Rand Paul 49%, Jack Conway 41% in Latest Rasmussen Poll

Support for Paul has been at 49% for three straight surveys while Conway has held steady at 41% or 42%.

With the exception of a big bounce immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 42% of the vote.
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This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on July 20, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

While 30% of Kentucky voters believe the $787 billion economic stimulus package passed last year helped the economy, 34% say it hurt. Most (58%) say the government spending in the stimulus did not create new jobs. That’s a more optimistic assessment of the stimulus plan than is offered by voters nationwide.

By a 61% to 16% margin, Kentucky voters believe cutting taxes is a better way than increasing spending to create jobs.

Support for repeal of the health care reform bill is slightly higher in Kentucky than it is nationally. While 61% favor repeal of the law, 31% are opposed.

Sixty percent (60%) of Kentucky voters would favor an Arizona-like immigration law in their state, which is almost identical to results found nationally. Twenty-one percent (21%) in Kentucky are opposed to passing such a law.

Still, 63% in Kentucky favor a welcoming immigration policy that excludes only criminals and those considered threats to U.S. national security. This suggests that voters in Kentucky, like voters nationwide, make a huge distinction between legal and illegal immigration. The policy debate in Washington often ignores that distinction.

Paul is viewed Very Favorably by 22% of Kentucky voters and Very Unfavorably by 19%. Voters feel less strongly about the Republican than they did last month.

Conway, the state’s Attorney General, earns Very Favorable marks from 16% and Very Unfavorable opinions from 13%.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, holds a strong lead among men in the state. Women are evenly divided between the two nominees. Paul holds a three-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

John McCain carried Kentucky over Obama in the November 2008 elections by a 58% to 41% spread. Forty-two percent (42%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 58% disapprove, showing virtually no change from last month. These ratings are slightly lower than the approval ratings Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

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