15 votes

Breaking: Rasmussen Poll Numbers

RASMUSSEN IOWA: Romney 23, Gingrich 20, Paul 18... DEVELOPING...

Posted on: http://www.drudgereport.com/

Hold on for demographics

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elec...



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it is not as bad as it looks

it is not as bad as it looks like.
different pollsters conduct their polls differely.
So if you want to see the progress, just compare the current results with the previous data from the same pollsters.
if you look at the data in
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/io...

In all the recent polls, RP has gained anywhere between 4-5%

If you take the average of the past 3 polls, which were conducted in Dec. the results are still very good..

Gingrich 23%
Paul 18.6%
Romney 17%

We are within the margin of error.

This could be a good thing...

A story on NPR noted that the winner of the Iowa straw poll has never gone on to win the presidency... Give it to 'em, if true!

Do they run these polls like...

every 10 minutes? It has become absurd. I am going into so what mode.

Turnout

If RP supporters are 3 times more likely to turn out than other candidates (especially in inclement weather), Today's poll would suggest a 54% win for Paul. 3 x 18% = 54%.

Even at 1.25% more that other candidates that's a 22.5% Second Place, which represents 1/2% behind Mittens. That's a win in my book.

~ Engage in the war of attrition: http://pacalliance.us/redamendment/

OBVIOUS reason for this...

With Rasmussen's previous "Grinch 22/Paul 21" poll that would force RP into a CENTER podium for tonight's debate. Now with this being the "best & newest" they can continue to have Mittens Getrich in the middle "as if they are somebodies."

Wrong--

Rasmussen's previous poll (from 11/15) had this result: Gingrich 32%, Romney 19%, PAUL 10%. You are referring to a PPP poll from 12/13.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/io...

margin of error

The machine the evil machine always knows how to tip the margin of error to neo-cons advantage.

LL on Twitter: http://twitter.com/LibertyPoet
sometimes LL can suck & sometimes LL rocks!
http://www.dailypaul.com/203008/south-carolina-battle-of-cow...
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

Front Runners

These so called "front-runners" and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly and for the same reason!

The bold effort the present bank had made to control the government ... are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it-Andrew Jackson

The numbers may not be that far off - but this works out Great!

Let's focus on the positive here , Romney is going to peak prematurely.

IMO, Romney has been the establishment's choice all along while the other flavors-of-the-month have been distractions to keep the limelight off of Mitt until the heart of the primaries.

If Mitt takes 1st in Iowa and Dr. Paul 2nd the media will not discredit the results as they would if we win. But with a strong showing in Iowa Dr. Paul will not be dismissed by voters.

Mitt's surge will not last much longer than a month as conservatives recall that he himself claims to be a moderate and Progressive.

They will be out of candidate ammo. Or will they? There are rumors going around today that some Iowa residents are getting robo calls asking who they would support:

a.) Newt Gingrich
b.) Mitt Romney
c.) Jeb Bush

You've got to be kidding, another Bush.

Also on Drudge

Guys

It's not about the total support you have, but rather ts about how many show up on caucus night. That's why the phone project is vital. If your not making calls, your not helping Ron win in the early states.

Bad weather rides

I confess to not knowing much about Iowa. Will some people stay home because of bad driving conditions? Will they accept a ride from a young Ron Paul supporter with a vehicle well suited for bad weather?

Maybe, some sort of help can be provided by Ron Paul caucus goers with coordination of canvassers.

Have no fear.

We are determined to get Dr. Paul nominated. Some Iowans tend to be either a bit fickle about driving in bad weather, and others go totally "balls-out" and would drive over a 10 foot snow drift to get to the polls. Local RP campaigners are in the latter camp and are more than willing to offer rides, bad weather or not. My right hand is getting all twitchy just thinking about writing "Ron Paul" on that sheet of paper in January. :)

In the words of Mark Twain...

"There are 'lies'...there are 'damn lies'...and then there are 'STATISTICS'."

Or, in this case, "polls".

Rasmussen lies again.

With EVERYONE saying "Ron Paul's poll numbers are steady," Rasmussen would have us believe Romney surged. What nonsense.

It's too bad they don't do one every week!

I bet if they did it every week they would find the poll so out of touch with reality that they couldn't rely on it any more...

With

a conservative assumption of getting 40% indy votes, I believe we have a winner in Dr. Paul. But I did not research that.

So

Just magically all the sudden people like romney for no reason?

amazing!!!!

Has the campaign made any Romney ads

yet?

Aw, isn't this clever.

Rassmussen also reports poll of Huntsman leading over Ron Paul in New Hampshire now. Can you guess what the reporters will be talking about on air tonight. They will conceed that Ron Paul will finish strong in Iowa, but now they'll focus on the new flavor of the week to rise like a shining star in New Hampshire. Polls are like statistics, you can make them say anything you want them to.

alan laney

It would be interesting to

It would be interesting to Google trend drudge report Romney and drudgereport Grinch to see if drudge favors Romney like their poll I bet

Christmas Holiday

The holidays are a great time to share videos about Ron Paul with the extended family, especially those not wired in to the 'net. "For Liberty" makes a good evening's entertainment for the old folks who don't want to watch Rudolph, again.

Just sayin'... And, some grandparents will vote for your guy, just to make you happy...

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

Rasmussen polling methodology underestimates RPs support

Rasmussen's polling methodology is actually quite good for conventional candidates but it underestimates support for unconventional candidates like RP.

I don't believe he does this to target RP specifically, it's just that RP draws in a lot of new support from unconventional sources that Rasmussen's methods simply do not capture.

RP consistently underpolled in Rasmussen polls in 2008 and RP ended up doing substantially better than Rasmussen polls suggested.

win it

Let's get the bodies to caucus and we win it.

For a Rasmussen poll

these are actually good numbers. I haven't seen a Rasmussen poll with RP higher than 14 - 15%

I'd be willing to bet if Ron

I'd be willing to bet if Ron Paul does win, the margin may not be what we are expecting. The media will then say "yeah but he only won by 1-2%!

Anyways, you can't assume every poll is going to have us in a certain position. He will fluctuate from 2nd-3rd a lot. I just hope one of these shows him as #1 soon. Pollsters don't ask the same people as another pollster so you're going to get varying %'s. But we do know that he is projecting in the right direction.

Something fishy with this

Something fishy with this poll. All will be told on the 3rd.

If you walk blindly through life, you will run into a lot of walls.

Rasmussen poll

Highlights: 12 point decrease for Gingrich, 8 point increase for Paul, and 4 point increase for Romney since last month's Rasmussen poll.

Also:

Iowa Republicans say they have sensed a drop-off in support for Gingrich in the last few days. "People are saying OK, let's reassess this," one insider says of voter opinion on Gingrich. "Is this really a decision we want to make? What I'm hearing is thinking about the general election and the unpredictable nature of him as our nominee. I don't have any empirical data to back it up, but it's just a feeling I've gotten in the last 24 hours."

Source: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/poll-dramatic-drop-gingrich-support-iowa/258131

ecorob's picture

I'd like to see the demographic of this poll.

I think they have Dr. Paul about 10% too low!

That is treason, my friends, if they knowingly corrupt the poll.

its 'cos I owe ya, my young friend...
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