3 votes

Does RP2012 have a "path to the nomination" mapped out?

I hear lots of talk about how the early primaries might play out. Of course, I understand, pundits discount Ron Paul in all of them. (except maybe Iowa) But I've yet to hear of anything about a strategy for securing the nomination. Is this simply going to be a shotgun approach and let's just hope we "do our best" in each state as it comes up, or is there some actual strategy about how it might be possible to win this or that early primary?

Politico doesn't seem to have too much in the way of recent polling by State, and other newer polls are all of the meaningless "national" vote. About a month ago, Paul was doing respectable in Iowa and gaining ground in New Hamshire, but his numbers from late June-August in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida are still way back in the single digits. (to be fair, his numbers nationally were this low at that time too but are now also near 15% to match his Iowa and NH numbers)

So, is concern for an actual strategy to win certain primaries and thus delegates founded? Or is there something in place that just isn't being discussed?

Can anyone from those early states report in with local polling if any that is more recent?

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Better than last time

There definitely seems to be some real strategic thinking from this campaign's leadership instead of the ideology-based approach of 2007-8. Last time they had Dr. Paul flying all over the country speaking wherever he could get a big crowd. John Tate and the leadership this time around realize that if they focus on Iowa they can get national attention because that's where the media is focused.

The path to the nomination has been pretty clear in the past cycles - a social conservative wins Iowa, a social moderate wins New Hampshire, then South Carolina breaks the tie and the winner has the momentum going to Super Tuesday. Our movement is suited to perform better in a caucus situation, thus he's in Iowa every week. We have a path to the nomination, however slim, because Dr. Paul is one of the few who could conceivably do well in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

To win delegates and win influence in local politics, our people have to take a long term focus. If everyone who voted for Paul in Iowa in 2008 stayed involved in the process, we'd own the Iowa GOP by now and its pry the same in other states. When people give up or grumble about fraud when they didn't have the votes to come in first they don't advance our long term revolution.

I agree on that, but...

...strategy without a tactical plan is useless. A tactical plan without execution is useless.

I think strategically, they are doing better than last time.

But it goes back to what I said below. The nomination is won on the ground, precinct by precinct.

The nomination will go to the campaign that can execute a tactical simultaneous multi-state ground game.

The national campaign staff just does not have the experience to organize and execute a simultaneous multi-state ground war.

Which leaves it to the grassroots. So, again, I must ask, are your canvassing precincts and attending your local GOP meetings?

If no, then we dont win.

Simple as that.

Path to the Nomination

1. Win Iowa
2. Bachman gone
3. 2nd in New Hampshire (to Romney)
4. Huntsman gone
5. 2nd in South Carolina (to Perry)
6. Cain, Gingrich, Santorum Gone
7. Win Nevada
8. Go into Florida, Michigan, and New Mexico sporting 2 wins to Romney and Perry's one
9. Plan for the General Election
10. Pick out curtains


I think Ron Paul needs to do the following:

1. Win Iowa
2. Win New Hampshire (it's going to tough with the Romney machine, but this would really shake up the whole "Media narrative" and strike a blow to Romney)

3. 2nd in South Carolina
4. Win in Nevada

5. Ron Paul will to be Rick Perry in the southern states somewhere.

6. Rick Perry must be perceived as a weak candidate by the time of the Texas Primary.

so we agree, step 1 is win

so we agree, step 1 is win Iowa.

First Nevada, then SC

February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
February 28 - Confirmed date of the South Carolina primary

my Ron Paul video collection:

(4 years RP, over 2300 videos)

No They Don't and Ignore the Media

Just ignore the media relating to this.

The win happens on the ground, in the precincts, precinct by precinct.

The RP campaign staff has gained experience winning a ground game on a state by state basis.

But a state race does not a national race make.

Unfortunately, they are unable to execute a multi-state simultaneous ground war. They just do not have the experience.

I'm sure they think they do. But thinking and knowing or doing are very different things.

I'm still donating and running for delegate again myself. I'm still all in. But got to deal with reality.

If you're not knocking doors and attending GOP meetings and/or the campaign isn't prodding you to do so and educating you on the process, unfortunately, it significantly decreases the liklihood of gaining the nomination.

The nomination will go to the campaign who does do the above.

Ignore what the media says.

A lot of the ground work was done in the last pres election...

at the precinct level all across the country. I think there will be a lot more Nevada like occurrences this time around!

I think

that's one of the reasons the campaign just launched their Phone From Home program, to try and collect that kind of data.

I agree this is something...

....and we should all be participating in this voter id effort.

I'm just concerned participation is low and it's a little too little a little too late.