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Jon Huntsman ahead of Ron Paul? True...

Hi Folks,

This is how it stands: Market traders believe Jon Huntsman has a better chance of winning the GOP nomination than the Good Doctor Ron Paul. Now, we all know better. But politicos and pundits frequently peruse the Intrade market to add evidence to their ever-fluctuating opinions or to gauge how confident market traders are in a candidate's campaign or how well a candidate is running his/her campaign. For this reason I have started pushing the idea of buying up RP's shares, which are right now very cheap, on this market. I've created a chip-in site if you feel you want to get in on this endeavor. Right now, market traders are only giving RP a 6% chance! If we buy up some of those shares, the price is bound to go up. Since the associated financial risk is high, I figured chip-in would be best so that we can nickel and dime RP's share price up to a decent level

Please visit the chip-in site. I explain more about how I am operating this there.

Many thanks,
Eric

Link: http://ronpaulbrochure.chipin.com/ron-paul-intrade-buy



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Jon Huntsman WOULD be ahead of Ron Paul...

were this 2010. The world is transforming rapidly and those part of the establishment are fooling themselves if they ignore it. There are really only two options, Ron Paul or violent revolution. The establishment,just like the French elite, are just to self-centered and insulated to realize their only hope of survival is a Paul presidency and the reforms it would bring.

This is why I've always

This is why I've always rejected the classical notion that the market is rational. It is extremeley irrational and too mired in conventional wisdom. The moneyball problem, if you will.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Yes, this is a notion I always see in liberal rhetoric too.

Every system has rules, and within that set of rules, an internal logic. The market is a system, not an entity. It has no more ability to act rationally than the sum of all its actors. But what its actors have is the potential for rational behavior. And first and foremost, short-term self-interest is the most rational behavior.

This might seem odd to you or me, but it's been the same phenomenon Austrian economists, particularly Hayek, have been warning us about for decades. You've heard of the term "perverse incentive" right?

The etymological and semantical origins of the term conjure up some unnatural effect on the market that produces "irrational" behavior. But is it really irrational?

If you concentrate market power into a government body, is it rational to trust your rivals not to abuse it? Especially when you know you will be put at a competitive disadvantage if you don't?

We can't control for those aberrations created by government, but it's of little consequence, because whatever effects government policy has on the market will always cause people to act in their rational interest.

This is what many liberals don't understand. If we don't understand it either, we're finished. Objectively, of course, you are right -- the market is NOT rational... at least by the sum of all its short-term and long-term goals. But such a conflict between short-term versus long-term effects has always been a problem endemic to human psychology.

For many people living in inner city environments, crime is a rational choice. That's just another example of a perverse incentive.

The point of all of this is that when liberals take aim at us for believing humans are faultless and noble, and won't run roughshod over each other, we need to clamp down on that argument, because it is an egregious distortion of what "rational self-interest" really means.

Libertarianism is NOT utopian for believing in rational self-interest; rather it is the most realistic because it rationally assumes people will make poor choices -- in the market and elsewhere.

It ASSUMES that by consolidating power into unnatural entities that you effectively direct the market's actors to favor their short-term interests more than their long ones. That is why government policy inevitably enriches the rich further still, while the poor are wiped out. Government eventually becomes incumbency protection for the super-wealthy.

If you argue your case like this, as I have, you might be more successful at least starting a dialogue with a few receptive liberals. Just something I've observed and thought I'd put out there.

Never forget:

To disagree, one doesn't have to be disagreeable.


- Barry Goldwater

Nice post, but that wasn't

Nice post, but that wasn't where I was going.

Classical/Austrian economists believe that the government creates the business cycle because the marketplace is too rational to create it. I believe that the government exaggerates the cycle in both directions, but we'd always have a business cycle regardless.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

awesome documentary on that...

Good comment! There's an amazing documentary about that very topic. It's called The Century of the Self. Have you seen it? I highly recommend it!

ChipIn to send superbrochures! Find a collection event here: http://www.ronpaulchipin.com

Why not let people buy the

Why not let people buy the shares themselves so they can have their profits when the RP stock inevitably skyrockets as he gets the nomination?

For...

In the early stages that certainly is doable. And I encourage people to do that! But as shares move into the hands of RP supporters, the share price is going to get pricey. Additionally, this is a high-risk, low-reward scenario; nickel and diming our way there reduces the risk and makes it easier to commit. It's not as if I'm running a scam.

ChipIn to send superbrochures! Find a collection event here: http://www.ronpaulchipin.com