Latest Survey USA Poll 9/26: Paul and Conway Statistically Tied in KY
Submitted by obscure titles on Sun, 09/26/2010 - 06:31It's time to send in some FRNs ...
https://www.randpaul2010.com/donate/
Mini Money bomb tomorrow ... 9/29.
Here is the latest poll from Survey USA:
Paul 49
Conway 47
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fc6b082e-6...
There is some fishy stuff in here. Their last poll had Paul up 15. Check out the regional breakdown over the last 4 polls.
Note North Central and Western.
These two districts each have interesting breakdowns.
In the North Central you have ...
Lexington - Heavily Democratic
Cincinnati Region - Heavily Republican
And in the Western you have ...
Bowling Green - Democratic
Paducah - Republican
It appears that the samples polled in each mini district within these two regions has been altered in the latest poll.
Only time will tell, but my gut tells me that the LCJ (sponsor of the poll) ordered a shift in the assumptions on the breakdown of these regions.
I have a very connected relative in the Democratic Party in KY and he stands by his prediction that Paul will have a double digit victory.
MAY
Western Louisvil North Ce Eastern
Paul58% 48% 53% 42%
Conway37% 49% 41% 56%
Undecided5% 2% 5% 2%
Total100% 100% 100% 100%
Regional influence22% 26% 35% 18%
JUNE
Region
Western Louisvil North Ce Eastern
51% 50% 54% 47%
43% 45% 41% 48%
6% 5% 5% 4%
100% 100% 100% 100%
23% 27% 34% 16%
AUGUST
Region
Western Louisvil North Ce Eastern
57% 52% 58% 51%
39% 44% 36% 39%
4% 3% 6% 10%
100% 100% 100% 100%
22% 29% 34% 14%
SEPTEMBER (Most Recent)
Region
Western Louisvil North Ce Eastern
48% 47% 49% 53%
45% 49% 49% 40%
7% 3% 2% 8%
100% 100% 100% 100%
24% 25% 35% 16%
Did everything wrong
Rand Paul has done everything wrong. He should have kept to one simple message, like Clinton's "It's the economy, stupid," that he posted where he could see it every day. Instead Paul has been all over the place, allowing his opponent to put him on the defensive over one thing after another. He voluntarily exposed differences with his dad's principles, which at the least hurt his fund-raising.
He got to hit his first drive from the front tee. All he had to do was stay out of the bunkers. (That is the first golf metaphor I have ever written. Please forgive me. It won't happen again.)
Now he has agreed to a long series of "debates" with Conway, a career politician with writers and spinners galore, abetted by the DNC. Conway will come with a plan and lots of carefully prepared responses and sound-bites to recite. The last few weeks will bring attack-ads of course, timed to make rebuttal difficult.
I just checked intrade.com for the odds. Paul is still a big favorite there, but the bid/asked spread has widened to "huge."
I think you underestimate how awesome Rand is in debates.
He has a pretty good way of making his 'crazy ideas' seem reasonable-- and he is pretty skillful at shifting the answer of his question to allude to the economy.
When the media isn't in your back pocket, it's hard to try and stay centered on a message. Rand can't just ignore Conway's mis-characterizations. So far, Rand has deflected a 'Civil Rights Act flap', a rise to BP's defense (in the name of business), personal attacks on his practice, Kentucky-ness, and education, and even a college kidnapping hoax of all things. And YET, he still received 2 major endorsements last week, and is still polling AHEAD of Conway.
That and he won that high school mock election. :)
Paul beat Grayson because it was pretty obvious in the debates that he was a better fit for Kentucky. It's how he soared to a 25 point win. These debates will only serve to remind Kentucky voters of just why they need a candidate like Rand Paul to speak out, and restore sanity to this country's financial state.
Alibi for voting machines anyone???
The only place I saw support for Conway was Lexington and Louisville. If he wins... I will never believe it.
Rural Kentucky aint liberal.
Conway's advantages
are that he's much better looking than Paul, has deeper Kentucky roots, and has financial connections. He's apparently done a good job of commandeering the center for the general election.
Rand could well lose this race.
New Hampshire and Ecuador.
His refusal to give his position on the issues
is also a drawback.
Possible,
but unlikely.
I've said it once, and I'll say it again, Conway is just too liberal for Kentucky (and not in the good ways). Heck, GRAYSON was too liberal for Kentucky!
Five most "competitive" Senate races
~
hey, Kentucky must be on there.
NOT.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42784.html
THE ESTABLISHMENT CAN NOT AFFORD EVEN ONE MAN LIKE
RAND PAUL TO SCREW UP THEIR PLANS FOR WORLD GOVERNMENT.
IF THEY CAN'T RIG THE ELECTION THEY WILL GET RID OF HIM BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY..HISTORY SHOWS THAT THESE PLUTOCRATS HAVE ELIMINATED ANY OBSTACLES TO THEIR PLANS FOR WORLD GOVERNMENT.
"WE SHALL HAVE WORLD GOVERNMENT WEATHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT." ~ JAMES WARBURG, SPEAKING BEFORE CONGRESS IN 1950
RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT IN 2012
Must be the "Kristal/Palin Effect" :-)
x
"Statistically Tied".....does that mean.
They are going to fix the election?
I wonder.
There is something wrong about these so called 'scientific' polls, period.
I remember when Ron Paul really got momentum towards the end of 2007 (the 2 moneybombs), all of a sudden Mike Huckabee was way up in 'the polls'.
Not Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee. I coulnd't believe it then, and I still won't believe it now.
Giuliani was 'frontrunner' in the beginning of the election cycle, untill they discovered he really had no real support whatsoever, and only then they dropped him.
I may not know the truth, but I do know when I am being lied to.
Why you should doubt the numbers
~
also mentioned in a comment below, but for emphasis:
New polls show Fiorina and Paul fading — thanks to screwy samples
Hotair | Sept 26 2010
Meanwhile in Kentucky, deja vu: Once again we’ve got a Republican fading, and once again it’s thanks in part to a sample that skews more heavily towards Democrats than the last one did. Rand Paul’s 15-point lead down to … two?
Unmentioned in the Herald-Journal’s story: The Survey USA poll that showed Paul up by 15 had a D/I/R sample of 47/10/42, which is in line with the 2008 Kentucky presidential exit poll sample of 47/15/38. Like I said up top, it stands to reason that Republican turnout will be better this year than it was two years ago. So what’s the sample in this new poll showing the race now within the margin of error? Why, it’s … 51/12/38. Once again, to believe Paul is ahead by only two, you have to believe that Democrats in Kentucky are going to turn out for Jack Conway in greater proportions than they did for Barack Obama. Ain’t happening, although it probably is true that the race has tightened since the poll that showed Paul up 15. Based on the spread here, figure it’s probably more in the neighborhood of eight points. Not a prohibitive lead, but comfortable.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/26/new-polls-show-fiorina...
^ Now this I can believe...
You think they aren't going to go after the guy who went after Obama??? The media, the government, you name it, he has a target on his back...
important find, thanks
important find, thanks
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
thanks ...
the devil is in the details.
Could it be because Rand is nonradical Tea Party Lite?
I think so...
As Rand comes off as reasonable on the issues, who says we must read the bills, must balance the budget, must reduce our dependence on government ....really, who is inspired and impassioned with such watered bread goals?
Certainly not this R3VOLutionary...
Meanwhile the good doctor Ron Paul keeps calling for ABOLISHING the IRS, JUST LEAVING AFGHANISTAN & IRAQ, and ABOLISHING the Federal Reserve. My interest and support remains with the Good Doctor, his son makes me yawn.
In peace and liberty,
Treg
Invest in Liberty, one Apartment deal at a time with me. Get a check each month as a passive investor, just ask me how.
You may yawn, but we will redouble our support for RAND
AND Ron Paul. Because Rand is a FAR BETTER liberty candidate than Jack C.
The very fact that the elites are trying so hard to discredit Rand and RIG the election shows that HE IS WORTHY of our continued redoubled support.
(Only when we see any sign of him kissing the rings of AIPAC, we will withdraw our support. Until then, he is still standing high on his own on his liberty platform, meeting and conversing with all who approach him.)
You're made of stronger stuff
You're made of stronger stuff than am I. I don't yawn; I puke.
DON'T SAY THAT !!!!!!!
Remember the jinx effect....not superstitious just being careful !!!
Just one last kick in the nuts, then a final deathblow
Like Ron always says in his
Like Ron always says in his elections. "Run like your 20 points behind."
Comparisons
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fc6b082e-6...
The Survey USA poll with Paul up by 15%, is kind of a hard survey to compare with this current one because they used different numbers of dems and repubs.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=621b7962-d...
This week's poll is easier to compare against the one taken in July.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb84780b-9...
Looks like 2% of Paul voters switched to Conway, and 2(?)% of unlikely voters have gone to Conway as well. (Oversimplifying.)
That's strange... with all of the TV ads out there from the GOP, you'd think Rand's numbers would be higher...
This all boils down to party identity of the respondents. In my opinion, Rand is most likely leading Conway by around 10 points. I don't think Democrats are gonna 'bring out the vote' and the Tea Parties are energizing conservatives and attracting Independents. I think Survey USA had more accurate results when they took these factors into account with the 15-point lead survey. (Seriously, only 36% of the respondents were Republicans??? In Kentucky??? I know they have more registered Democrats... but let's get real, here...)
What I found even more perplexing was the survey's breakdown of ideology:
_______Conservative__|__Moderate___|___Liberal___|___(Total?)
7/30/10______44%__________35%_________14%___=___93%
9/02/10______46%__________36%_________12%___=___94%
9/24/10______44%__________36%_________17%___=___97%
Notice how they don't equal 100%...? I wonder if libertarians classify themselves as conservatives?
Thanks for that professional analysis.
here is the breakdown in 2008 and 2006 ...
2008
Dem- 57.9%
Rep- 37%
Ind- 5.2%
2006
Dem- 59.6%
Rep- 36.5%
Ind- 4%
I seriously think that this has to do with assumptions that will never turn up by looking at the figures.
Check out the North Central trending until the last poll.
If you know KY and you know how Democratic Lexington is and you know how Republican the Cincinnati region is, this poll caught too many Republicans from Lexington and not enough Democrats from the Cincinnati region.
It is interesting that the homogenious regions, Louisville and Eastern, had little change, and the two regions that really have two separate mini regions within, had huge shifts.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Interesting...
I hadn't thought to think about it in terms of region demographics (I just now read your OP). Seems like Survey USA was pressured into cherry picking their sampling this time around...
There is no way this race is a 'dead heat'.
This analysis from Hot Air is also pretty interesting:
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/26/new-polls-show-fiorina...
(scroll down to the part about the KY race)
Also very interesting ...
I wonder if the use by hotair of exit polling instead of actual turnout is relative.
It makes you realize that even exit polls are not that accurate when it comes to the internals.
Hey, I wonder if Trey had anything to do with this. Afterall he and Jack are buds and have adjacent offices and as Secretary of State, I am sure he could work some magic on the voter rolls.
Of course these are all questions that will never be answered, but I can't get past the last polling data for the primary that had Grayson closing and within 7 points and Paul ended up winning by 25.
That North Central change is just completely unbelievable.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Looks like the fix is in.
Looks like the fix is in.
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."
Thomas Jefferson
bump for afternoon crowd.
I am not trying to explain away these polls.
They may be accurate using the assumptions that have worked in the past.
I am just extremely confident that this race is a double digit lead at this point of likely voters.
The problem is that, on this go around, a certain segmant of "likely voters" are completely stealth.
They have never voted, or haven't voted in the past.
And ...
Do not discount the YAL's effort in getting out the youth vote.
Turnout is everything.
Turnout is everything.
Turnout is everything.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994