Predictions for Texas primary....
Without being a homer. How do you think Medina ends up after Tuesday? In a runoff or outright beating the other 2 or not making the runoff or winning it outright.
I'm nervous but I think she at least is going to be in the runoff. While she is a great speaker, I think the linchpin will be that she will capture a lot of latino and Mexican people to her primary. This is due to her marriage and how she has reached out to them.
The biggest reason I'm nervous is that the polls had not had her rising in the last month. I wonder if you she ever did internal polling and what that said.
Okay...anyway what are your non-homer predictions please.
Also, can you say if you are from Texas just so we can get a feeling of what your friends and family are saying.
Thanks!
what does the high voter turn out mean?
That is the question of the hour.
Medina with a second place
Medina with a second place finish decided by only a few thousand votes.
Excluding Governor - What drives Locals to Polls
Are there any issues in Texas besides Governor that are driving people to the polls.
Would die hard automatic republicans be showing up for some other reason so Perry gets thier automatic vote.
Not from Texas
I am really hoping for a run-off:
Perry 45%
Medina 40%
KBH 15%
Margin of error: +/- 50%
Prima facie evidence that Medina will "win by a nose"
I surmise that the Medina Campaign has been doing internal polling, because Debra has been saying that "we are this close" to winning outright and she holds up two fingers that are separated by a very small difference. She also told one reporter that her prediction was that We Texans would win "by a nose."
Indy Texans are beating the bushes to get out the vote. Dems are suggesting that people vote for her to boot Perry to get a candidate that White has a chance of defeating.
The "Republican" voter turnout for the early voting has in places been three times that of the Democratic turnout. This presumably is in part a result of the new voters coming into the primary who have either never voted or never voted in a primary. Probably not turnout for the other two, since KBH has not caught fire and Perry has a low approval rating.
As someone who lives in Texas, I hate to say that most.........
.....people seem to believe what the news tells them to think. Beck, and the rest of the msm, really sabotaged Medina. It is up to the Tea Party, Independents and Democrats to get Medina into the run-off. Hoping for good news.
Do they use
Diebold machines ?
/Mike
Front Fell Off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcU4t6zRAKg
This
is the latest information I've found on "voting in Texas":
http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&ec=allall&ye...
As stated previously, it appears that about 1/2 of Texas is paper ballots only, another 1/4 mixed between paper and DRE's and the final quarter DRE's only.
When it's all over and done, I'd love to see a side-by-side comparison (Medina race) between counties with paper ballots and those with mixed and/or DRE's only...
Berwick, Columbia County, Pennsylvania
Ron Paul 2012 - The People's Choice
rEVOLution SuperPAC: http://www.revolutionpac.com/
WTP Federal Lawsuit to BAN ALL ELECTRONIC VOTING
http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org/UPDATE/Update2011-07-26...
I have revised my prediction
I have revised my prediction from below to the following:
Perry 38% (285,000)
Medina 33% (247,500)
Hutchison 29% (217,500)
I am projecting 750,000 voters in the Rep Primary for Governor (+-20,000)
Texas Numbers (HISTORICAL)
2008 Presidential Primary
1.4 Mil Total vote cast
600,000 opposed McCain<---Hope HOPE!!
80,000 went to Paul and Keys
2008 General Election
4.4 Mil to McCain
60,000 went to Barr and Baldwin
2007 Constitutional Ammend
1.5 Mil Total Votes
2006 Governors Race
4.4 Mil total vote
1.7 voted for Perry
2006 Gubernatorial race (Primary)
656,000 Total votes cast
100.000 opposed Perry
2005 Constitutional Ammend
2.1 Mil Total Votes
2003 Constitutional Ammend
1.3 Mil Total Votes
2002 Governors Race
4.5 Mil Total votes
2.6 for Perry
2002 Gubernatorial Primary
620,000 un-opposed
2001 Constitutional Ammend
800,000 Total Votes
http://www.rxforliberty.com/10/
Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Medina 52%
Medina 52%
Perry 35%
Hutchinson 13%
edit:
edit:
actually I believe Debra Medina could get 62%
Hutchinson 4%
Perry 34%
my prediction
(btw I am in central Texas)
Perry 43
Debra 37
Kay 30
I have yet to see a single Perry or Kay person at any of the polls I've visited and no signage for either in my whole county.
The Perry campaign printed ZERO signs
KBH support may be just a desert mirage that vanishes into nothingness.
The Perry campaign printed ZERO signs
c
that is
NOT possible!
Freedom is NOT free!
110%
You bet
with those machines
who knows!
Freedom is NOT free!
My guess
is that Medina will beat out KBH and be in the runoff with Perry. I'd like to be wrong and find out that she blows em both out of the water, but with limited advertising I'd say it would be difficult to happen. The great news is if she does knock out KBH and there is a runoff, her media exposure will skyrocket exponentially and then the real race begins! Go get em Debra!
Fact about the polls.
Most of the polls being used to gauge candidate preference are being done only on Republican voters who have voted in previous primaries. The polls do not take into account the slew of new Republicans who registered to vote for Medina, all the Independents, and even the Democrats who support her. As far as I understand, the pool of people being sampled represents the least likely segment of the population that supports her - and Perry STILL can't even get more than 50% among this group, and Medina has probably at least 20% support among this group. This is VERY good news because there are MANY people (new Republicans, Independents, and Democrats) who are voting for her or who have voted for her. Trust me, she has a lot more support than they are admitting. Question is, will these numbers be reflected in the actual count tomorrow night? I hope so.
thanks that's really hopeful.
thanks that's really hopeful.
Sorry...
But I don't trust the honesty and integrity of the vote. "Those who cast the ballots decide nothing. Those who count the ballots decide everything." If I am wrong, which I hope I am, I will consider returning to the US to live in Texas.
Your're right!
It's the counting that worries me. Texan's need lots of "Poll Watchers" see here. http://www.dailypaul.com/node/127521
LIKE SHOOTING FISH IN A BARREL!
Drowning in debt? About to be eaten
alive by sharks? Jump in the lifeboat
right NOW! Free to join!
http://adv.justbeenpaid.com/?r=strikeforce&p=jsstripler5
easy win for Debra
Medina 60%
Perry 30%
KBH 10%
Website:
http://www.libertypoet.com/
Twitter:
http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
"How can we justify to the unemployed and underemployed in the United States the incredible cost of maintaining a global empire?" - Dr. Ron Paul
Let me go out on a very lonely limb here:
12.5%
I hope to be proven wrong, wrong, wrong!
My rationale: Taking the lowest recent result of 16% (Rassmussen) and deducting 3.5 points for "can't win" perception makes this a reasonable projection in the absence of data about who all the new primary voters are actually supporting.
(I'm out of state.)
New Hampshire and Ecuador
i think it is a very real...
and reasonable assumption that all of these "new" voters are NOT voting along establishment, status quo lines
i mean, why would they all come out now to vote when they haven't in the last, at least, 2 election cycles?
i prefer to be a lot more optimistic about this outcome than you are and while i actually believe debra will win the election outright, if she does not she will be very very close and the runoff will be hers to lose
i project she garners 45%+ of the vote with perry at 33% and kbh around 20%
that is, assuming there is no widespread voter fraud
within the margin of error, this could put her over the top or so close that she buries perry
the nwo is dead...long live the constitution!
God Bless Texas!
if these a**holes steal it from us there will be hell to pay!
its 'cos I owe ya, my young friend...
Rockin' the FREE world in Tennessee since 1957!
sobering projection...
i could see 12.5% but not for the same reasons. i would suspect heavy voter fraud if she gets only 12.5%
lots of people are voting early, and while it is true there is no indication of who they are voting for, you have to wonder why someone would make a concerted effort to get out and vote early for either of the established candidates. the only reason this would be the case is if they are truly scared of medina (perhaps they are)
independents have already endorsed medina, and she may even be getting some democrat votes as well. given her slightly lower poll numbers recently, it would be hard for me to predict an outright win, but i think she edges out KBH for a runoff. KBH - 22% DM - 24% RP - 42%
You're right,
I wasn't even considering vote fraud. And I have ARGUED your point in many comments following online articles, that first-time voters are unlikely to be motivated by two long-time business-as-usual candidates.
However, Debra's inability to competitively sway casual voters through ad impressions should be a huge minus for her campaign. (Hopefully this year is different.)
As for support from independents, Medina won support from a group claiming to represent the interests of independent voters but I know from a personal survey that the main characteristic of independents is that they are not just independent of the two main parties, they are independent from each other and thus hard to make other assumptions about.
Any crossover Democratic votes will probably be split between tactical and philosophical motivations.
The tactical motives are that a) more votes for Medina will ensure a costly GOP runoff, thus giving Bill White an advantage, or b) Medina would be preferable as an opponent since she now trails White in general election match-ups.
But many or all of these tactical Democratic votes could be offset by Democrats horrified at the thought of an "anti-government extremist" possibly winning, thus voting for Perry or Hutchison. Some few moderate Democrats might also prefer Hutchison to White or at least prefer Hutchison to any other Republican and attempt to hand her an outright victory with their primary vote so they don't get stuck with Perry or Medina in office.
In short, no dynamic in the vote will operate in a vacuum and just where the ouija puck winds up, especially with this turnout, is difficult to forecast.
New Hampshire and Ecuador
i agree, it is very difficult
i agree, it is very difficult to predict, all outcomes are in play. the polls show her out of the runoff, yet early voter support seems to suggest non-republican support that could range from making the runoff to outright victory. i'm leaning towards half-trusting the polls, but compensating some early voter support, which should be enough to get her into a runoff. but who knows, we just have to wait and see...
bill white wouldn't have an advantage...
in an all girl band!
i thought you might have a clue about what you were talking about until you said bill white could beat debra!
a democratic governor of Texas!!!???
no disrespect here, mclarinj, but you need to wake up and smell the folgers
lets at least keep the speculation within the realm of true possibilities
bill white would not win against ANY republican in Texas!
its 'cos I owe ya, my young friend...
Rockin' the FREE world in Tennessee since 1957!
I'm only referring to latest Rassmussen poll.
They did a head-to-head of each Republican vs. Bill White and Medina scored ten points under Bill White. Was the poll tilted to discount Medina's chances? Very possibly. But without an internal Medina campaign poll it's the best we've got to work with.
BTW, I hope Medina HAS done an internal poll and is just not publicizing it. The only possible evidence I've seen that she has and that the results were good is the addition of bodyguards to her retinue.
New Hampshire and Ecuador