Why not more effort winning Florida?
Submitted by Tanzenkran on Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:12in
IA,NH,SC all put together only have 19 delegate votes. Florida which has 27 delegate votes is a winner take all state. If Paul gets 30% of 19 he may have 5 delegates. Then comes Florida where realistically one of the other candidates could get all 27 votes with just a plurality of votes.
I admit I am not an expert but what is the political logic of our spending so much money for so little real reward (delegate votes).
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Fla loses 1/2 their delegates
Nevada is right after that, and it's a caucus. Ron is concentrating more on caucus states...if he does well in those and CA and TX, look out! That will negate any big Super Tuesday win by someone else!
Delegate numbers -
Iowa caucus 28
New Hampshire primary 12
South Carolina primary 25
Florida primary 50
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_p...
Those three states have more delegates available than Florida - and that said, things are looking 100% better in Florida than last time. Local news shows are talking about him, a local talk show host has endorsed him, Super Brochures will be mailed, doors will be knocked on and calls will be made. With the momentum from the the early states, I'm confident Ron Paul will make it very interesting for the establishment in Florida.
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Interesting
I thought the delegate numbers would just be electoral college numbers. I should have done more research before posting. I live in Oklahoma and according to the wiki article we will have 43 delegates here. Golly that is almost as much as Florida's 50. If Paul does well in IA,NH,and SC it will counter any problems in Florida. I feel more optimistic now.
[EDIT] Fight in IA makes FL easier
[Just found out that 27 is the penalized delegate count]
Unless I'm mistaken, the penalty for Florida moving up it's primary is that the RNC says they will make their delegate count worth only half so actually it's worth less than IA, NH, & SC combined (unless 27 is the after penalty delegate count).http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/cont...
I do agree we have to fight in every state, but momentum built in the first three will make the effort in bigger states like Florida that much easier.
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If Ron doesn't win Florida
If Ron doesn't win Florida then the MSM will use this to say Ron can't win cause of the del. count being higher for whoever wins Florida...
We need to get all the names and stuff for all the Registered Reps. in Florida and send them the Ron paul mailers and hit them hard with the phone from home...! We can help Ron win Florida with our efforts and Ron's efforts in winning in Iowa and NH...! :-)
Lets get it done people...!
New Hampshire is critical. If
New Hampshire is critical. If we can we win Iowa AND new Hampshire, there is about 99.99% chance Ron paul just wins outright.
If we lose by 1-9 points in New Hampshire after several people drop out, then the decision needs to be made to invest a lot more time into the coming states.
However, if we lose by 10 or more points, the race is probably over. I am not saying this to be negative, but it will be tough if Romney wins by 25 points (assume Gingrich is gone for such a thing to happen, which I have to say, is LIKELY).
New Hampshire is the real key. Florida is kind of irrelevant right now - not being it's unimportant... but because winning New Hampshire or at least coming in a very close second is really important for our continued success.
I disagree...
It's only critical that he come in 2nd or 3rd in NH - Romney is the favorite, and Newt can't be elected in at least 3 states now. That certainly gives plenty of time to expose people to his message.
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Let's say that I hope you're
Let's say that I hope you're right, but I don't think you are. The media is going to have a field day with New Hampshire.
Media is good :)
Any media for Ron Paul is good :)
Cheers!
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B/C Florida is Fascist Ground Zero
Seriously, 5% in 2008 was all you need to know. This is not a battle you can win so you don't put much, if anything, into it.
Let the wins in the early states create the momentum coming into the next round of primaries. Florida is a lost cause for Dr. Paul at this point.
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Not necessarily. Remember,
Not necessarily. Remember, things have changed a lot in Florida in just a few years. We've been the hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis and unemployment is ugly. I wouldn't just give up hope.
You might ..
..be right on one point because I've seen it face to face. But the good news is: a lot of folks down there don't like Obama and the way he handles things, and mind you, these folks are not your everyday folks - they have money and influence in the area whom I've had politically exchanged views with. So, there.
I'll be glad to spend..
.. $250 flying down to FL to cast my vote for RP (When I got there for the first time, I switched my driver license to FL and registered as a Republican.) I'm here in NY just on a long job assignment.
We need to fight for Every State!
Minnesota has 40 Delegates more then Iowa or New Hampshire... We almost won last time but due to the Old Republican guard they put up a fence... They are gone now and we will continue to fight.
What are we doing we are helping to call into New Hampshire!
Have you folks signed up yet to call from Home? We need a lot of calls folks.
Keep up the fight!
Well, you are right about the
Well, you are right about the number of delegates. However, I was under the impression that all early states were proportionate. Nevertheless, the strategy for spending time and money in states where the delegates are small reward is to gain credibility. Iowa and New Hampshire serve to validate Dr. Paul, who we all know has been maligned as a fringe candidate who cannot win. There are potentially thousands of supporters who will vote for Dr. Paul if they believe he can win. We all talk to some of them every day. You can already see Ron has moved up in polls in SC and FL in the last couple of weeks, since he became a real contender in Iowa and to a lesser extent in New Hampshire. Its kind of like buying gold. Are you really going to worry that you paid $100 too much if the price goes to $5000. I think not.
winner take all
I heard this morning on the radio that the winner-take-all rule in FL might be subject to a legitimate legal challenge. Hopefully someone with more info can fill us in on this issue.
To win in Florida will be
To win in Florida will be very hard but a bad showing like in 2008 will be played up by the media and will impact future states including Nevada. Florida is a closed primary state so you need to register republican by Tuesday January 3rd. The campaign should put out an automated call to all independents asking them to register republican ASAP. Unfortunately thae campaign is skipping over Florida almost completely.
Voter registration form
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/pdf/webappform.pdf
Bump -- good questions all...
bump
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Any DP patriots from Florida?
Please tells us what you and others are doing...
What help do you need?
Treg
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Why hasn't the campaign had
Why hasn't the campaign had Dr. Paul speak more recently at FSU or UF, or UCF is beyond me!
UCF
I am a UCF Econ student and we love Austrian Economics here in Central Florida. A surprising amount of students aren't brain dead Keynsian zombies. I/We would be so stoked to hear that he was coming to speak at UCF.
RP spoke at the Florida Liberty Summit
I know the Meetup groups in Florida are working hard to get information out. This is basically the last few days to register republican to vote in closed FL primary. Soon as Ron Paul wins IA, NH, SC, we can start phone banking in FL
http://www.voterfocus.com/hosting/fsase/index.php?id=9&spani...
Deadline Information
The registration books will be closed on the 29th day before each election and will remain closed until after that election. You must be registered for at least 29 days before you can vote in an election. If this is a "new registration", the date a signed voter registration application is postmarked or hand delivered to your county supervisor of elections office will be your registration date. If your signed application is complete and you are qualified as a voter, a registration identification card will be mailed to you.
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