Ron Paul will Win Iowa...
...if 22% of 2004 George W. voters turnout to vote.
Here are my calculations:
IOWA GOP = 1,300,000 people
Current polls:
HUCKABEE - 28.30%
ROMNEY - 27.70%
MCCAIN - 12.00%
THOMPSON - 10.70%
RON PAUL - 6.55%
GIULIANI - 5.80%
In real terms (people), the support looks like this:
HUCKABEE - 367,900
ROMNEY - 360,100
MCCAIN - 156,000
THOMPSON - 139,100
RON PAUL - 85,150
GIULIANI - 75,400
Historically, 5% turnout to vote for their candidate. So here is the support for each candidate based on this 5% turnout:
HUCKABEE - 18,395 votes
ROMNEY - 18,005
MCCAIN - 7,800
THOMPSON - 6,955
RON PAUL - 4,258
GIULIANI - 3,770
Ron Paul is at 6.55% in Iowa. This gives him 4,258 votes if 5% turnout. For him to win, he needs 22% of his GOP base to vote. This would equal 18,733 votes, putting him in the lead.
RON PAUL - 85,150 x 22% = 18,733 votes.
This beats Huckabee by 350 votes!
Of course, Independents, Democrats and young Republicans have not been included into the calculations.
600
According to RonPaulGraphs over 600 individuals from Iowa have donated, if donation levels are at 1% we will get 60K votes. We will see in 2 days.
We can't forget
There are thousands of new registered voters in Iowa, people who never voted before. (Here in SC we had 28,000 new voters register this year!) We all now 100% of our Ron Paul supporters will turn out. We are going to win by a landslide!
I can't stand the wait....
Mathew 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.
GOP numbers?
Is 1,300,000 Iowan Republicans accurate? I thought the GOP base would have dramatically shrunk.