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Ron Paul Winning the Info War in New Hampshire and Iowa

Hello everyone, my name is Brandon. I'm an SEO marketer, so I decided to look at the Paul campain from the standpoint of Google Trends.

This data has probably been seen before, but not so recently, and I wanted to provide an analysis regarding what it meant for the effectiveness of the various candidates' campaigns.

The conclusions I was able to come to are interesting, and I'm curious to hear your take on it.

Data on number of Google Searches over time, during the last 30 days (Compares Paul, Romney, Cain and Perry)

Data on number of Google Searches over time, during the last 12 Months

The lesson of the graph is that on the long term, Ron Paul handily trounces his opponents in a measure of online interest in the candidate.

And in the short term, though it is a closer race, he beats all other "top tier" candidates in the past 30 days in Iowa and New Hampshire.

On interesting thing to note on the 12 month graph, for all candidates, one can use it to measure where their candidacies are most effective, and where in the USA (down to the CITY level!) that they have been spending their time.

Ron Paul's graph seems to line up with the fact that he's been heavily campaigning in Iowa, New Hamphsire, Nevada (and recently, Louisiana). These are the states he's been focusing on. Texas is not the state that is "most interested" in him - in other words, he's not only appealing to his "hometown" crowd (though he does have interest from Texas.)

By contrast, in some cases, the other candidates show the unfortunate result of being most searched-for not in early primary states, but in their home states/home demographics. For Romney, this turns out to be Utah, not Massachusetts - Paul beats him there. For Cain, Georgia (South Carolina for now as well - Cain's biggest draw is in the South). For Perry, Texas and the South.

Also, the MSM has the least consistent coverage of Paul compared to the other candidates, but yet he continues to be showing up well online using searches of his name as a measure of intensity of user interest.

The data that I take away on this is that a) We don't need the Mainstream Media nearly as much as IT thinks we do, and news coverage does not generate grass roots support b) REAL support outside of one's home turf is somewhat hard to come by on the long term, unless you are Ron Paul c) many average Joe Voters are not thinking about who to vote for in any real meaningful manner (a habit encouraged by the media), and are susceptible therefore to Paulian education in economics and foreign policy d) looking at the city-by-city data, the Paul campaign's strategy to target local areas in Town Meetings, etc. may really be generating interest in those areas he touches.

The biggest thing I'd like to confirm is d) above. If anyone has the time and interest, I'd be curious to see exactly how Paul "hitting the Turf" or touching down in certain areas of Iowa, NH, Nevada etc correspond to a raising of interest in THAT area specifically, as measured through Google Trends.

One could also focus on major ad buys and see what the effect was on this graph, if you had the dates for the ad buys and knew what cities were purchased and for how long.

Sorry if this type of analysis is a little dry, though I find it intensely interesting and validating of the campaign's strategy as a whole.

We'll be here long after the Cain train is firmly de-railed by its own lack of direction, long after Romney returns to his Mittness Protection Program, long after Plastic Perry melts in the spotlight.

Anyone who says that our man can't win doesn't understand. Ron Paul HAS won - these graphs show it - all we're doing now is proving that fact to everyone else, in Spades!

Curious to see all y'all's interpretation of the data :)

Live Free,
Brandon
SEO Consultant

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Nice work!

Nice work!

Ron Pauls Supporters Pushing the Trends?

Since we RP supporters are doing so much research, could it be possible that we are pushing the trends up when doing the research and not necessarily the general public? Or along with the general public, we are assisting the trends?

bigmikedude's picture

That's what I tend to think.

There are thousands of us always searching for Ron Paul news, 24/7, which would line up directly with his NH and MA results.

Data analysis shows the light of truth

Bypass the media, we don't need to rely on them. Thank you all for your comments and insight. :) -zeekmort

Who remembers RonPaulGraphs.com?

That was a site that I visited as much as DP back in the '08 election... a fantastic collection of graphs of every aspect of Ron Paul's campaign. Just checked and the old site is still funtional:

http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/

I communicated with the owner once, great guy.. are you still out there?

'Cause there's a monster on the loose

Thanksgiving Dinner

Unfortunately, although I myself am 56, and, having sold computers in the 1980's, online, all the time, most people my age and older are not glued to the keyboard (or touch-screen as the youngsters like to call it).

This skews the results. I don't know how many people are online in older age-groups, though I understand they connect to grandkids through Facebook.

Unless we get busy and show screenings of FOR LIBERTY after the Thanksgiving meal for the rest of the family to make sure everyone gets the message, we won't know how well we're doing until it's too late.

Sending money to the campaign for TV ads is good, too. TV coverage and ads is still the legitimizer.

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

There are probably more of us

There are probably more of us than u think, since I am older than you. :) I remember we almost won Iowa after a screening of (that?) movie, which was well attended. I think that is a fabulous idea!

Note to campaign...

Hire zeekmort! Nice post, thanks for your intelligent actions.

'Cause there's a monster on the loose

Interesting and useful

to see the trends this way.

Texas blows my mind...

Thank you.

The law cannot make a wicked person virtuous…God’s grace alone can accomplish such a thing.
Ron Paul - The Revolution

Setting a good example is a far better way to spread ideals than through force of arms. Ron Paul

It all comes down to media

It all comes down to media propaganda or the effect of a similarly powerful propaganda machine. If you don't understand that the media is what makes and breaks campaigns you don't understand anything.

If anything what google trends shows me is that the reality is still the same, the media propaganda is propping up the status quo and ignoring Ron.

I don't care about online searches, because most of the voting masses are still way too exposed to media propaganda compared to the internet. Unfortunately we are still losing and until we finally understand this and develop our own propaganda machine as powerful as the MSM propaganda machine we don't stand a chance.

So we battle the MSM with Black This Out

I agree, the MSM propoganda machine is our biggest challenge. The Perry and Cain prop-ups are so obvious its sickening. That's why we are always trying to do something so strong they can't ignore us. Black This Out baby! I remember in 2007 looking at the Google trends and seeing how Ron owned the internet and still didn't poll better. We were all doing our best to wake people up in time. When Ron's predictions came true in 2008, I thought for sure the MSM couldn't ignore us if Ron ran in 2012. Geez, people really don't want to face the truth. It is an education process. The internet breeds activists. The majority of the thinking populace is on our side. Do we have time? I think we do. I think we are near the tipping point but it is hammer time for sure!

It Has Been Shown,

albeit anecdotally, that campaigning face to face in NH (and Iowa) is the single greatest factor in a popular candidate's success there. Therefore, your (d.) is born out by experience.

To show you how potent this factor is, in the 1992 primary in Dixville Notch, Andre Marrou, the Libertarian Party candidate for President visited and spoke to every voter in town over a period of several days before the primary. And, believe it or not, HE WON!. He garnered nearly half the votes there, beating every Republicrat, including Clinton and Bush Sr. It was so satisfying when my arrogant Democrat friend Clay had to eat crow after telling me that the news media would not even announce the votes for Marrou, if any were cast at all. When they announced he had won, it was the high political moment of my life (so far).

By the way, Clay has told me flat out that Ron Paul will not place in Iowa. It would be nice to see him eat it again, after 20 years of accepting my fate of supporting losers, especially if Ron wins it outright.

This confirms my thoughts exactly, thanks

This helps empirically confirm what I have known for some time now:

The real news and influence is shifting online.

- as a higher percentage of the public are online capable

and

- the corporate news establishment lies, manipulates, and gives unreliable information

so

- the MSM loses more and more credibility

then

- more and more people overtime are naturally turning to the web more and more for serious information about the world

This is why MSM polls and data of all sorts are becoming meaningless

These polls and data are not only blatantly manipulated in many cases ...

They are also *not* reflecting the true trends of what people are thinking, because they don't take search trending like this into account.

The MSM doesn't want to take this data into account when they give their *opinion* on the status of a candidate or campaign to the public.

In many ways the MSM sees online as a threat. Even if they have presence there.

Thanks

posting this on Twitter.

LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
http://www.dailypaul.com/203008/south-carolina-battle-of-cow...
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

Cain Train low on steam!

Click here to see third quarter #s for his CampAIN
http://theothermccain.com/2011/10/15/cain-campaign-finished-...

As one of his supporters tweeted: "Ugh, no wonder it wasn't leaked".

Thanks for the insight

Thanks for the insight, I visit google trends often (even though I don't like google, and they suck at updating the trends) and I had not thought of the fact that Ron is doing the bes outside his hometown compared to the others.
Cain is still becoming a big problem though, if things don't don't change soon he will be ahead Ron everywhere.

On a positive side there is the economic plan and Oct 19th coming, and google has not yet updated to days after the bloomberg debate.

"Give me Liberty or give me death." Patrick Henry

Brandon, this was a very incouraging bit of reading..

thanks for your research pal..

Loved reading this, thanks!

Loved reading this, thanks!