33 votes

Latest VERY interesting prediction from Iowa maven Steve Deace (RP 28%)

Steve Deace is a very influential radio host in Iowa, and a veteran poll watcher. He accurately predicted the top five in August's straw poll.

Two of his tweets from today:

"Prediction: if Caucuses were today: Paul 28%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 17%, Santorum 13%, Perry 13%, Bachmann 9%."

AND

"Prediction: Ron Paul will challenge the 40,000+ Iowa Caucus votes that Mike Huckabee got in 2008."

Note: I place as much, if not more, weight on these predictions than I do current polls.



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Director ADMITS 1/3 of votes NOT being polled

More like 42%

New caucus delegates are "difficult to track down"?! and therefore are NOT showing up in Iowa polls.

Basically, 40,000 new/Paul delegates are NOT being polled.

estanislao

Did Deace wind up endorsing

Did Deace wind up endorsing anyone? I remember Tom Woods was trying to get him to endorse Paul, but heard not long after that Deace had Bachmann on his radio show and let her breath fire on Paul from all directions

Closest he's come to endorsing...

...has been recent comments hinting that it would be Bachmann if she was more viable.

these two predictions can't

these two predictions can't be true at the same time.
If RP gets 28%, he can't get over 40,000 votes unless the total votes casts are over 145,000 people. That is way too high. in 2008 the total vote count was 120,000. Most people predict this year to be around 100,000.

If Paul can get over 40,000 votes with 120,000 votes, that will give him 33% of the vote.
I think Ron Paul will get about 32,000 votes which will be around 29% (out of 110,000 total vote)

We'll see..

My prediction was Ron getting 35% of the vote with Gingrich in a distant second a month ago.. Since then time has changed and Gingrich looks touch and go to secure a top 3 finish. This will destroy his electability when we get going. Especially if he fails to get a top 2 in NH.

BTW, more people might turn out than 2008, because of all the independents and democrats Ron has attracted to the campaign.

If this prediction holds...

...then I'd assume Bachmann would immediately announce she's out.

Question: In this scenario, would Santorum and/or Perry also bow out?

Perry has enough bacon

to make it through the winter.

He'll be waiting to see how many Santorum/Bachmann votes he can pick up when they exit.

After Iowa, Perry's going straight to SC

So, even if he does bad in New Hampshire too, he's still running.

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Santorum said

if he came in Last, he would bow out.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign: that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. ~J. Swift

No

After N.H. they would really consider the suicide pill... Not until after N.H. results though.

Santorum will be a strap hanger like Huckleberry was in 2008.

I bet Santorum will stay in as long as he can, to improve his personal economic status like Huckleberry did. The only reason Huckleberry did not run for Prez this time was because he did not want to take the temporary financial hit. Huckleberry is now making more money than at any time in his life and he does not want to upset that. I do think Perry will try to hang through South Carolina. This will be a horse race to the Convention. I guess the question will be, does Newt have enough money to last the duration? I think Ron can finish a very strong 2nd in New Hampshire!

Santorum is no Huckabee

In '08, Huckabee won Iowa, and finished 3rd in NH (11%) and a strong 2nd in SC (30%).

Santorum might stay in past Iowa, but he'd be wasting his time and money (unless he thinks it's an investment toward a book deal or Fox gig, etc.)

Oh, and I think a strong 2nd is a given for Ron in NH...I think he can WIN there!