11 votes

Facebook like counts - we have a lot of work to do

Will be interesting to see how this changes as the campaigns move along.

Lady Gaga: 32,848,871 (just for perspective)

Barack Obama: 19,543,556 (more perspective)
...
Sarah Palin: 2,912,443
...
Mitt Romney: 859,916
...
Mike Huckabee: 574,234
Ron Paul: 330,264
Michele Bachmann: 236,298
New Gingrich: 122,825
Gary Johnson: 111,739
Tim Pawlenty: 85,183
-----------------------------------------
Paul/Romney/Obama daily numbers:
--------- PAUL-------------- RomneyCare-------- Obama
----
2011
----
04/25...330,264 ------------- 859,916 .......... 19,543,556
04/26...332,154(+1890) ------ 862,315 (+2399)
04/27...334,311(+2157) ------ 863,914 (+1599)
04/28...336,007(+1696) ------ 865,312 (+1398)
04/29...337,306(+1301) ------ 866,254 (+942) ... 19,662,925
04/30
05/01
05/02...340,027(+2721) ------ 869,748 (+3494) ... 19,758,603
05/03...341,349(+1322) ------ 871,464 (+1716) ... 19,830,301
05/04...342,666(+1317) ------ 872,798 (+1334) ... 19,899,972
05/05
05/06...346,810(+3944) ------ 874,850 (+2052) ... 20,035,361
...
05/09...348,889[+2079) ------ 878,638 (+3786) ... 20,182,067
...
05/16...356,889[+8000] ------ 900,016 (+21,378).. 20,425,926
..
05/18...359046 [+2157] ------ 903,787 [+3771] ... 20,483,537
05/31...378405 [+19359] ----- 933,782 [+29904] .. 21,219,613
06/07...385392 [+6987] ------ 949,619 [+15837] .. 21,451,623
06/10...387770 [+2370] ------ 952,972 [+3353] ... 21,529,114
06/14...392453 [+4683] ------ 962,300 [+9328] ... 21,631,678
06/24...402210 [+9757] ----- 1015222 [+52922] ... 21,782,822
06/30...407505 [+5295] ----- 1021458 [+6236] ... 21,856,595
07/12...415762 [+8200] ----- 1035930 [+14000] ... 22,007,570
10/05...532247 [+116485] --- 1126162 [+90232] ... 23,394,024
11/01...569551 [+37304] ---- 1158261 [+32099] ... 23,876,500
11/17...588856 [+19305] ---- 1183192 [+24931] ... 24,084,228
12/02...606924 [+18068] ---- 1203451 [+20259] ... 24,228,282
12/23...655763 [+48839] ---- 1232917 [+29466] ... 24,300,602
12/29...667346 [+11583] ---- 1243524 [+10607] ... 24,319,307
12/30...670342 [+2996] ---- 1252220 [+8696] ... 24,322,614
----
2012
----
01/11...718641 [+48299] ---- 1312465 [+60245] ... 24,435,897
04/22...941799 [+223158] --- 1629035 [+316570] .. 26,094,831
05/01...948192 [+6393] ----- 1661328 [+32293] ... 26,185,198
05/21...966370 [+18178] -----1753094 [+91766] ... 26,634,195
06/19..1000000 [+33630] -----1961314 [+208220] .. 27,055,648
07/18..1028820 [+38820] -----2483947 [+522633] .. 27,374,710
11/12..1107205 -------------12033860 ............ 33,281,598

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facebook likes are the same

as the government's numbers on unemployment or the economy...you don't really take them seriously do you?

An alternative to the MSM Machine http://freedombroadcastingnetwork.com/
Ron Paul friendly news: http://www.newsetal.com/

I take them seriously for what they are

I take them seriously for what they are - an indication of how many Facebook users made the small effort it takes to search for or click on a link to a given page and "like" it.

Paul's relatively high popularity as measured by FB "likes", compared to all candidates in the last four years except for Obama, Romney and Palin makes sense.

Given the presumption of Romney's nomination his "like" numbers climbing as much as they did in the last 30 days makes sense too.

Is someone creating fake FB accounts to pump up a "like" count of their favorite candidate? Maybe, but Paul's count is likely to benefit from such inflation at least as much as anyone else.

Facebook has almost 1 billion users - so Paul's 1 million likes amount to .1%. So, worldwide, one out of 1,000 people "likes" Ron Paul.

We don't know how many of his likes are from U.S. people, but even if it's all of them, that's 1 million out of 155 million U.S. user, or 1 out of 155... still less than 1%.

If nothing else, these results suggest that Ron Paul's inability to win a popular election in any state is best explained simply by his candidacy not garnering enough support with the people (which is partially if not mostly explained by biased coverage and lack of coverage by the mainstream press). It's not because of voter fraud or anything like that.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Worst month ever in FB likes

We picked up only 28,820 in the last month - less than one thousand per day.

In the mean time, Romney picked up over half a million likes during the same period, more than Obama's 325,000.

Despite all our efforts, we libertarians remain a small minority of our society.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

1,000,000!!!!

In the last month...

  • We went from 966370 to 1,000,000, picking up 33,600, but...
  • ...Romney picked up over 200,000, putting him about 38k from 2,000,000 and ...
  • ...Obama picked up over 300,000
  • We hit 1,000,000 today!
  • For each person who likes Ron Paul, there are two Romney likes, and 27 Obama likes.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Still not growing fast enough

05/01...948192 [+6393] ----- 1661328 [+32293] ... 26,185,198
05/21...966370 [+18178] -----1753094 [+91766] ... 26,634,195

In the last 3 weeks we picked up 18k, but Romney got 92k, and Obama picked up about 450k.

That's right, just in the last 3 weeks Obama acquired half as many likes as Paul has obtained in total.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Our numbers keep growing, but not nearly fast enough.

In the last week we picked up about 6k, but Romney got 32k, and Obama almost 100k.

Our numbers keep growing, but not nearly fast enough.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Exactly one year ago today

Exactly one year ago today, on 4/25/2011, I created this thread, focusing on the Facebook like counts of three candidates: Obama, Romney and of course Ron Paul. I mentioned others, but the main section of the OP was set up to be all about those three, because I strongly suspected in the end that's all that would matter.

And here we are a year later... with news of Newt suspending his campaign (next Tuesday), that leaves exactly those three candidates.

Now in the remaining states the only "not Romney" choice is Ron Paul. Will this be enough for wins in some of them?


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Facebook is a great place to recruit delegates

I have friends on Facebook who never heard or at least hardly ever noticed Ron Paul, until my posts. Now they're committed delegates.

Anyone on Daily Paul who has not been using Facebook to evangelize Ron Paul, has missed a great opportunity. Depending on what state you're in, it might not be too late. Get on it!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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The 9-15 year old age

The 9-15 year old age demographic that dominates Facebook has little influence on the delegate process.

Just look at the numbers above...they're cartoonish.

Tweety Bird (Twitter) and Facebook (Sylvester) are beyond hype, their numbers are all manufactured government cheese. It's like "Dancing With The Internet," instead of the "stars." American Internet Idol...it's all the same old garbage.

Why even bother joining Twitter of Facebook after finding out that they literally keep track of you, and watch your every move like a rat in a cage, and then sell your own crap, and keep a personal profile on you based upon everything you post?

"Hello world, look at me...I baked a freaking cake, I'm special."

No...you're not special, you're a TOOL.

Never be afraid to ask simple questions.

It is that kind of idiotic,

It is that kind of idiotic, superior attitude that makes you fless effective at converting others.

No..you are not superior in ANY way over people who use Facebook. People of ALL ages...whtih FAR better lives in every aspect of life...use Facebook. No one is using Facebook because it makes they feel special. But you patehtically are talking about not having an account because you think it makes you seem special.

Why even bother joining

Why even bother joining Twitter of Facebook after finding out that they literally keep track of you, and watch your every move like a rat in a cage, and then sell your own crap, and keep a personal profile on you based upon everything you post?

If you or anyone else thinks that anyone at Facebook cares about your personal mundane life, you're delusional.

Sure, they want to know if you're planning a vacation to New York City - so they can sells ads to NYC hotels targeted at you. Each hotel isn't given your name or any personal information about you. They just know that some number of people posted "I'm going to New York", and all of them got to see their ad (I notice FB ads even less than I notice DP ads).

And why give them the impression that there are fewer Ron Paul supporters than there actually are?

Finally, you can set up a Facebook account anonymously, though then it's hard to connect to friends. Which might not matter if you don't have any.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Wow you have no idea what you are talking about

It goes way beyond what Minarchist says below.

I have added hundreds (soon to be thousands) of Ron Paul patriots. It is a massive network unparalleled by anything else.

Many of them SINGLE-HANDEDLY OUTPACE DRUDGE WITH NEWS AGGREGATION. Facebook news about Ron Paul travels much faster than the DailyPaul.

I hope the government and Facebook keeps track of us. Maybe they will learn something.

Open up a Facebook account and just don't put anything personal. You can start with me. Add Mark Lundgren.

You're wrong

Sorry, but you are quite apparently someone who does not use Facebook.

I have hundreds of friends on Facebook, the vast majority of whom are people I know in person going back as far as Kindergarten and before to people I work with today (I'm in my early 50s).

Siblings, cousins, classmates, coworkers, bosses, CEOs, people with similar interests, they're all on there. I don't know anyone below the age of 10 on FB (but plenty of people with kids that age), a couple below 15, but tons in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s. Even a few in their 70s and a couple of parents of friends who are in the 80s.

These people talk about their personal lives, sure, but many also share news articles and talk philosophy, religion and politics.

Dismissing millions of voters is stupid. Luckily Ron Paul has a good presence on Facebook, not only with his official page, but dozens of "fan" groups.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

4/22/2012 Facebook like count update

First the good news.

  • 1,000,000 likes are within reach... less than 60,000 to go!
  • In the last 3 months, we picked up over 223,000 likes
  • Newt is at 295,768. Almost 700,000 behind Ron Paul
  • Newt was at 227,418 3 months ago - so he picked up only 68,350 in the same period.

Now for the bad news.

  • Palin, who is not even running, went from 2.2M last April to 3.3M (3,318,786) today - picking up 1.1M in the same year we picked up about 600k.
  • Lady Gaga went from 32M to 50,182,053 in the same year/
  • In the same 3 month period we picked up 223k likes, Mittens picked up about 316k. That's almost 100,000 more than us.
  • Mitt's total is now at 1.6 million, over 600k more than we have. A year ago he was 500k ahead of us, so he hasn't made up much ground, but we haven't been catching up.
  • Obama, on the other hand, picked up 1.6M in just the last 3 months, taking him to 26 million.

For the record, Rand Paul is at 173,268 likes today.

I think we'll break 1,000,000 in less than a month, but how we can catch up with Romney, much less Obama, is difficult to see, especially since our numbers have been increasing steadily but modestly over the last year.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

updated

http://www.insidefacebook.com/2012/03/30/romney-leads-gingri...

You know what to do.

Chase the likes with awesome videos of the crowds.

We all know Romney is famous for providing his speeches with 2 rows of bleachers behind him to make it look like hes got a really packed house on TV. Sample Here: http://michiganformitt.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/romney-mi...

Why isn't anyone else picking up on this?

01/11/12 Facebook like count update

Since 12/30, Paul has accumulated 48k likes, and so is now up to 718,641, but Romney picked up 60k and Obama over 100k during the same period.

Others:

Gingrich: 227,418
Santorum: 74,711
Huntsman: 37,496
Perry: 188,582

Also:
Bachmann: 459,723
Palin: 3,253,299


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Romney

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he paid for his "likes". It's not hard to fake them.

12/30/11 update

Wow, in 24 hours Paul picked up 3,000, while Mitt got almost 9,000! What's going on?

12/29...667346 [+11583] ---- 1243524 [+10607] ... 24,319,307
12/30...670342 [+2996] ---- 1252220 [+8696] ... 24,322,614


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

12/29 update

12/23...655763 [+48839] ---- 1232917 [+29466] ... 24,300,602
12/29...667346 [+11583] ---- 1243524 [+10607] ... 24,319,307

In the last 6 days Paul picked up 11,583 likes, but Romney picked up 10,607. It's going in the right direction, but way too slowly.

During the same period Obama picked up even more, as always, almost 19,000, but that's not as many more as he has picked up in the past.

Santorum is at 39,553, Huntsman: 30,419, Bachmann: 460,424,
Perry: 179,667


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

12/23/11 update

If you compare the size of the increases between Paul and Romney the entire year, they're mostly pretty close. Sometimes Paul gets more likes, sometimes Romney gets more likes, but nobody ever gets twice as many as the other guy.

Back in April when I started this, Paul had 330,264 while Romney had 859,916, a difference of 529,652. Or, Paul's number was about 62% of Romney's number.

Today, they're at 655,763 and 1,232,917, so Paul is now behind by 577,154, and has only 53% of the likes that Romney has.

But in the last two weeks Paul picked up about 18,000 more likes than did Romney. So maybe, just maybe, we've reached the peak in the difference, Romney is approaching his ceiling, and Paul will now continue to catch up? We'll see!

As to the others...

Cain's numbers continue to rise too. He's now at 389,378, up from 382,142 on 12/02, and from 316,110 on 11/1.

Gingrich jumped by 37k (compared to Paul's 48k) in the last 2 weeks, from 173,323 on 12/02 to 220,533 today.

Huntsman picked up about 6k, from 23,609 on 12/02 to 29,951 today. No threat there, apparently!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

12/02/11 update

Well, the last 2 weeks were a bit better for Romney than for Ron Paul. Paul picked up 18k likes, while Mitt's count grew by 20.2k. In the mean time, Obama gained about 140k likes, and so his huge lead continues to grow.

Others:

Cain is now at 398,263, up from 382,142, so he picked up about 16k in the same time period.

Gingrich went from 173,323 to 199,693, a jump of 29k - somewhat confirming what the polls are saying.

Huntsman went from 23,609 to 26,172, not even 3k.

Huntsman is still hanging in there, and he might be the one many of those who moved from Bachman to Perry to Cain to Gingrich who gains when Newt implodes.

But if we can get more acceptance of a non-interventionist foreign policy, we can make that be Paul.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

11/17/11 update

In the last 2 weeks or so, Paul picked up 19k likes, but Romney picked up almost 25k. In the mean time, Obama picked up another 200k.

Cain is now at 382,142, up from 316,110 on 11/1, so he picked up 65k or so in the same time period.

Last time I checked on Gingrich, he was at 140,005, on 6/10. Now he's at 173,323.

Huntsman was at 9,237 in July; now he's at 23,609. Not much of a base there!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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October update

NOTE: I'm keeping this record because I believe-hope it will very useful and interesting when Ron Paul's popularity really begins to rise, which should be reflected in the Facebook like counts, hopefully after a great performance at one of the November debates.

During October Ron Paul again picked up a few more Facebook likes than Mitt Romney. Paul went from 532,247 to 569,551 - an increase of 37,304... Romney picked up 5,000 less, but that still takes him up to 1,158,261. So Ron Paul still has about half as many "likes" as Romney.

Considering we started at 330k vs 860k back at the end of April, that's definitely good steady progress in the right direction. Is it enough to win the nomination? No way, not yet. Something has to happen to kick up Ron Paul's popularity by a big jump. We can't afford to gain support at this slow but steady pace.

And in the mean time, Obama picked up 480k in one month, almost as many as Ron Paul has total.

Also, Cain went from 230,972 on Oct 5 to 316,110 today, an increase of 85,138 in a month.

But also notice that Rick Perry only picked up about 3,000 in that same time period, from 166,331 to 169,360.

My guess is that Facebook likes are a better measure than telephone polls of relative numbers in terms of strong supporters. I mean, telephone polls of random people are going to get a lot of people who will cough up someone's name (the flavor of the week), but aren't necessarily big supporters of that person, while actually going out of your way to "like" someone on Facebook is an overt action.

This cuts both ways for us, of course. On the good side Ron Paul remains in second place for the GOP nomination (ignoring Palin) and he trounced Perry in terms of new strong supporters in the last month, by a factor of 12, and did a bit better than Romney in that measure.

But on the bad side Cain grew by more than twice as many as Paul during the same period, and, again, Obama is absolutely killing all the Republicans.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Some good news

In the last three months Ron Paul has picked up more Facebook likes than Romney. Not a lot more, but more. Romney picked up about 90k while Paul got 116k.

That's the good news. The bad news is Obama picked up another 1.3 million. So the number Obama gained in the last three months alone is twice the total that Ron Paul has.

How are we going to pick up another 500,000 people who will like Ron Paul on Facebook?

By the way, Rick Perry is at 166,331 and Cain is at 230,972.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Something big has to happen.

In the last 2 weeks, RP picked up about 8000, Romney about 14,000, and Obama... another 140,000.

Of the others Palin and Bachmann are picking up likes at a faster rate than Ron Paul. Palin remains way ahead of even Romney, while Bachmann is now ahead of Ron Paul by almost 2,000. She picked up almost 30,000 in the last two weeks.

Others:
Herman Cain: 144,415->148,452
Bachmann: 388,346 -> 417,459
Huntsman: 8653 -> 9,237
Palin: 3,168,502 -> 3,186,555


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

You have to remember though,

there are a lot of people who aren't Mitt Romney supporters who have "liked" his page so that they can monitor things from the "inside"....They do this so they can post on the wall, get the event info, etc...So a big jump in those number could very well be Ron Paul supporters on the lookout.

ln

^Exactly nuzlum

You have to 'like' a page before you can comment on it. Take a peek at Obama's facebook page. For every post put up, there's a loooooong ribbon of hate-filled vitriol! I liked Mitt Romney's page only for the purpose of converting Romulans.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign: that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. ~J. Swift

Even then...

Even if you assume 10% of RP supporters also "like" Romney, which I think is more than generous, that 40k barely dents the 600k difference between RP and MR.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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6/30 update

06/24...402210 [+9757] ----- 1015222 [+52922] ... 21,782,822
06/30...407505 [+5295] ----- 1021458 [+6236] ... 21,856,595

In the last 6 days, RP picked up about 5000, Romney about 6000, and Obama... another 74,000.

Others:
Herman Cain: 144,415
Bachmann: 388,346
Huntsman: 8653
Palin: 3,168,502


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

good luck I guess..

I see it more of an "idol" count. I don't believe in idols, and I certainly don't trust facebook or feel the need to put everything about me out there. Truly I feel sorry for people that do spend so much time on facebook and take time to let people know every time you have a bowel movement.