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Zogby Poll says expect upside surprise for Ron Paul

Submitted by GiveMeLibertyOr... on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 15:29
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Mike Adams at newstarget.com does a brilliant job explaining why Ron Paul MUST win or we're finished (I suggest all to sign up to the newsletter and tell all of your family and friends about that site too)

Here is the link:
http://www.newstarget.com/022342.html

And now here is John Zogby from the famous Zogby poll who says Ron Paul will surprise to the upside --- remember to keep up the intensity and raise the intensity of support for Ron Paul to make this happen! :)

Be sure to scroll all the way to the bottom of the page to see it --- just keep scrolling until you see the part about Ron Paul.

Here is that link: http://prisonplanet.com/articles/december2007/221207_b_zogby...

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Let's add this to our MLK Day List of grievances!

Submitted by FireTeamforFreedom on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 20:35.

Us Govt. getting the reader list from Amazon.com. All we need is book burning and the NeoCons will be right on track to Nazis!

Mike
Who is Ron Paul? I am Ron Paul! We are Ron Paul!
"Fire Team for Freedom" on RonPaulRadio.com
Mondays and Wednesdays 10pm EST
or visit www.mikeandjake.com

—

Mike
"Fire Team for Freedom"
visit www.mikeandjake.com

Hi, John Doe...

Submitted by denpratt on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 16:14.

Let's not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

This "polling" that everyone here seems to think is 'dishonest', is, honestly, really really hard stuff. I managed market researchers trying to get "honest" assessments of interest in new products, and it was hard.

So even if he was being an honest broker, his survey results would be badly skewed because of the many limitations he faces.

So, he knows this. The reporters don't. They take the numbers and say that such and such a candidate has 10% of the vote +/-5%. They have no clue what they are saying.

But Zogby has a better idea of where the likely bias lies. He thus tells us, "Here's what I think will happen, despite the numbers." It's not that he has a different set of numbers, or that he intentionally skewed the numbers, it's just that what he is trying to do is hard and inaccurate.

That's why we vote.


reLOVEution, Dennis
"The best way to insure implicit obedience is to commence tyranny in nursery." - Disraeli

—

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

what is so difficult?

Submitted by John_Doe on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 16:45.

I don't want to be Debbie Downer but what is so difficult about doing a poll? Even the Idiot Frank Luntz can do a poll.

Here's a very simple poll that I'd like to see:

Call a random land line and ask:

"Do you plan on voting in the upcoming presidential primary?" If they answer yes, ask "Who will you vote for? If undecided, please state undecided."

Note that it doesn't filter phone numbers. It doesn't give the participants a list of people to choose from (if they don't know the name of their candidate, what are the chances they'll really make it out to vote?) and they are also given the option of undecided ("reputable" polling firms really dislike undecided voters because now they have to make more calls to get the proper number of people polled).

My simple poll will be a lot more accurate than any of the crap polls that filter likely voters and nudge participants to select from a list of names read out by the poller.

In this case, I think a very simple poll is more accurate than the crap they feed us. And shouldn't it all be about getting accurate numbers?

And that is why I have no respect for Zogby or any of the "reputable" polling firms.

John

Having not struggled with the problems, you'll have to imagine?

Submitted by denpratt on Sun, 12/23/2007 - 12:08.

Just some of the issues you'll have to come up with a solution for:

  • Where is your list of phone numbers from?
    (Overlap of phone numbers from different lists all considered 'current' are often only about 80%)
  • How up to date is your phone list?
    (30% of phone numbers change per year)
  • Does it include all residents in, say, NH?
    (How do you know?)
  • Does it include non-NH residents who may want to push an agenda?
  • Have you taken out people with two phone numbers (or triple or quadruple numbers)?
    (Different numbers for family members, different numbers for personal businesses. Famous polling errors have occurred just due to this error.)
  • Are you calling people on DNC lists?
    (Do not call lists have really skewed survey results.)
  • How do you handle people with cell phones only?
    (More and more people have only one.)
  • How do you handle people with both cell and land?
    (You can't double count them.)
  • What do you do with people who don't answer their phone?
    (Zogby has lamented that fewer and fewer of their calls actually ever get through -- too many screening with ANI and answering machines.)
  • What do you do with people who won't answer your questions?
    ("Good" non-refusal rates used to be 40%.)
  • What do you do with people who don't really know yet?
    (Polls that were done just two weeks ago had 80% of respondents saying they hadn't really made up their minds yet.)
  • How do you handle lying?
    (People may not want to tell you the truth, or may want to tell you what they think you want to say.)
  • How do you handle caller bias?
    (How the caller asks the question (or says candidate name) impacts results.)
  • How do you handle question ordering effect?
    (Which name you mention when impacts results.)
  • What is your mathmatical correction of phone number to voter?
    (If multiple people in a household, how do you allocate the stated vote by the person who answered the phone?)
  • What is your mathmatical correction for likelihood of voting?
    (People saying they will "definitely vote" have something like 50% chance of voting, depending on the race and weather, etc.)
  • ....

I've said it elsewhere, this is very hard stuff.


reLOVEution,
Dennis
"The best way to insure implicit obedience is to commence tyranny in nursery." - Disraeli

—

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

Product market research is

Submitted by FreeJesseVentura on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 16:43.

Product market research is the hardest because so many people actually don't have an opinion of consumer products until they see it. Deciding to actually spend money on something is what separates the wheat from the chaff, so it's better to get real product on the shelves in a test run to see if people will actually commit money. As for selling Ron Paul... his message is so good, it sells itself as long as people are exposed to the message.

—

..................
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore

zogby quote

Submitted by John_Doe on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 15:44.

As I said in another thread about Zogby's comments, don't be happy that Zogby thinks Ron Paul will do better than expected. Instead, be pissed at Zogby who KNOWS Ron Paul will do better but still publishes his dishonest polls.

John

why?

Submitted by smitty on Sat, 12/22/2007 - 16:22.

why be pissed? the older I get, the more I realize that it's a waste of time to waste my energy on "the corrupt." i.e. you reap what you sow! so I try to put my energy in to sacred purposes instead of revenge or trying to change people. if our light is strong enough, it will dispel the darkness!