Parallels to 2008 -Opinion polls leading up to the Iowa primarySubmitted by Octavian on Sun, 12/11/2011 - 23:47
Opinion polls leading up to Iowa Caucus can be found on wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_t...
They paint an interesting and encouraging picture. In general, polls underestimated RP by a few percentage points, but were much more accurate than expected at the time. The parallels to the current election cycle beg consideration;
Romney, the longstanding front runner, faded at the very end, effectively ending his campaign. A late surge by Huckabee (Newt?) reflected in the polls leading up to primary. Eventual winner of the nomination, John McCain, did poorly, but exceeded expectations (I think Santorum will exceed). Most importantly, opinion polls accurately identified the caucus leaders by mid-December 2007.
Fortunately, Paul was only polling in the 5% range in mid-December 2007, so there's still an opportunity to make a strong move. Also, there will be no Obama/Clinton to siphon off independents. Finally, Newt doesn't have the pull with Evangelicals that Huck had. Paul could use an Iowa ad that talks about the role of his faith in his decisions (Christian just war theory, sanctity of life, importance of family, ...).
By looking at history, expectations for a win are high, but not out of the question. RON PAUL 2012