3 votes

Who is really in the lead in straw polls?

I am very tired of the "flip-flopping" by the news programs regarding the straw polls. One day they determine who the frontrunners are, and the next day they are unreliable and don't mean anything (usually when Ron Paul wins) or they don't report all the results (Ron Paul is left out of the reporting).

With that in mind, I undertook a slightly tedious project. I decided to look at ALL the straw polls (for which I could find reliable results) that have taken place in 2011 through October 15 (there were 28 of them). I used a spreadsheet program to compile the results of all 28 polls together.

FIRST, I averaged the results of each candidate for ALL 28 polls. This method weights all polls equally--i.e. polls that had a couple hundred votes have the same weight as polls that had several thousand votes.
There were a smattering of other candidates who got votes that ultimately declared themselves not to be candidates (i.e. Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, etc) that I did not include individually.

These are the straw poll average results for 28 polls:
1) Herman Cain 16.874 %
2) Ron Paul 15.475 %
3) Mitt Romney 14.424 %
4) Rick Perry 12.618 % * only counted in 15 polls
5) Michele Bachmann 6.978 %
6) Tim Pawlenty 5.905 %
7) Newt Gingrich 5.421 %
8) Rick Santorum 5.176 %
9) Sarah Palin 4.432 % **only counted in 13 polls
10) Jon Huntsman 1.597 %
11) Gary Johnson 1.024 %

In this case, the top 4 candidates are very close, and the next 5 are also very close.

THEN, I looked at the percentage of TOTAL VOTES each candidate got for all the straw polls COMBINED. This method weights the straw polls based on size--i.e. the larger polls have more weight than the smaller polls.

These are the straw poll percentages of total votes for all 28 polls:
1) Ron Paul 22.02 %
2) Herman Cain 17.07 %
3) Michele Bachmann 14.80%
4) Rick Perry 10.61 % *only counted in 15 polls
5) Mitt Romney 9.42 %
6) Rick Santorum 6.96 %
7) Tim Pawlenty 6.80 %
8) Newt Gingrich 3.73 %
9) Jon Huntsman 1.52 %
10) Sarah Palin 0.88 % **only counted in 13 polls
11) Gary Johnson 0.70 %

In this case, the top 4 are well spaced apart, and the next 5 are spread out a little more also.

Now, I want to provide the caveats--these are not scientific results. I am not a statistician. Some of the polls gave only the percentage of total votes but not the individual vote count. Some polls did not give a total vote count at all, so it figures into the first average, but could not be counted in the total votes percentage. Some polls only included the vote count for candidates that finished 5% or above. So, I have no way of knowing what the margin of error might be.

This information confirms what is probably the gut feeling of many readers at the DP--that newspapers, blogs, networks, research companies, etc. do not determine who the nominee is. The VOTERS determine that.




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Does it matter?

This is quite possibly the most important election of your lifetime.

If the polls said, "Ron Paul is ahead 51% to 49% for Romney", would you bet your life, bet your future on the polls?

Or would you keep working, keep pushing, until those polls read "Paul: 80%" or "Paul 90%"?

I see far too much potential for people to sit on their dead ends and do nothing because some "poll" indicates that Paul is ahead.

What if NONE OF IT IS TRUE?

Paul won all kinds of polls in the 2008 election. Guess what? He wasn't nominated.

If you WANT that kind of failure again, just keep following the polls. They will lead you straight to defeat.

On the other hand, if you want to WIN, pretend Paul is trailing in all the polls, and work to change that.

Here are two ways you can help without laying out much cash:

1) http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/faq.php
2) http://boycotts4paul.com

End media prejudice against Ron Paul in 2012.
Signup at http://boycotts4paul.com
or discuss at
http://dailypaul.com/165850/ending-the-media-prejudice-again...

By straw polls, the top tier seems to be:

1. Paul
2. Cain
3. Romney/Bachmann/Perry

Cain's numbers are fairly close to Paul's.

It's seems to be a three-way tie for third place...although the media seems to be through with Bachmann and Perry. However, there has been a lot of discussion about Mormonism in the media..."Should religion matter?", What is Mormonism commercials?, etc.

The What is Mormonism? commercials reminds me of the What is Scientology? commercials.

Anyway, the media should probably drop all the others from future debates. I would love for Gingrich and Johnson to stay in debates, but they don't have the support.

I did this recently...by sheer # of votes and by # of poll wins

http://www.dailypaul.com/183288/ron-paul-leading-straw-polls...

Ron Paul leading straw polls in number of votes and number of poll wins

There have been 29 GOP straw polls this year. Approximately 41,388 votes took place in those polls. Ron Paul is clearly getting more votes.

1. Paul 9395, 23% of all 41,388 votes
2. Cain 7073, 17%
3. Bachmann 5987, 14%
4. Perry 4289, 10%
5. Romney 3811, 9%
6. Santorum 2818, 7%
7. Pawlenty 2790, 7%
8. Gingrich 1510, 4%
9. Huntsman 622, 2%
10. Palin 452, 1%
11. Johnson 288, 1%
12. Daniels 287, 1%
13. Christie 279, 1%
14. Huckabee 248, 1%
15. Trump 207, 1% (rounded up)

There are others, but all under 100.

Notes:
-It seems that Cain deserves his high status.
-It seems that Romney does NOT deserve his high status.
-Bachmann surprised me with her third place

=====================================================

How about who won the most straw polls? Ron Paul wins again. He won 10 of the 29 straw polls!!!!

Going by Olympic weighting: 3 points for gold (1st place), 2 points for silver (2nd), 1 point for bronze (3rd):

Name 1st / 2nd / 3rd = TOTAL POINTS
1. Paul: 10 / 3 / 0 = 36
2. Cain: 9 / 3 / 2 = 35
3. Romney: 4 / 7 / 6 = 32
4. Bachmann: 1 / 4 / 5 = 16
5. Perry: 0 / 6 / 2 = 14
6. Gingrich: 0 / 3 / 1 = 7
7. Huckabee: 1 / 1 / 1 = 6
8. Santorum: 1 / 0 / 3 = 6
9. Daniels: 1 / 0 / 1 = 4
10. Pawlenty: 0 / 1 / 2 = 4
11. Karger: 1 / 0 / 0 = 3
12. Barbour: 1 / 0 / 0 = 3
13. Palin: 0 / 0 / 3 = 3
14. Huntsman: 0 / 1 / 0 = 2
15. Johnson: 0 / 0 / 1 = 1
16. Trump: 0 / 0 / 1 = 1
17. McCotter: 0 / 0 / 1 = 1

Notes:
-Only seven of these races were big polls (over 1000 voters).
-Paul won 4 big polls and 6 small polls
-Cain won 2 big polls and 7 small polls
-Bachmann won one big poll (then she ate it)
-Romney won 4 small polls...lol
-Romney is the most consisent, placing in the top three 17 times; followed by Cain (14 times), then Paul (13 times)

I like the overall numbers at the top. It shows that, by far, people are voting for Ron Paul.

Feel free to post these numbers wherever you want. I'll try to update as more straw polls come out.

Google Docs anyone?

If you can put this in a google spreadsheet and it keep it up to date there.. ill transfer the info to the wikipedia and keep it up to date as well... lets keep the info flowing!

YES you all did great! Little

YES you all did great! Little does MSM know....

great work !!

great work !!

Thanks!

I asked about this in an earlier post ( http://www.dailypaul.com/182891/combined-straw-poll-standing...) and never got a response.
Glad to see Ron Paul is either in the lead or second (depending on which average you use)! It's kinda what I thought!
Now if you can keep it up (since you already have the spreadsheet) with all the new straw polls it could give some added info for us!