The 'Hard Ceiling'Submitted by DriftForge on Wed, 12/07/2011 - 06:28
Along with the '.. is unelectable', another line that hasn't got as much debate but in many ways underpins that line is the one that regularly crops up that 'Ron Paul has a hard ceiling of support.'
So lets look at the latest Marist Iowa Poll to see if there is any truth to this statement. This is the 25/18/16 Gingrich/Paul/Romney poll of recent days. Alternatively -10/+0/-7 for the same three respectively against Obama. Before the end of Cain.
The following question was asked: "Please tell me if you would find each of the following candidates acceptable, acceptable but with reservations, or not acceptable as the
Republican nominee for president: "
- Mitt Romney 46% 28% 24%
- Newt Gingrich 54% 27% 16%
- Ron Paul 38% 34% 26%
The critical number here is the last one on each line; which one of these is not acceptable as a candidate. These are the people who would not ever vote for Ron Paul; the 'hard ceiling'.
Ron Paul's 'Hard Ceiling' in Iowa is 74%.
Even his 'Ceiling of Some Concern' is 40%.
The 'Hard Ceiling' is a fallacy, repeated as truth.
A further note of interest from the same polls. About 30% of the support for Romney and Gingrich is based largely on their 'electability'. I.E about 14% in total is up for grabs from those two candidates alone were the 'electability' of Ron Paul be demonstrated.
This is a significant issue for which a case has to be mounted. We cannot accept that there is a 'Hard Ceiling'; that truism is the sole basis of the 'unelectable' meme. And the numbers disprove that quite comprehensively.