Results: ..... WHO HAS TRUE VISION?
This poor Washington Post reporter has just posted his predictions (below) without listing Ron Paul.
Iowa Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Giuliani
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. Giuliani
Full article at:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/02/post_253...
**** Let’s try ours. Iowa, NH, first through fifth, include percentages if you really want to claim all the Prognosticative Glory*****
*************UPDATE***************
Dozens of DPers made predictions right before Iowa, see below: where would RP's campaign be today, Jan. 9th?
70% thought he would have finished first or second in Iowa or NH.
None predicted as low as 5th and 4th.
Verdict: call your eye doctor. We had no vision. We'd better get some fast or we'll never pursue the right strategies.
-JP
no one was close unfortunately
see the comments
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
OK...
...who won bragging rights? :)
..................
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
just iowa
romeny 28%
huck 25%
paul 22%
mcain 9%
thompson 5%
As promised this prediction poll just closed at noon est
We had several dozen responses. I'll gather them together.
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
Candidates peak at different times
Dr. Paul is not peaking now. That is fine.
McCain is starting to peak and Huck is finishing his peak. Thompson and Rudy have finished peaking and Mitt hasn't peaked yet.
IOWA
1)Huck
2)Mitt
3)Dr. Paul (tie with McCain)
3)McCain
4)Rudy
5)Thompson
NH
1)Mitt
2)McCain
3) Dr.Paul
4)Huck
5)Rudy
6)Thompson
If Thompson doesn't do well in SC he might drop out. Keep in mind that NOBODY is going to be in front by more than few delegates. This makes it hard to drop out and may keep everyone in.
QUIZ:
Is everyone staying in until the end good for Dr. Paul?
a) No it will keep the spotlight away from him.
b) No it will take votes away from him.
c) None of the above.
C is correct. Dr. Paul will not benefit from Rudy, Thompson or McCain dropping out. These men are too far to the right to offer Dr. Paul any votes.
Dr. Paul is going to get just enough coverage to keep building, but, with all six in the race the others will beat each other up...this is also good for Dr. Paul. These 5 men are TAKING VOTES AWAY FROM EACH OTHER. This is a miracle. WE WANT THEM ALL TO STAY IN AS IT PREVENTS ONE OF THEM FROM ESTABLISHING A LEAD.
So, believe it or not, root for Fred and Rudy to hang on . Dr. Paul needs to dilute the right wing vote and weaken Romney. This is good.
The doc has a good shot at 3rd in both. If McCain's surge effects that result it is GOOD for Dr. Paul. We want McCain to weaken Huck and Mitt...this is GOOD!
Keep your eye on the big picture. Despite rumors to the contrary, Dr. Paul has had 10% of the media coverage as the other men. As the doc gets some 3rd's and 4th's and a 2nd or two May will arrive and he'll be right in the middle of it.
EYE ON THE PRIZE. Go McCain! Kick Mitt's and Huck's and Rudy's and Fred's butts! Fight over the right wing vote...we love it!
This is politics NOT EMOTIONS. This is the first 5 minutes of a basketball game. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHO IS AHEAD NOW. Minneapolis matters.
We want it more than they do. We will win in the end.
T
Unify
Dilute the right wing vote? You mean the traitorous neocon vote
John McCain is best buddies with John Kerry and Joe Lieberman and he votes very, very liberal as well. He and Huckleberry are taking the liberal and neocon vote (too many Bible thumpers think they are conservative when they are, in fact, liberal in absolutely every way except they don't like premarital sex).
These Are Going To Be the Numbers
Iowa:
Huckabee 28%
Romney 24%
Paul 20%
McCain 12%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 2%
New Hampshire:
Paul 28%
McCain 26%
Romney 25%
Giuliani 9%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
McCain has no organization in Iowa. Plus he’ll throw about 1500 votes to Huckabee to insure his win. Ron, will double his final day polling as we all know. Tonight the media will be scratching their heads, but what they don’t realize is that on the GOP side Ron’s Iowa organization is 2nd only to Romney’s. What would be nice is an extremely low turnout due to the Huckabee/Romney pissing contest. In this case 2nd for Ron may be possible.
El Dorado
the fix is on
I've looked at 3 MSM print articles this morning & no Ron Paul in any..not a word..
randy n.
Don't forget Hunter
Iowa:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. McCain
5. Thompson
6. Giuliani
7. Hunter
New Hampshire:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Giuliani
5. Huckabee
6. Hunter
(Thompson dropped out after Iowa)
2+ hours til polls close on your predictions.
Get on the record now if you haven't.
Who has TRUE vision, not only predicting Iowa, but Iowa's effect on NH.
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
Here in Black and White
Iowa Republicans:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. McCain
5. Thompson
New Hampshire, Republicans:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3, McCain
4. Giuliani
Sorry Huck - but the Gomer Pile meets Mussolini act just aint gonna cut it in the "Live Free or Die State".
look at the straw polls
He has the most wins and finishes in the top 3 most of the time. I might be biased watching the Ron Paul ad while Huckabee tries his best on Leno and say he stays the course at most number 1 spots with a few 2nd and 3rds.
If votes are counted correctly
Ron Paul 38% in Iowa and 42% in NH of course wins both, Independent surge is the reason, they LOVE the Freedom message !!!!!
"Freedom is a right that can never be won in war,only by each individual "
One thing is for sure
Ghouliani and Fredneck will have poor showings... and RON PAUL WILL SURPRISE!
I feel it will be Ron and Mittens head to head all the way to the convention. Minneapolis is a nice place to be in the Fall, and I think things will get interesting up there ...
R3VOLUTION - Secret Crowds
Ok I'm in before bed
Iowa
Paul - 30%
Romney - 23%
Huckleberry - 21%
Goolinai - 9%
Thompson - 9%
McCan't - 8%
NH (Live free or die baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Paul - 98%
Other - 2%
"A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within" W. Durant
He was obviously a social sciences major...
Iowa:
Huckabee: 24%
Romney: 22%
Paul: 19%
McCain: 16%
Guiliani: 8%
Thompson: 6%
Guiliani: 5%
Hunter: .005%
New Hampshire:
Ron Paul: 34%
Romney: 23%
McCain: 21%
Huckabee: 11%
Guiliani: 7%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter Drops Out
What he said!
http://www.tragedyandhope.com
http://www.im2moro.com
Late night predictions, make your late night predictions here
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
Posted earlier today
I made my picks this morning on this blog: http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucus-prediction...
Thanks bjneiman for the updated poll numbers. I just heard that figure of 15,000 confirmed caucus goers from my district chair an hour or so ago, but I didn't know where it came from. I hope its accurate because that is almost a guaranteed third and anyone who comes out on a whim or has escaped the pollsters just closes the margin to 2nd.
1st BAYYYYBEEE
He's coming in first im tellin ya!
Dr. Paul --- 3rd
Dr. Paul --- 3rd Place.
Romney is going to bus in thousands and thousands of supporters like he did for the Straw Poll. These people are pretty hardcore.
Tomorrow, Huckabee will probably claim to have authored the Sermon on the Mount and evangelicals will hail his presidency as the Second Coming.
I really don't think there is any way to beat them but I truly believe we will beat out McCain and everyone else for third. I would gladly welcome Dr. Paul and his Iowa supporters to prove me wrong, however. :-)
My thoughts
Since I now know that the Iowa Rep caucus is like a strawpoll and since Dr Paul has done so well with strawpolls:
Dr Paul 1st and the lowest I see him is 2nd place. The rest of the candidates, I have no clue because they haven't been handling themselves too well lately and Dr Paul is the one with the huge grassroots movement all over the country. Hope I'm right and we'll know tomorrow night.
I'm looking into my crystal ball right now
I see the Iowa flag, it is waving proudly. I see...you've got to be kidding me! Does anyone have a 9volt battery?
Paul for 3rd in Iowa
I predict 20,000 Caucus goers turn out for Paul. (This number is based on an auto-dial phone poll (landline) of every registered Iowa Republican that said they are likely to caucus for Paul + guesstimates for cell phone users and party switchers)
With a turnout between 80,000 and 100,000 that gives a percentage of:
20% - 25%
That figure is more likely to net a 3rd place finish than a 2nd --though not impossible.
The phone poll referenced
The phone poll referenced above gave us 15,000 likely caucus goers
What do you guys think that
What do you guys think that a 20% - 25% result will place Paul? 2nd or 3rd?
I'll make it simple
IA and NH:
Ron Paul > 26%
The Thugs<16%
Dems: Obama wins, Princess Hillary gets really mad!
JB
"You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill and you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. -- all I am offering is the truth, nothing more."
what about the Dems?
and who will it be most difficult for Dr. Paul to take down in the general?
Democrats
1st Obama
2nd Edwards
3rd Clinton
As far as who would be the most difficult for Dr Paul to take down, NONE of the Democrats.
So far the biggest discrepancy among us
is how McCain fares.
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
lol those washpost numbers
lol those washpost numbers are FUNNY! they should all be fired for sucking. If i were this bad at predicting solutions/problems at my job id be HISTORY!
1 huck
2 paul
3 romney
4 mccain
5 thompson
6 giuliani
NH
1. romney
2. paul
3. mccain
4. giuliani
5. huckabee
6. thompson