What are RP's chances of becoming president?
Submitted by meowmixeater on Sun, 12/23/2007 - 23:19
I know that we've all taken hundreds of online polls and voted for Ron Paul but now I want to ask you all, How likely do you think it is that Ron Paul will be our next president. I know that everyone here out of excitement and zealousness will answer 100% or some really high number, but I want to ask you this question without all the hype. How seriously likely do you think He will win? Answer in percentages with 100% meaning 100% likely that he will win.
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sportsbook odds
I say good and looking better all the time. Asking this question, my guess is you are either not an RP supporter gathering info for some other cause or someone who would like to be a RP supporter but is still sitting on the fence because you don't believe he has a chance.
You want a percentage and it's awfully difficult to offer something like that based on scientific data, but I can tell you the odds that Las Vegas is offering. Sportsbook.com lists ron paul at 5:1 odds (20%) of winning the Republican Nomination. Personally I am comfortable taking that bet.
3 THINGS
THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 WAYS HE WOULD NOT WIN, ALL TO DEVIOUS AND HORRIFIC TO EXPOSE.
THEN THERE'S VOTER FRAUD IF YOU BELIEVE THAT SORT OF THING.
"THEN THERE'S VOTER FRAUD IF
"THEN THERE'S VOTER FRAUD IF YOU BELIEVE THAT SORT OF THING."
What's not to believe? Fraud is an absolute certainty in this election.
Aside from Paul, the "fiscally conservative" Republicans have 3 economic leftists: one is a Mormon, one is a former fascist dictator, and one thinks he is the second coming of Christ. Then you have a "maverick" (read: desperate panderer), and a guy who actually fits the Dittohead mold pretty well -- but he doesn't seem to want the job.
Then the "peace and love" Democrats have 2 war-hawks: a woman, and a black man with a scary-sounding name. Oh and they also have a guy who's dad happened to work in a mill, just like your dad.
Of the above, it'll be either the Mormon or Hitler (America will pick Hitler, because he happened to be in NYC on 9/11, and he furled his brow on camera, and because OH MY GOD MORMONS HAVE 6 WIVES NINE-ELEVEN!) against the woman (because a vote for this particular woman is actually a vote for a man who, for some reason, people think was a good president, and because OH MY GOD BLACK SKIN! THE SOUTH WILL RISE AGAIN!).
However the above mess pans out, it's got fraud written all over it. Which brings us back to Ron Paul, who will have to overcome fraud just to get the nomination, then overcome it again when he comes up against Clinton Incorporated.
Fraud, fraud and more fraud.
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there owned by the CCG or
there owned by the CCG or SPP whatever you wanna call the acronyms there corps and they will ignore him even if he wins because most people will be ransacking those places. no need for controlled media.
Good if 4th party
I say 4th party, because it appears Bloomberg will jump in and run; the media will give him the "3rd party" title. If he splits off from the Dems (Hillary), and the Reps nominate Rudy, then I think a four way run with Ron Paul as either the Lib or Const party nominee may work. I expect Bush, somehow to get into a war with Iran. This will, sadly, cause higher KIAs in Iraq and else-where; higher gas prices. Combined with heavy negative ads by Rudy, Mike and Hillary, enough people may send a message for change. This is the only way I see Ron winning. A great deal depends on his pick for Vice President. He needs a nationally known and respected figure who can bring 1-2% of voters, and money; one or two states would be a must.
However; in politics 24 hours is a lifetime. If he finishes third in Iowa, and third in New Hampshire, he will attract a bit more media attention, but as usual he will be written off by the MSM; they will focus on McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Thompson and Rudy. They are going to say; nice showing but "just third." When and where can Ron win?
With Ron Paul; and this is our hope; there is actually hope again in America; not because of him as a person so much, but rather because his message is about the Constitution. If he does well in the early states; he could very well cause enough people to take a serious look at him, in which we hope they see our message our the Constitution, and vote for him on Feb 5th, and beyond.
He does need to expand his base; this means expanding his message. While I love hearing about the Constitution, gun rights, etc; the larger part of the population however wants to hear about how to solve high gas prices, high credit card rates, banks taking our homes and cars away, etc.
So for now; full speed ahead for the early states; support; donate; canvass your area; write letters to folks in Iowa, NH, etc. Let us take a look at where we stand on Feb 5th.
Yep
The media will ignore him unless he comes first or second. I think he could part the Red Sea at this point and they would shrug their shoulders. Unless he keeps doing better as the primary season goes on and on. I think that is what will happen. All the other candidates are so crap, with skeletons bursting out everywhere, they won't 'break out'.
"What does conservatism today stand for? It stands for war. It stands for power. It stands for spying, jailing without trial, torture, counterfeiting without limit, and lying from morning to night."
Lew Rockwell
What a useless exercise.
What a useless exercise. Come on, if we didn't think he had a chance to win, what the heck would we all be doing here? To try to speculate as to his chance is ridiculous. His chances have been changing daily all year. Our job is to make sure his chances continue to increase until they reach 100%
www.paulforronpaul.com
Chance To Win
I would be here even if I thought Ron had no chance to win. Libertarian thought is much more than political philosophy; it is the moral good. It is key to ever having peace on this earth. Numbers do not matter; only the fight counts!
To those who despise Liberty, know this: You may steal my earnings and my liberties but I will always fight you! Should your thugs pull me from my bed at night and put me before the firing squad, you will not put down a stationary target. You will have to drop me as I charge your line! And I will die with a smile on my face because I will know as I fall that you, in your private self-loathing, are no better off. Life is about more than simply being alive -- it is about the freedom to pursue happiness -- and though you may remain alive the bit longer, you will live only as a walking corpse!
GOP First...
If he wins the Republican nomination, his chances of becoming president are rock solid. What dem could even stand up to him? Hillary-I-voted-for-the-war-Clinton?
Wait, I completely forgot
Wait, I completely forgot about our spammers! Above 100%, due to double-voting, rogue bot-nets, etc.
Seriously though, if Paul wins, brace yourselves for the accusations of ballot fraud. If he loses, prepare for the Revolution to make some accusations of our own, which will no doubt be warranted. Either way, a recount is likely.
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I'd Say 10%
I'll take a conservative estimate (no pun intended) and say 10%. I think that he has abotu a 20% chance at winning the nomination (compared to 20% for Romney and 15% for McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Thompson), and about a coin-toss for the general election, depending on whether we can convince the neo-cons to vote for us over Hillary Clinton. Now, considering that none of the other candidates would have a good chance at defeating Hillary (let's put it at 10%, due to Bloomberg), then what we have is this:
Clinton 49.2%
Obama 32.8%
Paul 10%
Romney 2%
Huckabee, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson 1.5%
I think those are pretty good odds, and keep in mind I'm being pessimistic.
50-50!
Let's be realistic. We have allot of hurdles to cross! As we've just seen the media can take something rather innocent and broadcast it a million times into people's heads. How many times did they run Huckabee's ad for free for him?
We have voter fraud to contend with. And we have allot of people to get to actually vote. Let's face it, we have our work cut out for us and let's not just daydream that everythings going to be fine.
We need to get to work! And continue to work until the job is done. There are going to be bumps in the road. And the biggest hurdle is our own inaction. I know from my own experience, I can do more. There are times I think...it's inappropriate to mention Ron Paul... and I don't. I need to discipline myself to be creative and interject the good Dr. at every occasion! I pledge to continue to do more and then more still until the job is done. And I encourage you to do the same!
Mike
Who is Ron Paul? I am Ron Paul! We are Ron Paul!
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Mike
"Fire Team for Freedom"
visit www.mikeandjake.com
Overall
I think it is essentially a decision between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Giuliani I never thought would amount to anything (though that just could have been my bias from being from NYC). Huckabee is too stereotyped into his minister role (and rightly so) to genuinely pose a threat of winning in the end. McCain is McCain and just can't cut it, especially after his odd relations with the Bush Administration during both election periods. Thompson doesn't even want to be running in the first place. So essentially I see it as Romney against Paul. Whether enough people know of Paul is really the million dollar question, assuming enough will agree with him. I know many who think he's a good genuine guy supporting crackpot ideas (not foreign policy but various other things).
Either way, I think he has to WIN New Hampshire and that is a big task, especially considering how early it is this time. Most people don't follow this stuff. They get their info from the media's reports on the winners of these early states. I mean I know I didn't follow this stuff till this time around.
Good
If we had another month, I would bet my house on it. As it is, I think they are getting exponentially better every week.
"What does conservatism today stand for? It stands for war. It stands for power. It stands for spying, jailing without trial, torture, counterfeiting without limit, and lying from morning to night."
Lew Rockwell
What are RP's chances of becoming president?
Rather good, I'd say.
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this message is distracting the mission
should be reported to management as detrimental to the cause
Why do you want to know?
I guess it's a reasonable question for entertainment purposes, but it is not a HELPFUL question.
A helpful question is ... what are the chances of US (Ron Paul and the community) winning the revolution?
Excellent. I've been saying for some months that all we need is 12-15% of the American people to become knowledgeable, connected, stalwart opponents of the status quo ... and 100+ years of patient Statist plotting and executing will be upset ... likely terminally. To lift a phrase from The Matrix, "Entire crops [of CopperTops] will be lost".
So, keep your eye on the ball. Ron Paul is not the ball.
Bill of Rights /Amendment X: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
Do you need a politician or judge to "interpret" those 28
100%
I think that it is very easy to vote for a President on the phone.
It is another thing to get out and vote in winter conditions at the primaries.
So voter turn out for all candidates except Ron Paul will be low.
Why will Ron Paul supporters show up: because they are
passionate about their vote and freedom.
I don't see that with most of the other Rep candidates except for
Romney because of his Mormon support . Huckabee has some passionate support but only10% of what Ron Paul has.
So most people look to the polls for a front runner truth is this time they are going to be way off. Looking at straw polls Ron Paul wins hands down.
Looking at internet polls again hands down. So if you had never seen or heard
anything in the past 6 months from the old media you would believe the truth
that Ron Paul has a very good chance of winning.
We don't need polls to tell us we are winning, we don't need old media to tell us we are losing
we know and have seen it first hand his support is huge, our friends,
our family, on the street corner, over freeways, at the grocerie stores,
signs everywhere, emails and comments on articles that you flick through
because you dont have time to read them all ,on you tube, yahoo, blogs
google and even in the skies. If there was ever a time to trust what you are seeing
this is it. This is a full blown revolution.
Once Ron Paul becomes the Rep nominee there will be no stopping him
He will be thrust into the White House by the people.
100%
I'm going to do what Ron
I'm going to do what Ron Paul does and not be an absolutist.
BUT, chances are that he very well could become our next President.
What we need to do is spread the freedom message and tell all the Republicans that the only Republican Presidential nominee who can beet the Democrats is Ron Paul.
Basically, if they want a Republican to win the White House, the only person who can win is Ron Paul. Period
Otherwise, every Republican might as well just hand over the election to the Dems.
So, we need to have the Ron Paul delegates at the brokered convention to convince all the other candidate's delegates that the only Republican nominee who can beet Hillary or Obama is Ron Paul. If we can accomplish those two things then Ron Paul will win.
It really is going to happen
Rudy already peaked and is TOO far to the right
Huck is peaking and will be falling by Feb/March, will not translate well nationally and is too far to the right
McCain is not an appealing candidate, he is also too far to the right...if you need an explanation for this statement...click to another post.
Thompson peaked in August and is again, too far to the right
Mitt is THE man who Dr. Paul will tangle with at the convention. Because he is so soft in all of positions he can be perceived as close to the center, but, when up against the doc he will look young and inexperienced which will not fly in war time.
In the general election we will be up to 200,000 activist supporters and the dems will deliver very little of what they are supposed to deliver which is anti war and change.
The dems are supposed to be on the left, but, since they are for war, they are on the right away from their traditional power base. Leaving their power base for Dr. Paul. Dr. Paul wins the presidency when he wins the nomination. THE DEMS HAVE NOTHING TO ANSWER THE DOC...NOTHING.
In the presidential election the candidate who is perceived as closest to the center wins.
The center is defined by the electorate. AT THIS TIME, ENDING THE WAR IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE US ELECTORATE.
Dr.Paul is all alone in the center of American politics. This is campaign miracle #148.
Dr. Paul is a moralist in a sea of liars. He is the man who values human life above all. His competitors cry for more war, death and more spending and more "security." They have all talked themselves away from the center where victory awaits them....thank God.
Dr. Paul WAS BORN IN THE CENTER. Of all the candidates from either party...DR. PAUL IS THE MOST MODERATE.
This post is not a bunch of cheerleader crap. Any political analyst will affirm the above...it is how the system works.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE HIGHLY EMOTIONAL AFFAIRS. PEOPLE VOTE FOR THIS ONE WITH THEIR FEELINGS.
O ye of little faith.
We want it more than they do...look at every graph. The money, people and our candidate's positioning in the eyes of the electorate. That is why Dr. Paul will win.
T
Lose the media clap...please...don't give your power to these people. In a recent survey 67% of the American people said they did not trust the media as a reliable source of information. People aren't stupid...it's just the media has been telling you that for so long you believe it.
Unify
Very, very good chance
I would put the percentage at about 65% today, and 90% if he gets the nomination. Why am I so optimistic? It's because I work in information technology, so it's my job to be up to date on the latest trends such as Digg.com, YouTube.com, Wordpress/Blogs etc. Believe it or not long before I heard of Ron Paul I had predicted some boat-rocking activity for the next presidential election although I didn't know it would be as good as RP. Low and behold we have candidates like Mike Gravel, Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich initially invisible in their debates ending up now getting nice amounts of exposure. Information is capable of spreading faster now than at any other time in history. New levels of communication are possible, which is how the money bombs came together so easily. Old media, and old politicians raise their eyebrows, and are taken aback at how much we people on the ground now actually have. And the good Dr. is now slowly making the transition backwards to entrenched Old Media. Dr. Paul's message is good enough, if only people have access to it. Thanks to technology, they now have that chance. Even with so much working against us, with our tools and the tremendous passion and dedication I have witnessed of RP supporters I can't help but be optimistic.
His odds are none if people sit home watching
His odds are none if people sit home watching results on the web or TV. otherwise he will have a chance when other candidates lose votes or run out of money.
What happens in a brokered convention?
What if no one is able to get a majority of the delegates? This is a distinct possibility given that there are 6 candidates polling between 10 and 25%. We need to get more delegates than Huckabee and convince him to endorse Paul and send his delegates our way. Given his recent statements about the Bush foreign policy, the fact that Paul and Huckabee are pro-life, pro-homeschooling and anti-IRS, and Huckabee has no money or organization, it's quite possible that we beat Huckabee and get his delegates to come our way. I don't think we'll get Rudy's delegates. Rudy and Ron are polar opposites. Can we get Fred Thompson's delegates? Possibly, if the choice is between Ron Paul and Rudy. Fred claims to be a consistent conservative, so I can't see him going with Rudy. McCain and Ron battled about the war, but McCain can't claim that "Washington changed" Ron Paul. McCain babbles on and on about the pork barrel spending. If that isn't just lip service, he's got to back Ron Paul. I don't know what to think of Romney, but he's shown an ability to blow with the breeze, and if the breeze is blowing Ron's way, Mitt might join up.
Realistically, do I think any of that will happen? I'm not sure, that's why I was glad that Ron didn't rule out a third party run this morning on Meet the Press. If he ends up with more money, more delegates, more votes, and a better organization and the RINOs coalesce around another candidate, Ron would be foolish not to go 3rd party. We'll see. The past few months have been fascinating to watch and no votes have even been counted yet. Fasten your seat belts everybody, it's going to be one heck of a ride.
I don't know...
I don't see any of those being offered anything SIGNIFICANT in a Ron Paul Administration...
McCain.... MAYBE for Secretary of Defense.. BUT.BUT.BUT.. He would have to follow the foreign policy of a PAUL Administration... HUMBLE...
I don't see ANY of these guyz coming over... Tom Tancredo I REALLY THOUGHT.. was gonna endorse Paul... He asked ON HIS WEB SITE for Ron Paul to "clarify" a question... right before he announced he was dropping out...
YET>.... HE ENDORSED ROMNEY!... WOW!! So I PRESUME Romney asked Tancredo to put the question up about Paul.. as an ATTEMPT at eroding support for Ron Paul.. AMONGST TANCREDO SUPPORTERS>..
Think about it...
A Landslide IS Possible
I think a landslide is possible. I ran some scenarios. Please see here:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/16827
--
"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams
--
"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams
I think a landslide is well on it's way.
I've never seen anything like the Ron Paul Revolution. I am proud to say that I am just one voice among millions who are standing up once and for all. It's almost unbelievable. I think the silent majority is finally speaking up and the establishment has been given due notice.
Long live Ron Paul, The Freedom Movement and long live the United State of America! 2008 WILL BE RON PAUL'S YEAR!... 2008 WILL BE OUR YEAR!
Happy holidays and happy new year everybody!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The American Revolution 2.0 will not be televised... It will be downloaded!!!
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"The greatest mystery of all is truth." - Me, 2009
Odds, in the short term, are irrelevant.
Are you trying to pick a winner or trying to pick the best person for our country to be President? Pick Ron Paul and you get both.
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The Dr's prescription: Take the red pill.
RON PAUL WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE!
Ron Paul is going to take it all! Havent you seen the enthusiasm and electricity of the crowds? Why do you think the "Tim Russerts" of media are so blatantly hostile towards Him? THEY ARE SCARED TO DEATH!! The enemies of this Nation, the "ex"-commie neo-cons and the "ex"-marxist liberals, ARE SHITTING THEIR PANTS!!! Absolutely 100%, RON PAUL WILL WIN!!! And THEY know it!!!!
Very Good Chance
I'm thinking that he has a very good chance. My reasoning is that he is well known in Iowa and N.H. and can pull of victories in either of those states. And that will give him a much better chance going into super tuesday, because the LSM will be going crazy and he has the funds to campaign in all the big states. I would say he has a 75% percent chance of getting the nomination. It really depends on if general voting public hears enough about him in time before they cast their votes.
I know that
Dr. Paul will definitely win but I just don't trust the electronic voting. I wish we could do something about that. I guess we just have to pray alot.
DO RUN RON!!!!
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