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Parallels to 2008 -Opinion polls leading up to the Iowa primary

Opinion polls leading up to Iowa Caucus can be found on wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_t...

They paint an interesting and encouraging picture. In general, polls underestimated RP by a few percentage points, but were much more accurate than expected at the time. The parallels to the current election cycle beg consideration;

Romney, the longstanding front runner, faded at the very end, effectively ending his campaign. A late surge by Huckabee (Newt?) reflected in the polls leading up to primary. Eventual winner of the nomination, John McCain, did poorly, but exceeded expectations (I think Santorum will exceed). Most importantly, opinion polls accurately identified the caucus leaders by mid-December 2007.

Fortunately, Paul was only polling in the 5% range in mid-December 2007, so there's still an opportunity to make a strong move. Also, there will be no Obama/Clinton to siphon off independents. Finally, Newt doesn't have the pull with Evangelicals that Huck had. Paul could use an Iowa ad that talks about the role of his faith in his decisions (Christian just war theory, sanctity of life, importance of family, ...).

By looking at history, expectations for a win are high, but not out of the question. RON PAUL 2012




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Funny thing is...

That Ron came in at 10% but not a single poll seems to have had him anywhere near that high. An encouraging sign that the pollsters did not take into account Ron's base which is much more organized now and is sure to repeat.

Zogby had Ron at 10% in it's

Zogby had Ron at 10% in it's final poll before the Iowa Caucuses in 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_t...

10-15 million more voters need to believe in non-interventionism (liberty) at home and abroad to change America. Minds changed on Syria. Minds changing on privacy. "Printing money" is part of the dialogue. Win minds through focus, strategy.

I'll comment, don't expect

I'll comment, don't expect many though.

Yes, polls are accurate. In fact, notice how the numbers at the link you provided underestimate actual percentages on election day. How is that? Because there is no 10.5% undecided on election day obviously.

Polls are accurate but they are not yet settled. There will certainly be considerable movement before 1/3.

Thanks for posting.

10-15 million more voters need to believe in non-interventionism (liberty) at home and abroad to change America. Minds changed on Syria. Minds changing on privacy. "Printing money" is part of the dialogue. Win minds through focus, strategy.

Maybe I'm a cynic ...

but I happen to believe that the MSM sanctioned polls are accurate only because they are supported by vote fraud. In other words, John McCain was handed the nomination.

You may be right...

but what choice do we have other than to participate in the charade? I think we have to do our best given the circumstances. That's the only way to reach people. If we reject what most people take for granted, then we'll alienate far more than we convince.