63 votes

NEW Iowa Poll has Ron Paul with 27.5%

This poll was from December 8th to 18th. Previous was from November 1 to 13.

ISU/Gazette/KCRG Iowa Poll:

Paul 27.5% +7.1
Gingrich 25.3% +20.5
Romney 17.5% +1.2
Perry 11.2% +3.3
Bachmann 7.4% -0.4
Santorum 4.9% 0.0
Cain 0.4% -25
Huntsman 0.3% 0.0

Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU. That’s up from 20.4 percent in an ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll in November. He’s followed closely by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich whose support increased from 4.8 percent to 25.3 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in at 17.5 percent, up from 16.3.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the only other candidate to poll in double digits at 11.2 percent – an increase from 7.9 percent a month earlier.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann slipped four-tenths of a percentage point to 7.4 percent. Former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum edged up two-tenths of a percentage point to at 4.9 percent. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign while he was the frontrunner at 24.5 percent, fell to 0.4 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman polled 0.3 percent and “can’t decide” at 5.4 percent. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Vote-2012-Ron-Paul-Takes-Lead...

More data here: http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/dec/ISUpoll2



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Gingrich at 25%. Great News !!

This is the best aspect of this poll. The fact that Gingrich is at 25% is going to help Ron Paul. The attack will stay focused on him. This will give RP some time to expand his lead and help him build momentum for NH before they start attacking him. No way Gingrich is at 25%, he is more like at 10%. I hope that they don't come up with new polls soon.

Is the polling done only on

Home telephones? If so, they are not reaching many of the voters of whom are for RP. 30% of all the votes RP gets will be from people who would never be reached from this antiquated polling system. I am hoping for a huge win in Iowa so people can't ignore it.

Fresno, CA

I was wondering this as well.

I was wondering this as well. This is very encouraging. (from the link)

"I think Paul probably under-polls," said Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll. "His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds."

I wonder how much of a difference cell phones make. I don't have a landline and none of my friends do either. It could be quite significant.

I wish I could +1 this five

I wish I could +1 this five hundred more times.

- Grow Mushrooms at Home
http://subfarms.com

steady.....

Im not trying to get my hopes to high. But I can barely contain my excitement.

ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

PAAAAAUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUULLLLLLLLLLLLLL

'Peace is a powerful message.' Ron Paul

Who best for Second place?

If (may God will it, and I don't want to take anything for granted or become overconfident. We are 10 points behind in Iowa) Ron Paul wins, is it better for us for Romney to finish second or Gingrich? Gingrich finishing second might knock Romney out of first place in New Hampshire, but a strong Newt could be a bigger threat in the south. What do you all think?

Would a relatively strong showing by Bachman, Perry or Santorum help split the anti-Paul vote in the south?

“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” William Pitt

If I remember right

last election Huckabee swept the south but McCain still won the primary. I think it is possible for Newt to win the south. However, with a 3 man race at this point, every state is going to count even more.

No suprise here

Ron Rocks

Ron Paul 2012!

Room for optimism

In every other poll, Paul gathers more support from men than he does with women. That he is now gaining support among woman is indicative that his support is going to grow.

Though i wish he had more people naming him as their second choice.

2nd place

If they knew enough about him to like him, he would be 1st place. Either you write him off b/c he's too different or you don't know much about it or you are a support. There's a bit of room between, but not much. Those not for him are often just uneducated. The Christmas in Iowa and New Year in NH programs are going to be great!

----------------------
Lymeade Lady
lymeadehealth.blogspot.com

Women ...

Maybe that new ad with his former ob/gyn patients is supposed to address this gap. Can't say the ad does much for me personally, but maybe it will raise his numbers among women in Iowa (particularly the evangelical ones).

What's amazing is...

... the number of boneheads who decided that they like Newt Gingrich more now than in November. The guy has left a 20 year trail of destruction and garbage behind him, but as long as the news waves a shiny coin in front their face and says "over here! Look over here!" they can somehow fool people into thinking that this big-government, socialist, cap-and-trade goon is the guy we want.

Unbelievable.

Can I also mention that the false flag "Anonymous" supposed cyber attack threat on the IA caucus (even though it's a caucus, so a cyber attack doesn't really make sense) now requires that the FBI be there for the voting. Do I need to say that I don't trust what is going on there at all?

The 99% Supports Ron Paul!

Support for candidates based on annual income:

<25k

  • Paul: 50.0%
  • Gingrich: 13.6%
  • Romney: 6.8%
  • Perry: 11.4%
  • Bachman: 11.4%
  • Santorum: 6.8%
  • Huntsman: 0.0%

25k-50k

  • Paul: 14.3%
  • Gingrich: 25.0%
  • Romney: 21.4%
  • Perry: 19.0%
  • Bachman: 11.4%
  • Santorum: 2.4%
  • Huntsman: 1.2%

50k-75k

  • Paul: 43.5%
  • Gingrich: 19.6%
  • Romney: 15.2%
  • Perry: 7.6%
  • Bachman: 11.4%
  • Santorum: 1.1%
  • Huntsman: 1.1%

75k-100k

  • Paul: 25.9%
  • Gingrich: 37.9%
  • Romney: 17.5%
  • Perry: 6.9%
  • Bachman: 8.7%
  • Santorum: 6.9%
  • Huntsman: 0.0%

>100k

  • Paul: 9.8%
  • Gingrich: 27.5%
  • Romney: 23.5%
  • Perry: 13.7%
  • Bachman: 1.7%
  • Santorum: 11.8%
  • Huntsman: 0.0%

Refused

  • Paul: 23.1%
  • Gingrich: 30.8%
  • Romney: 15.4%
  • Perry: 7.7%
  • Bachman: 3.9%
  • Santorum: 2.6%
  • Huntsman: 0.0%

The ceiling has been raised

Great news.

Tim Maitski
Atlanta real estate agent
Atlanta real estate website

We are on the verge of a

We are on the verge of a great victory.

how

anyone could have polled in the negative is beyond me.
would the ceiling then be 0?

Nobody polled in the negative

Those numbers that come after the percentages are the nominal differences in percentages since the previous poll done by this group.

Like we're 10 points behind !

Is this going to be another poll ignored by RCP... ?
Any way it's cool, it stays a poll which we should always be skeptical & of course we can never let them make us complacent (I know I don't really have to specify that here).

"Give me Liberty or give me death." Patrick Henry

Although

Although the poll numbers are exciting, I think the real excitement is set to happen in 13 days! I'm an Iowan, and I'm getting some darn good vibes!

Had a good friend stop by yesterday. He has recently transferred to a new job and works closely with one other guy. He said the subject of politics came up and his co-worker exclaimed (shouted) "I'm voting for Ron Paul! He's the guy that will protect our gun rights!"

Yeah, freedom is popular.

ecorob's picture

i'm a tennessean...

and i'm feeling some darn good vibes through you!

keep up the good work, pass us the torch, and we'll carry it through!

its 'cos I owe ya, my young friend...
Rockin' the FREE world in Tennessee since 1957!
9/11 Truth.

surprises me that undecided is so low

phone banking in Iowa, for me anyway, was a TON of undecided voters. maybe theyre finally making up their minds...

I phoned a lot of undecideds too

Maybe the professional pollsters are a little pushier and don't take "I don't know" for an answer.

Although this is a very good

Although this is a very good news, there are few things we need to consider when we look at these numbers.

1. This poll unlike other polls, is polling the same people as they did before, Nov1-Nov13. Based on realclearpolitics.com Dr. Paul was polling around 10% in other polls. That means this poll might have picked some Paul supporter to begin with.
2. The good news here is his support increased by 7% within the same people. That is real and measureable growth. Has nothing to do with statistics or probability.
3. 51% of Paul supporters are 100% sure they will vote for him while gingrich and Romney get about 16%. that could be the real difference in this poll.

I heard a guy on here complain about MSM Polls and said to stop

listening to them and now I think I'm beginning to learn why he said those things although I discreditted him at first I now think what you said your post above is the real reason. The Polls do not represent real statistics or probability.

I know Paul wins, and we have to act as winners now and cause a stir in public about him winning now. He was always winning it's just now the MSM is coming to grips with it and they are backing our claim now even though they don't want to do it. But let's not make the media our credibility let's make it alternative media and the DP our credibility. Let's make "ourselves" our own credibility!

Insanity

18-29] 59.6%
30-44] 53.2%

Crazy poll numbers from young voters.

They use the Internet more and are thinkers.

The older crowd are smart but are having one-way conversations with the BOOB-TUBE... Like their parents used to say...They spend so much damn time in front of the TV that they end up becoming BOOBs.

By they way were you named after Willard?

age discrimination

Do not buy into the latest propaganda. The PTB would have you believe that only those who realy dont vote and dont matter would support Ron Paul. Sonny im 57 and i live in RP 14th congressional district. Without people like me, people who have used the computer longer than most of any age. People who have kept Ron Paul elected against all odds for decades. Carful of your proclaimation for actually your elders are leading this fight for freedom and have been fighting for their entire life times. These polls are mostly bought and paid for with Digitized debt issue at usury Federal Bank (Private Corporate) counterfit money and tools for those who wish to keep decieving us.

sovereign

Shhhhh

I'm 60. But, I think I'm 30. That must explain it. hehe

RON PAUL 2012 * Restore America * Bring The Troops Home
http://www.texasuncensored.blogspot.com

Don't count out the older votes

Not all older voters are blinded by the media, but unfortunately a lot are. "Age doesn't always bring wisdom. Sometimes it comes alone" :)

The bold effort the present bank had made to control the government ... are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it-Andrew Jackson