283 votes

Public Policy Polling - Iowa: Gingrich 22%, Paul 21%, Romney 16%


Gingrich 22%
Paul 21%
Romney 16%

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

I'll bet you $10,000 we're gonna win Iowa.

Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come.

Iowa is cold in January and the young people are gonna face the weather.

I'll bet you $10,000 we're gonna win Iowa.

From now on I'm going to fast two days a week

and pray for Ron Paul's win of Iowa.

“History has never been dominated by majorities, but only by dedicated minorities who stand unconditionally on their faith.” --R.J. Rushdoony

Are you doing this because

Are you doing this because you pledged your grocery budget to the money bomb?

Thank you Rusty!

To the front page with it....


Biggest Ron Paul news ever,

Biggest Ron Paul news ever, so far that is.

I think Ron Paul should stay out of the future debates

...he should end strong with that last debate and it cuts off any attempt to deflate his numbers and spread propaganda with 7+million viewers.

Update: Or not..lol I see this isn't a popular statement...hahahah

It's unpopular because your

It's unpopular because your faith in the message is waivering! You have to believe that the more RP gets to speak the more people will learn. I know he wants to win the Presidency, but I really truly believe that the Good Doctor wants real change toward Liberty and Peace, no matter if he resides in the White House or not. We are winning no matter what...History will be on our side =)

Love, Liberty, and Truth

The only thing that will

cause the tide to turn for liberty, without Dr. Paul in the White House, will be the regret of citizens when they've lost theirs. Sure, more people are aware, but there is enough power at the top to steamroll over it.

my heart smiles!

Great news, be proud and keep fighting!

posting on Twitter right away

Let's make this one go viral.

LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

good LORD

This just made my day.
Thank you for posting this.

LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

One word for you....


I'm sending this to Drudge right now.

"Trust men and they will be true to you; treat them greatly, and they will show themselves great." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

same here

Drudge Report...please folks send it to Drudge.

LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

Favorability of 61/30

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:


this is heartening (and I guess more recent), but realclearpolitics has different different numbers...

I'm also worried if we (are) peak (ing) too early. I guess I'd like to get some reassurance from the board lol.

Admittedly, I hope Gingrich flames out epically. I think he's a harder debate opponent than Romney. This is regardless of Gingrich's incorrect opinions. So yes, I worry about Gingrich and Dr. Paul being in the top 2 together.

Plus a Romney/Dr. Paul debate can have some good discussion points on both sides. Can't say that about a Gingrich/Dr. Paul debate. I'm free market and have no issue with PE cos.

I haven't seen any signs of a

I haven't seen any signs of a peak....I see clear evidence of a steady upward trend....as each establishment candidate pops and fizzles Dr. Paul gains another few percent and stays within the "top tier" to the annoyance of the media....the numbers are showing slow, steady gains for the Doctor....with most of his support seeing him as the ONLY choice once they come over to our side....Newt, however, has peaked and is shedding supporters fast....a lot of whom will come here....and I do think that Dr. Paul has a ceiling....it's 100%.... :)

"Peaking early" only applies to the charlatans

The whole "peaking early" concept doesn't apply to Ron Paul, if the concept has any legitimacy at all.

A candidate who is all style and no substance may peak, because the sizzle is what attracts the crowd, who thinks there will be steak, and then as they come closer to inspect, they see there's no steak. They may still stick around because sizzle without steak is still better than no sizzle or steak, but as soon as there's a new sizzle, they're gone.

Ron Paul is steak. When people find steak, they stick around unless there's a better steak. There is not no better steak than Ron Paul. He's ALL STEAK.

I think this is just about as perfect as you can get

You're almost never going to peek exactly on election day. I think this timing is superb. Obviously, it doesn't guarantee a win (keep working!), but I don't know how you'd plan it any better than this.

Prepare for the attacks. They will be vicious!

but that's my pt...

I'm anxious that a grassroots campaign can withstand choreographed attacks from the media...

I know Obama won via grassroots, but he had the media with him. J. Alter (Newsweek) sold out Hillary for Obama right at the very start of '08. And Ted Kennedy just about put a public hit on Hillary at the same time.

Can we withstand 8 mths of media warfare on us? I hope so but I have reservations.

Whether you can do it or not is not the point

You have to do it to be successful. There's no reason to be afraid. It is what it is. You just have to put one foot in front of the other, and keep fighting your way to the finish.

That's the best you can do; fear can't be a factor because fear guarantees failure.

You think this is a PEAK?

You think this is a PEAK? LOL..we have just started climbing..:)


Dr. Paul performs in the caucuses better than the polls. Look at his numbers in 2008. He was polling around 4% in Iowa he got 10%. He was polling nationally around 2% and got 16% in MN, 15% in NV, 23% in WA, and 20% in AK. I'm not worried about early peak. The establishment won't attack until after Iowa. They want Gingrich out.

RCP has not been updated to reflect this new poll yet

RCP is just an average of all the recent polls, this will bring Newt's average down and Paul's average up as soon as they update it.

As far as peaking too early I don't think so there isn't much time left before the caucus this surge is right on time.

Gingrich will go down in flames after he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire he's got no money nor organization I predict he will drop out after a few contests like Giuliani and Fred Thompson did last go around.

Very good pts!

I keep forgetting Gingrich has no real organization and high debt! Beautiful news. Also there's a reason Thune and Christie went right by Newt.

Slight disagreement with the parallel, though. I think Newt parallels Giuliani more than he does F Thom. Remember, Fred never "popped" in '08. That was part of his death knell; the "pop" people expected never came and the republicans got bored waiting and looked the other way. Newt certainly has "popped". Can he maintain it? Hell, no!

But I also worry if WE can keep our momentum that long, once Dr. Paul pops in Iowa. I admit, I've never worked on a political team so my standards of time are probably different. I still think 3 weeks is a god-awful long period of time...which worries me. We have to avoid a Jim Profitt-like fiasco!

My only concern is . . .

on the Republican side, the winner of Iowa, doesn't generally get the nomination...

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Dr. Paul supporter all the way, but I'm antsy about breaking out the champagne just for Iowa. I'm torn...

Historically a candidate with

Historically a candidate with 100% integrity (not to mention the right ideology) doesn't win the presidency.

So of all the precedents we'd be setting when Dr. Paul wins, breaking the "curse of Iowa" is the least of them. :)

yes, but historically, Dubya

yes, but historically, Dubya proved the exception. And he did come from the Camelot of the Republicans...

I don't think Dr. Paul has the same luxuries.

Not true

Dabya did it.

whatever that is silly

GWB won in Iowa in 2000 and went on to be president for 8 years

I'm checking others

and Dole did it too. Don't forget that Ron Paul has the luxury of a week field. The establishment guy has a ceiling of 20%. If Gingrich drops out and it is between us an Romney, it will be a landslide for Dr. Paul in big states like TX and CA.