Iowa prediction !Submitted by free voice on Sun, 12/11/2011 - 03:48
After tonight's debate here is my analysis and prediction..
We need to remember that tonight's debate was was most important for the people in Iowa.
Here is my analysis.
1. Gingrich: doesn't have a solid support ( even though he polls high, but most of his supporters are still on the fence). He was exposed in many ways. He could lose some of his supporters. For the people who were leaning to him, he didn't say anything special to convince them. So they are either on still undecided, or they found someone else to vote for. Overall effect in Iowa, he will probably lose 2-3%. Come Jan 3rd, he doesn't have strong organization and he will do much worse than his polls. He will probably get in the low twentees. and come in second.
2. Romny: Doesn't have a solid support, but his base a bit more solid than Gingrich. He will probably not lose any of his supporters. But he defenetly lost many of the people on the fence. His overall effect. his poll numbers peaked. He will not get any more support in Iowa. He will get high teens come Jan 3rd. he will probably finish 3rd.
3. Perry: he has been airing many ads appealing to christian conservatives. His performance was solid, in this debate. For those people who liked his ads, and wanted to listen more from him, he was able to keep them interested. with his 3 weeks buss tour. I think he will be able to get his numbers in the mid teens by Jan 3rd. He will come in 4th.
4. Bachmann: her support is more solid in Iowa. she did very good for her supporters, but it will be hard to see if she can manage to attract anyone new to her campaign. With her continious campaign in Iowa, she will probably finished in double digits and finish 5th. She will drop.
5. Santorom: he did pretty good today. But he is not being able to attract anyone's attention. he has been campaigning in Iowa for months now and his numbers have not moved much.
He will still finish in single digit come Jan 3rd. close to 7%. He will come in 6th. He will drop.
6. Dr. Paul: his support is solid in Iowa. for all of those who recieved the support brochour and wanted to listen to the guy, he was very presidential. He did not get attacked, he stayed on the message. Addressed real problems and solutions. He almost got endorcement from 2 other candidates. He probably convinced few more people to stick around, and listen more, or even fully convinced some to vote for him. Overall, he will gain at least 2-3 points from todays debate. Come Jan 3rd, he will finish in high twentees, beating gingrich by 5%points. and Romeny by 10%.
Jan 4th, the story in the news will be.
Rich perry shows surprize strength in Iwoa finishing a strong 4th, Romney's Campaign in trouble after finishing a weak third. Gingrich atracts more than 20% vote in Iowa, and finished a strong 2nd.
Post your analysis and prediction bellow.. !!!