Why is Iowa so important? the answer is SC
Submitted by free voice on Thu, 12/22/2011 - 00:44By the time Iowans vote, I expect Dr. Paul's numbers in NH will be 22-25%, with Romney 30-33% that's an 8% lead for Romney in NH on Jan 3rd.
Depending on the outcome of Iowa, these numbers can change as follows.
Scenario #1
Iowa results
Ron Paul: 30-35%
Romney : 17-22%
Perry: 12-16%
Gingrich: 12-16%
Ron Paul wins with a landslide, close to 10% lead. No strong 2nd or 3rd place.
This will have a major effect of NH.
1. Gingrich's campaign will suffer the most. he will drop to 4th, or 5th in NH at around 10%
2. Huntsman will benefit from not clear second in Iowa. He has been counting on NH to get his campaign a boost. He will gain lots of votes from Romney and some from Gingrich.
3. Perry will gain some attraction if he come in 3rd. He will get a lot of votes from Gingrich and Romney.
4. Romney will lose momentum if he comes in far second in Iowa. He will lose significantly against Huntsman and Perry.
5. Paul: with a landslide in Iowa, he will get major momentum and credibility in NH.
As a result of this. Here is the expected voting results in NH based on this scenario.
Paul: 27-30%
Romney: 26-29%
Huntsman: 17-20%
Gingrich: 10-13%
Perry: 10-13%
SC:
Gingrich will collaps, Romeny will not be "The" front runner anymore. Paul will be "a" front runner. Perry will bring his money, this will be his last chance.
----------------------------------------
Scenario #2
Iowa results
Ron Paul: 24-29%
Romney : 21-25%
Gingrich: 16-20%
Perry: 12-16%
Ron Paul barely wins. Romney Strong 2nd and Gingrich close 3rd place.
This will have a less effect of NH.
1. Gingrich's campaign will suffer less.
2. Huntsman will have hard time gaining votes from Romney and Gingrich.
3. Perry will bypass NH and focus on SC. He might get some votes from Gingrich.
4. Romney will keep momentum.
5. Paul: He will get some momentum and credibility in NH.
As a result of this. Here is the expected voting results in NH based on this scenario.
Romney: 30-33%
Paul: 25-28%
Huntsman: 15-17%
Gingrich: 15-17%
Perry: 7-10%
SC:
Gingrich will collaps, Romeny will be "The" front runner. Paul will need to push hard to get the conservative vote. Perry will bring his money, this will be his last chance.
-------------------------------
Scenario #3
Iowa results
Ron Paul: 24-29%
Gingrich: 21-25%
Romney: 16-20%
Perry: 12-16%
Ron Paul barely wins. Gingrich Strong 2nd and Romney close 3rd place. (fixed)
This will have a less effect of NH.
1. Gingrich's campaign will gain momentum.
2. Huntsman will have gain votes against Romney.
3. Perry will attack Ron Paul and Gingrich in NH. He might get some votes from Gingrich.
4. Romney will lose momentum.
5. Paul: He will get some of Romney's support.
As a result of this. Here is the expected voting results in NH based on this scenario.
Romney: 22-25%
Paul: 22-25%
Gingrich: 22-25%
Huntsman: 15-17%
Perry: 7-10%
SC:
Gingrich will keep his strong lead, Romeny & Paul & Perry will fight for 2-4 place.
Is the above the result of
Is the above the result of research or just an off the cuff prediction? If the result of research please share it. Its my memory that while a win in Iowa does help in the rest of the country NH tends to pick a different winner than IA. Can you tell me the last time IA and NH had the same winner on the GOP side? SC, on the other hand, is greatly influenced by the NH result. If Romney can't win in NH he won't win the nomination. Scenario #1 isn't likely I've seen no evidence that Paul's support is growing that fast or that Perry is going to catch Gingrich. Although #2 is the most likely of your 3 Iowa results I doubt that would help Huntsman and Paul as much as you think it would. Romney is currently up by 13 in NH over Gingrich, Paul by 17 Huntsman by 22. Scenario #3 supposes a collapses in IA by Romney at least at this point there is no evidence that is going to happen. You are also not taking into account the constant drumbeat of negative stories on the Paul campaign. MSM and the GOP establishment will accuse Paul of everything imaginable if he wins IA over time this will have an affect on the electorate. Many Republicans question Paul's electability, the attacks are going to reinforce that question.
here is my how I see this
1. the latest polls from NH shows Romney at 33%, Paul at 21% (12% gap). I am expecting these numbers to change slightly by Jan 3rd and the gap shrinks to about 8%.
2. only my #1 scenario predicts RP win in NH. (#2 predicts a very close Paul, Romney finish, #3 predicts Romney with a big win)
3. in 2008, while Huckabee was a clear front runner in Iowa, he was a distant 4th or 5th in NH. He wasn't able to attract voters in NH. (that's not the case now with RP. He is second)
4. Romney was a front runner in NH since October until December when McCain caught up with him. His numbers didn't change much after Iowa. But McCain kept the momentum for a win in NH. ( Romney's numbers havn't changed much in NH for the past 2 months, while Dr. Paul's numbers have doubled and he has the momentum on his side).
This is based on my own research from data available on realclearpolitics.com
My biggest fear, really, is
My biggest fear, really, is that a landslide win is very unlikely after all the attacks that have happened so far, and will likely continue to happen all the way to January 3rd.
Don't get me wrong, I hope a landslide happens, but I also wouldn't be surprised that romney and dr. paul are neck-in-neck, and maybe even romney wins. Remember, Romney is being played positively on the tape real over and over in the mainstream media while Ron is getting hammered non-stop at no cost to Romney's coffers.
I could be wrong. Maybe the people will totally coalesce around Dr. Paul as a result of the attacks. Without data though, there's really no way to know for sure. I suspect it will hurt Dr. Paul, not help. I know that attacks work, so these likely will too.
I just don't give non-Ron Paul supporters much credit for seeing the attacks for what they really are. They voted for Bush after all in 2004 - and that time, they weren't duped. They actually agreed to all of the campaign points despite how evil they were. I wish I had evidence to suggest that America, in the majority, is changing.
Recheck this sentence
Scenario #3
Iowa results
Ron Paul: 24-29%
Gingrich: 21-25%
Romney: 16-20%
Perry: 12-16%
Ron Paul barely wins. Romney Strong 2nd and Gingrich close 3rd place.
Did you flip romney numbers with gingrich numbers?
Fixed!! Thanks
Fixed!! Thanks
a landslide in Iowa, will
a landslide in Iowa, will force the msm to talk about the win.
If it is a small win, the msm will say, most of paul's vote came from indies and dems. therefore his win does not mean anything for the republicans.