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Iowa Straw Poll: Ron Paul Statistical Tie for First

Submitted by Michael Nystrom on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:28
in

Video of Ron Paul's speech at 1:15pm CT

  1. 28.55% (4823 votes) – Michele Bachmann
  2. 27.65% (4671 votes) – Ron Paul
  3. 13.58% (2293 votes) – Tim Pawlenty
  4. 9.81% (1657 votes) – Rick Santorum
  5. 8.62% (1456 votes) – Herman Cain
  6. 4.25% (718 votes) – Rick Perry (write-in)
  7. 3.36% (567 votes) – Mitt Romney
  8. 2.28% (385 votes) – Newt Gingrich
  9. 0.41% (69 votes) – Jon Huntsman
  10. 0.21% (35 votes) – Thaddeus McCotter

    11. 0.96% (162 votes) – "Scattering" (votes for people not on the ballot who got less than 1%)

(16,892 votes total minus the above summed still leaves 56)

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The 3rd option, being the

Submitted by starcraft on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 00:46.

The 3rd option, being the bureaucrats that they are having the audacity for doing this kind of thing often makes them callous. So they might just not bother with the manual inputting of the voting cards and just invented those numbers from thin air. Hence, if not already destroyed, the evidence should still be around somewhere.

emalvini's picture

beesting..Where's the Beef?

Submitted by emalvini on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:36.

Where's the beef?

If I Understand Your Meaning,,,

Submitted by beesting on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 00:13.

The beef is honesty !
Honesty equals trust.
In any kind of race or contest, cheating is not allowed.

If this was your meaning, commentator Dave Hodges, at the link in my previous post said:

Quote: "I have it by reliable sources that Ron Paul won "all" the exit polls at the Ames Iowa straw poll"! Finish quote.

I have no idea who his reliable sources are.

—

beesting

SteveMT's picture

I like that updated headline much better...statistical tie!,...

Submitted by SteveMT on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:32.

which will never be reported in such a way by the MSM.

Does Anybody Reading Have Any Exit Poll Results ?

Submitted by beesting on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:52.

According to this radio network:

http://republicbroadcasting.org/shoutcast/shoutcast.html

Ron Paul won every exit poll yesterday in Ames Iowa.

Please remember this is "Word of Mouth" .

—

beesting

emalvini's picture

Bev Harris : Expert Vote Fraud Investigator

Submitted by emalvini on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:33.

Bev Harris is an expert in Investigating Vote Fraud

visit Bev Harris' websites www.blackboxvoting.com and www.blackboxvoting.org

Note : I suggest that The Ron Paul 2012 Campaign at least get her take on the Ames Straw Poll Vote Fiasco..

It can't hurt to at least give her a call or send her an e-mail.

Rockwell says:The Straw Poll Was Probably Stolen From Ron Paul

Submitted by Paul_S. on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:36.

Lew "has it from a very good source" that believes that Ron actually won, but the GOP establishment fixed the results
http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/08/the-stra...

—

Free includes debt-free!

Something tells me

Submitted by SpaceCowboy on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:56.

that it's probably true.

I made a comment to a family member with whom I had been watching the event how odd the look was on the announcers face (Iowa Rep. party chairman Matt Strawn) and how odd his mannerisms were when he made the announcement. I'd like to see video of that moment replayed again.

Knowing the nature of the state, can anyone really be reasonably surprised if it were true? Really?

—

"For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise." - Benjamin Franklin

Link to 2011 and 2007 Straw Poll announcement

Submitted by patriotfilms on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:33.

Compare for yourself...

http://bit.ly/ov1lU4

Strange in deed...

Thanks!

Submitted by SpaceCowboy on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:42.

I found some on the EconomicPolicyJournal shortly after I had posted that statement.

—

"For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged, by better information or fuller consideration, to change opinions, even on important subjects, which I once thought right but found to be otherwise." - Benjamin Franklin

Thanks, Michael, For the Graphic

Submitted by IMissLiberty on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:16.

I'm sure you're very busy with your "hobby" this week! So, to have put up the nice bar chart, too, was great.

You have a good design talent which I'm reminded of every time I wear one of your Ron Paul T-shirts or visit this site (multi-daily).

—

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

Most votes ever at the Iowa

Submitted by Galileo on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:48.

Most votes ever at the Iowa Straw Poll:

George W. Bush (1999) 7418
Steve Forbes (1999) 4921
Michele Bachmann (2011) 4,823
RON PAUL (2011) 4,671
Mitt Romney (2007) 4516
Elizabeth Dole (1999) 3410
Mike Huckabee (2007) 2587
Bob Dole (1985) 2582
Phil Gramm (1985) 2582

http://www.dailypaul.com/174205/most-votes-ever-at-the-iowa-...

—

A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for Thomas Jefferson. A vote for Rand Paul is a vote for James Madison.

POV from someone who uses statistics

Submitted by MarkDran on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:46.

Ron Paul is not in a 'statistical tie' for first place. Ron Paul is in second place. It is a vote count plain and simple. However, I guess there could be a vote counting error. THey could measure the recount-count errors but if there are no counting errors, there are no statistical ties.

If this is a sampling of the

Submitted by starcraft on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:24.

If this is a sampling of the caucus or actual voting POPULATION, then INDEED, this is a statistical tie at 99% confidence. It is called a STRAW poll.

not a sampling.

Submitted by MarkDran on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 03:28.

Nope. This is just a vote. Not a sampling hypothesis. There is no basis for calculating a confidence interval. thats just poop.

You are correct. Statistics are as you say.

Submitted by Mark Twain on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 13:31.

Dear MarkDrun
cc: Semipiternal

I have a marked disdain for statistics.

MarkDran, you are correct stating facts about statistical method & use.

I replied to Semipiternal a moment ago on this reply thread.

Others are not properly correcting your statistical facts, for they are facts. And in fact, statistics itself has little to be desired. But, desire is but and opinion.

Not withstanding, "Lies, damn lies & statistics."

Thank you.

—

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul ☑

Staw polls are not official votes.

Submitted by We the People on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 09:50.

They are in fact a "hypothesis" of how candidates will perform in an actual vote.

Therefore, there is a degree of inaccuracy, and it could be said that as a hypothesis of the actual vote, Bachmann's and Paul's numbers are statistically equivalent given at least a 1% margin of error.

—

Ron Paul's Convention Speech

So wrong its pointless to debate

Submitted by MarkDran on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 11:33.

but I will say this-- the results are suspicious and certainly if Rominey had run in the straw poll, enoough votes would have pulled away from bachmann that Ron Paul would have won.

The sole purpose of a straw poll is a test.

Submitted by We the People on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 12:11.

Or a sample of how some might vote in the real vote, other than that it has no effect on anything.

It literally is a hypothetical vote. The hypothesis is that if one does well in the straw poll, one may do well in the real vote. Or, that people may be likely to vote for the same candidates that some vote for in the straw poll.

—

Ron Paul's Convention Speech

MarkDran is correct. He is stating facts about statistics.

Submitted by Mark Twain on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 13:24.

Dear Semipiternal

cc: MarkDrun

As much as I like each of your replies, MarkDran is correct stating facts about statistical method & use.

Much of what you convey is important to for perspective; but, MarkDran is correct

Not withstanding, "Lies, damn lies & statistics."

—

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul ☑

A political poll is not scientific

Submitted by We the People on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 16:29.

It's more of an art, and so are words.

—

Ron Paul's Convention Speech

Nor is statistics. Users oft practiced in the art of deception.

Submitted by Mark Twain on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 16:33.

Comments related to MarkDran correctly recounting that self defining statistics are as stated. Science was not accused... & may be innocent.

In statistics I do not trust. Both politics & statistics are self defining terms... Oft terms are too long. Abusive. Both are employed & "practiced in the art of deception.

I prefer Beesting & your comments along the lines: call it what you like, it was very close. Regards,

—

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul ☑

Strange statisitcs

Submitted by We the People on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 18:42.

In the end, MarkDran doesn't like the title here. But he's never written one himself.

Mad scientist.

—

Ron Paul's Convention Speech

Strange Statistics: ☑ Yes. Mad Scientist: ☑ Yes.

Submitted by Mark Twain on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:07.

Here is your report. Your score was 100% near as I could figure.
I have yet to factor in extra credit or bonuses. Winners will be determined after all checks clear. Thank you very much for your participation.

Sincerely,

—

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul ☑

as an engineer

Submitted by drheyde on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:24.

I agree.

hey

Submitted by RonPaul2012Freedom on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:24.

i want to say New Hampshire

a couple of positive thoughts

Submitted by iowamichelle on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:18.

I work in education and invited one of my co-workers to the straw poll, who I knew liked Ron Paul. I was really worried about it though since she's a co-worker. However, she was excited to go! But I ended up seeing two other co-workers in line to vote for Ron Paul too!! That's great news and encourages me to not be scared to mention him in conversation at work. In fact, the first question people ask at the beginning of the school year is, "How was your summer?/What did you do?" I really didn't do much except help the Ron Paul campaign, so that's what I've been saying! :)

I spoke with my brother today who is a Democrat but leans toward smaller, state/local control of government. He thought Ron Paul did very well and he was pleasantly surprised, but he also thought that Michele Bachmann was the worst out of all of them because in his mind she is the most bigoted of all the "social conservative" Republicans. I believe this might be a way to encourage more Democrats and Independents to become "Blue Republicans" if they are worried about Michele Bachmann winning, here in Iowa at least.

I agree with your brother.

Submitted by Crickett on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:53.

I agree with your brother. She scares me more than any. God tells her what to do, not her constituents. I would take Santorum before Bachmann. Just tell your brother there are only 2 candidates running. Ron Paul, and NOT-Ron Paul.

I don't think anyone who

Submitted by Victoria on Mon, 08/15/2011 - 01:38.

I don't think anyone who worked for the IRS could possibly be on the side of the people.

Iowa was Great Victory. However ....

Submitted by David Ware on Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:34.

We now need to figure out where is the next stop is. and start to think on how approach the next state. We need to go there and start to really spread the message. Does any one know where that is ?