169 votes

Iowa Straw Poll: Ron Paul Statistical Tie for First

Video of Ron Paul's speech at 1:15pm CT

  1. 28.55% (4823 votes) – Michele Bachmann
  2. 27.65% (4671 votes) – Ron Paul
  3. 13.58% (2293 votes) – Tim Pawlenty
  4. 9.81% (1657 votes) – Rick Santorum
  5. 8.62% (1456 votes) – Herman Cain
  6. 4.25% (718 votes) – Rick Perry (write-in)
  7. 3.36% (567 votes) – Mitt Romney
  8. 2.28% (385 votes) – Newt Gingrich
  9. 0.41% (69 votes) – Jon Huntsman
  10. 0.21% (35 votes) – Thaddeus McCotter
  11. 0.96% (162 votes) – "Scattering" (votes for people not on the ballot who got less than 1%)

(16,892 votes total minus the above summed still leaves 56)

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It seems what really scares the media and establishment

Is Ron Paul seen as winning any event or coming in at the top.

I guess they feel that would shatter their tower of deception which they have built upon the public.

As long as they can portray him as coming in second, or lower, or the event not mattering, they feel fine reporting it in a limited fashion with their spin on it, and seem to think they can continue deceiving people.

But a win, that really scares the hell out of the establishment.

Therefore, we must give them one they cannot cover up!

And I think we will eventually.

Then it's over.

Local poll needs more votes!


Poll is on the right side of the story

A message to go viral with

Last election, the results of the Ames straw poll were read in reverse order: from losers to winner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuxlhelO6Q8 .
This year they said "Michelle Bachmann is the winner. Goodnight." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuxlhelO6Q8 .Its enough to make you question whether Bachmann won at all. thanks to patriotfilms for posting this link http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/08/conspiracy-theo...

Ahhh... this is how she have won

W/O Pawlenty's numbers, it takes next 5's totals to beat Paul

Since T-Paw dropped out, I wondered how many of the decided votes for lesser scoring candidates would it take to beat Ron Paul. Check it out: Santorum, + Cain, + Perry, + Romney, and + Gingrich totals= 4717

No wonder they're really nervous that folks are noticing their criminal behavior here. Where did the thirty dollars per straw poll participant go? Probably to the same place that thirty pieces of silver once went; and for much the same reason. Betrayal.

A lot of Iowans are waking up because they spent a lot of money to find out key persons at the top of their party declared their sincere efforts to participate, and their votes, as worse than worthless. Utterly contemptible!

Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them. - Frederick Douglass

The message is spreading

Take a look at this review of Liberty Defined. The Ron Paul message is spreading like wild fire. http://goo.gl/2TfjF

Statistical Tie??

Straw poll results aren't a statistic. Straw polls are not used for statistics. A statistical tie would only apply to a scientific poll. There is no margin of error in a straw poll. Bachmann won. It wasn't a tie. Straw polls are just a game to try to get your name circulating in the media.

Statistically, is less than 1% significant? No, not in this poll

Statistically, it is a tie.

The people write the headlines here, not the establishment. If you want the establishment headline of Bachmann winning, well you can get that just about everywhere else - so go do that.

A straw poll result

is not a statistic. A "statistical tie" would mean the difference would be within the margin of error. But what is the margin of error? There's not one in a straw poll. Tell us, what's the margin of error and how are you calculating it?

The headline just makes us look illiterate in regard to the whole concept of statistics.

Poll result percentages are statistics.

Besides if you don't like the word, it's still virtually a tie, practically a tie, essentially a tie, nearly a tie, almost a tie - pick the term you like the best, the poll was extremely close.

And that is what the media is not reporting. I don't think we would have to point out that it was nearly a tie, if the media was honest and fair.

Not STRAW poll percentages.

There is no margin of error in a straw poll. Margin of error only applies to scientific polls. Take a basic statistics course and you'll see what I'm talking about.

There's a difference between percentage and raw votes.

A percentage is in fact a statistic of the number of votes received over the total votes placed. I have not seen anyone claim there was a margin of error, the claim is that less than 1% difference is statistically insignificant and a tie.

To say it another way, percentage wise the poll was very near a tie.

A few seem to have trouble with grasping that, so you're not alone.


A "statistical tie" means it's within the margin of error. To say the 1% difference is "statistically insignificant" is to say it's within the margin of error. What's the margin of error?

The margin of error is in your thought process

Your mind is limited by the programming you received.

Probably a margin of error in your thought process too

Newspapers drive the expectation that everything called a poll has a margin of error. The textbook teaches differently. Pick your poison: Newspapers or textbooks.

And, yet the title is not refering to either.

There's the margin.

Without A Recount I'd Call It A Tie

You can call it whatever you like, but I don't have to agree with you.


This should be at the top of the site for a week or two.

Because it's the news that the media is not reporting. People are not going to get it anywhere else, and it exposes how unreliable the media really is.

Plus a lot effort and energy was involved. It should be the first thing people from everywhere see, when arriving here.

proof Bachmann cheated

pfft she cant win the caucus just look at this flyer she put up all over Ames.


and now sources say she gave out 6000 tickets to the event too.

good find. though, once

good find. though, once again... it all just goes back to penn and tellers "polls are b.s.".

That is simply disgusting.

Any normal person would be ashamed to do that.

Were people voting for Bachmann? Or were they voting to see Randy Travis?

Re: proof Bachmann cheated

I don't know how you can call that cheating. Opportunistic, lowly, pandering, shameless yes, but cheating no.

It would be great to get this image all over the Internet. Too bad that DP doesn't allow inlining images. If they did, you could post it to a new Topic and we could all vote it up, to get more exposure.

This is sampling and statistically Bachman and Paul are tied

The only reason people care about this straw poll is because it represents well Iowa's primary.
If Paul was first and Bachmann second, we'd heard from all media that they tied for the first within statistical error.

this is a lottery

and were all millionaires. What is interesting is that Romney decision not to campaign in iowa probably allowed bachmann to win.

"The Peace Candidate Always Wins." ~ Ron Paul, 2007

"The Peace Candidate Always Wins." ~ Ron Paul,2007

Peace through Strength [Strong National Defense] not by force [Militarism.]

Michael, I Believe I Understand The Meaning Of "Dead Heat"

By virtue of the fact that Dr. Paul lost by less than 1% of the vote, as "Straw Polls" are concerned, it was a "Statistical A Dead Heat."

There was no "Clear Winner" here. Less Than 1%?

They Both Tied, "Statistically"...It shows that they are both equally popular in Iowa. The Cacuses will determine the 'Real Winner' later on in the GOP race.

Since the vote totals are so close in number, a clear winner should not have been declared..They both won..

Odds are because of the high vote totals one of these candidates will probably win the Iowa Cacuses..

I don't see Perry challenging either one of these candidates.

However, since Perry is in the race now, the odds favor Paul winning the caucuses because both Perry and Bachmann will split the Neocon votes.


Although the mainstream media continues to attempt to marginalize Ron Paul's success, I am absolutely convinced that people as a whole are beginning to perceive him as a viable candidate. People at work, those in my neighborhood, as well as other friends and family are for the first time (unlike four years ago) asking me and my husband where to get Ron Paul bumper stickers such as the ones we have on our cars. Also, more people on the road are blowing their horns in approval when they see our RP bumper stickers. We are yet to spot any 2012 bumper stickers here in Florida of any of the other candidates. For cool bumper stickers at the lowest prices, please check out, www.Stickers2012.com.

Real freedom fighters never surrender.

"Why is he not electable?"

That's the question I would love to ask any talking head that claims that he is not, and watch them squirm. There's no way they can answer that without it merely coming across as their bias opinion.

They get away with it because nobody asks, or they don't allow anyone to. It only works because they are allowed to say it without qualification.

It's essentially slander.

How many votes can be generated in 1 hr?

If the voting machine vendor personnel/engineer was doing it, my guess would be, as many as you want.

However, if some election personnel is doing it by hand, like bubbling in Bachmann and another will scan in this bubbled election form, it would take from 3-6 seconds.

So in 3600 seconds == 1 hr, a staff of two can do approximately 600 to 1200 votes.

Some points to ponder re Straw Poll Results:
1. Voting results should in theory be instantaneous, so 1 hr leeway to get their act organized is plenty of time even for bureaucrats, if nothing was still being cooked up.
2. 2007 results were proudly delivered by a panel of 3 people at the podium, patiently going through bottom up lineup starting with McCain at 10th place..... This time, a bomb was drop for the 1st placer and THE END. Was the delivery boy the one willing to do the dirty work or was he at the lowest in the totem pole?
3. There were more people in the auditorium (not scientific) when Ron was speaking even more than Bachmann, including those like me who stayed to listen to her and Pawlenty.
4. There were hardly any Bachmann signs in the stadium. Lots of RP, some Pawlenty and less for Bachmann, and a sparse few for Thaddeus Cotter.
5. There is a sea of RP red shirts pictured in the main (RP) tent. Does anyone have an equivalent picture of crowd who voted Bachmann? Only media closed up view of a politician and her close entourage; clearly status quo candidate IMO.