2012 Popular Vote Projection w/ Ron Paul as 3rd Party.Submitted by Browncoat on Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:25
Theres a lot of quick math here. Theres a lot of averaging. But its as close as I can get without massive amount of unobtainable data.
Basically I took the 1992 election and substituted Obama for Clinton, Romney for Bush, and Paul for Perot.
there are 1.25x more voters in 2008 than in 1992, but the popular vote has risen an average 10.8% per election since 2000.
after adding 10.8% to the 2008 totals. and dividing by the 1992 totals and %s. I figured that Ron Paul would do better than Perot, and get Perot's adjusted numbers + take 20% each from Obama and Romney.
the 2012 Election is as follows:
Paul: 35.22% @ 51,252,055 votes
Obama: 34.62% @ 50,378,937 votes
Romney: 30.15% @43,874,204 votes
ALSO CONSIDER: That Perot did as well as he did with Stockdale as Vice. STOCKDALE! So Imagine the increase in viability with Kucinich, established, popular, and easily erodes Obama's liberal base. Keep that in mind.
Theres WAAAAAAAAY too much math for me to do an electoral college projection.