporters trying to marginalize somebody at the same time they were building up others for recieveng the same acknowledgement in the past. Not to mention pretending that the other ones in the polls supporters somehow would have had to go to a lot of trouble or may not have even known they could vote. Get over yourself.
Most Ron Paul supporters are smarter than that. Which is what the stupid faux news reporters were saying thinking they could somehow word it so we sound bad. And for the average neo con I'm sure it worked beautifully.
The signifigance of the poll seemed to be news worthy enough for your so called responsible reporters to report on. Oh and even so important they had to downplay the winner. At least this time. Read between the liars.

Thanks newbee I need a lot of help deciding the siginificance

of the straw poll! If it weren`t for the newbees that chime in here after every news event I just would not know how to interperent current events.
Adios troll.

"Since 1789 the only government on Earth that has the power to crush the American people`s liberties across the board is the government of the United States"
Robert Higgs

Well

It may not be "statistically significant" but it damn sure is SIGNIFICANT.

_________________________________

Freedom - Peace - Prosperity

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

_____________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

Delegates Choose the Nominees

Delegates choose the nominees, and delegates are politically active. CPAC is attended by politically active people (though not all in the GOP).

Of course it has no statistical validity re the voting public! But the voting public does not choose the nominees.

The main reason to have a straw poll is to be able to issue a press release, and that's the main reason to win one.

IMissLiberty

Maybe not.

"By any reasonable standard, winning the CPAC straw poll means only slightly less than nothing. Except for that Romney has spent a whole lotta time trying to win it."

--Josh Marshall

Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!

if not that significant

then why did they make such asses out of themselves as to boo him and get all pissy? its an electability booster, romney or palin wanted that win bad. losing to ron paul was an embarrassment and a huge slap in the face to thier supposed front runner status.

Same old thing the media always does.

It's called "advocacy reporting".
There hasn't been any real "news" in the media for at least 40 years.
It's all essentially "current events with their slanted opinion" slathered all over it.

Everybody who hasn't been under a flat rock since then knows that if some big establishment name had won, it would be heralded as their stepping-stone to the Presidency.

When somebody who they don't like, such as Ron Paul, wins, then it's a "statistically insignificant event" for "bragging rights" , etc.

People aren't mad about the

People aren't mad about the fact that they are pointing out that straw polls are meaningless. People are mad about the fact that if Romney won the straw poll, that would never have been mentioned.

If Palin won the straw poll, they would have said that she was expected to win because she is clearly the voice of conservatism today. They would have said this is a launching pad for a presidential run.

Why would Romney spend so much time trying to win the straw poll if he knew the media would be saying it is meaningless the entire time?

Let's face it, nothing suceeds like success

.

Welcome to the forums

but when did it hit you that the CPAC poll was insignificant? Because journalists will vie for the winner when interviews are being planned. That's all that matters in the CPAC poll.

Be that as it may, polls

Be that as it may, polls still have huge influence on the thoughts and behavior of media and voters. Hence, it is important for us to send our message through the polls wherever and whenever we can.

I looked into Ron Paul after

I looked into Ron Paul after he won the MD straw poll.

Ventura 2012

It's a moral victory

And, "journalists", were forced to say his name.
I can't remember the last time I heard Ron Paul's name mentioned on a Top-Of-The-Hour news brief on the radio.
Maybe NEVER before?
It brought quite a smile to my face, to hear that.

"I don't endorse anything they say"
~Ron Paul On the 911 Truth movement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGyhlNY0y1k

It's all about momentum

The Iowa caucuses are a joke; but, between them and the
New Hampshire primary, they pretty much determine who's going'
to be the GOP nominee.

unless they are

...

AND THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE

Check out last years media take

http://newsmax.com/InsideCover/romney-cpac-straw-poll/2009/0...

For the third year in a row, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has won the Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll.

Positioning himself as the leading candidate to win the 2012 Republican nominee for president, Romney got 20 percent of the vote to beat out Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (14 percent)

OMG!!! Just look at the rhetorical (persuasive) differences!

When Romney wins CPAC in 2009: "For the third year in a row, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has won the Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll."

When Paul wins CPAC in 2010: "Rep. Ron Paul won the most support for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination in an unofficial straw poll of conservative activists attending an annual conference.

Note the words "unofficial" and "activists" in Paul's win description!

Further on Paul's report "Paul spoke at the conference along with potential presidential candidates former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota."

They make it seem that Paul isn't a potential presidential candidate! And described Paul voters as "a segment of voters frustrated with Washington"...not mainstream Republican voters.

The report about Romney is about three times as long as the report on Paul. The Romney report has paragraphs of all the so-called great things that Romney has done. Paul gets a half sentence that starts off with a skew: "A libertarian from Texas who has railed against spending and the Federal Reserve..."

The Romney report summaries the CPAC straw poll victory as "In sounding very much like a presidential candidate in 2012..."

For Paul the summary of the straw poll was "Fewer than a quarter of the 10,000 attendees participated in the balloting, an unscientific sampling that only offers bragging rights."

This is the shit that we are up against folks.

BTW: The poll was held yesterday...already, the link on CPAC and NewsMax is nearly buried and will likely disappear early in the week.

.

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Support Rand Paul by donating at http://www.randpaul2010.com/ and certified non-Truthers Peter Schiff at http://schiffforsenate.com/ and John Dennis at http://www.johndennis2010.com/

Thanks for going to the trouble of showing the differences.

Better keep this handy for those who try to argue that the media isn't showing bias against RP.

They are as significant as

They are as significant as the media makes them.

In 2007 and 2008, the media ignored all the Ron Paul wins, and played up the ones he didn't.

It's all about perception.

Hmmmmmmm.... one hour and 51

Hmmmmmmm.... one hour and 51 minutes? That's not enough time here to be statistically significant. You are way out of your league here buddy. Go back to your psyops handbook and see if you can do better... we are bored with you.

www.reverbnation.com/docholladaymusic

Truth is treason in an empire of lies.