Univ. of Iowa Poll: Gingrich 30%, Romney 20%, Paul 11%, Bachmann 9%, Perry 8%. Still Much Work to Do!Submitted by rp311 on Mon, 12/12/2011 - 19:51
Results before Cain suspended his campaign: Gingrich 38%, Romney 22%, Bachmann 10%, Paul 7%, Cain 7% Perry 5%
Results after Cain suspended his campaign: Gingrich 24%, Romney 19%, Paul 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 7%
It appears as though they averaged the two together for the official results.
(CNN) According to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, 30% of likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa say they support Gingrich for their party's presidential nomination, with 20% saying they back Romney and 11% supporting Paul.
The survey indicates that 9% say they support Bachmann, with 8% backing Perry, 5% supporting Santorum and Huntsman at 1%. Around 4% had said they were backing Cain, who suspended his campaign while the poll was being conducted.
A CNN/Time/ORC International poll released last week indicated Gingrich with a 13-point lead over Romney among likely caucus goers.
According to the University of Iowa survey, Gingrich's margin over Romney is smaller among "very likely" caucus goers, but larger among those "somewhat likely" to attend the caucuses.
"Gingrich faces at least two obstacles according to our data," says Fred Boehmke of the University of Iowa. "His run at the top may be starting to tail off as it has for previous front-runners. He also faces the challenge of turning out his supporters on caucus night, which will be critical since the gap between him and Romney is narrower among 'very likely' GOP caucusers and 'strong' Republicans."
The poll indicates that Gingrich's support is more than double Romney's among those who say they're backers of the tea party movement.
"Gingrich has become the tea party candidate in this race, and this bodes well for him," says the University of Iowa's Caroline Tolbert says. "Turnout of Tea Party supporters on caucus night could be key to his success in the state."
The American Research Group poll was conducted by telephone, with 600 likely Iowa GOP caucus goers questioned. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.
The Hawkeye Poll was conducted by the University of Iowa from Nov. 30 to Dec.7, before Saturday's debate in the Hawkeye state, with 277 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points.