Ron Paul Meetup Group Growth
Submitted by Michael Nystrom on Thu, 08/23/2007 - 09:57in
Dennis writes:
Hi, I'm an enthusiastic Ron Paul supporter that started a spreadsheet on
the total number of members on the webpage:
The continued steady growth is awesome. I know it warms my heart to see people taking personal responsibility action and joining such an historical moment in America's history.
Interesting that it's linear
Hmmmm - v-e-r-y interesting, but far from dumb. I'm actually surprised that it's so linear. I would have thought it would be exponential. But, ok, I'll settle for linear. Keep it growing, patriots.
Now how about extrapolating this out to January - how many will we have before the primaries?
If you are not OUTRAGED, you're not paying attention!
Linear?
Guess I should first say I'm the guy that sent the graph in. And do appreciate all discussion be it critical, suggestive, or just a Go Ron Paul!
Well when analyzing data and information I'm critical as well. Here is my take at this time. We have 24 data points. Considering the campaign is in its early stages a few weeks are not much to go on. I don't know how to get past history from the page and honestly haven't tried, and if anyone can gather it or direct me to it I'll put it to work. So far I just try to grab the number toward the end of the day, but if I know it won't be possible later take it when I can because after I go to sleep it resets. That accounts for some inconsistancy but should be random enough over time to not matter. With 24 data points that looked linear and I just included the LINE for very short term guesses as to growth not long term predictions.
I will try to keep it going because I think it's good data to see how things are going. I would be careful NOT to judge the success of the campaign by this graph though. At some point, fair size groups may not join a meetup but get their information from one who is a member. And that group may grow to support the cause to spread the word locally but they may not all if any join a meetup group but remain quite involved. At my suggestion 4 people will join me in attendance to the Ron Paul BBQ this weekend but I have no idea if they would ever join a meetup group. But they all will be supporters I think.
But, that said I did an exponential fit to today's data and it isn't bad with R^2=.9917. And that can be found here:
http://img92.imageshack.us/my.php?image=meetupwithexpreghh6.png
I'm going to spend much more time spreading the message than analyzing these numbers but will try to keep up the data base as time allows. But I thought the several weeks data at this point of the campaign showed a positive message :)
Carry on Patriots, it's about America, not numbers. If we spread the idea, the numbers will take care of themselves. It's not about any of us but is about all of us.
..
It is exponential, the hype is gone but we're still growing at the same level. In 2 months or so you will see the difference.
10 days ago the biggest meetup group (Austin) had 656 members, now 707.
+73 new groups and 52 new cities since then.
"The freedom message brings people together, it doesn’t divide."
Ron
79,000 by January
1. 24,000 members as of 7/17.
2. 11,000 members added between 7/17 and 8/16.
3. 5 months from 8/16 to Jan. 14, 2008, the date of the Iowa Caucus.
Assuming that the linear progression holds, the number of members by Jan. 14, 2008 should be at least 24,000 + (11,000 x 5) = 79,000.
These are dedicated people.
I was in Iowa and saw the oceans of buses. Those folks came for a free meal and something to do for the evening. None stayed around to see how their guy finished.
These people aren't bought and paid for for a weekend. They are couragous, allive, and hard working, and it doesn't cost the campaign but enhances it.
I don't know where it came from but while working in Iowa someone comes up to me with a box of T-shirts and says "would you like a free Ron Paul T shirt?"
I replied, I would rather pay for it. But I did take it.
I have pictures of people exiting the buses and going through the line of recieving all the 'free' stuff. Then on to the Free BBQ, and the Free huge stage band. It was pathetic. But it is where America is. Most of these people were old and certainly have grandkids if not great grandkids. They had no clue that they are giving them slavery and debt, and the loss of something so precious.
It seems that a great number of them didn't even vote. They just took the handout. America as it is today, ripe for the picking.
I just hope the right ideas Pick IT!
At Some Point Ron Paul's growth will hit a Critical Mass!
Anybody remember when Microsoft Windows went from What is Windows?
To where they are now.
Well, how about Who is Ron Paul? (a constitutional genius!!!)
Microsoft grew so big so fast that they reached critical mass with the general public and now look at them. Of course I'm a Linux fan waiting on their critical mass.Linux reminds me alot of the Ron Paul Movement. The only difference is we have to reach critical mass twice. Once to get the nomination and then to beat the Clinton regime. Our time is NOW!
Critical Mass is when Public acceptance starts to peak and everyone jumps on board for RON PAUL! ...YEA BABY!
GO RON PAUL!!!
Wow......the growth!
Can't you just imagine Rudy, Mitt and the rest of the beltway gang gnashing their teeth trying to figure out this Ron Paul thing. I'll bet they never figured on this taking hold. Their phone lines must be buzzing to their handlers, trying figure out how to counter the groundswell of Americans (and notice the International support for Ron) who simply prefer decency and honesty and adherence to the Constitution (for a change!) It's funny how the TV talking heads try to define "conservatism vs. liberalism" Good vs. Bad. Well, I say a true conservative follows the original instruction book for the operation of our Country - that being the Constitution. Any deviation from such is an exploit in "liberalism". Read to top tagline on this webpage again, and again. A dishonest money system is at the very heart of America's economic and social problems. All Ron Paul supporters need to brush up on the Constitution. You'll really start to see how far off course we've allowed our "leaders" to take us.
alan laney
The Republican Party.
I think it was hijacked a long time ago. We can only take it back if we stand as a nation.
Apathy lost it, and people are waking up. Information and communication promote education and truth. The light is a beautiful thing, but only to those that savor it.