Do We Have Firm Numbers
Submitted by Number19 on Wed, 01/02/2008 - 23:34
Getting away from percentages, do the people on the ground have any firm reasons to believe, by interacting with Iowans, that we have 25,000 people who will caucus for Paul. If not 25,000, what firm number do we have? Based on a guess that total caucus members will number about 90,000, 25,000 RP supporters would give us a win or a very strong 2nd,
Are there any firm reports to our strength?
I may be wrong, but I believe the MeetUp Members only number about 1,000.What else do we have at this stage?
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Some speculation....
i haven't heard any firm numbers, but with 1,500 precincts, we only need an average of 10 in each to make a strong showing. I was reading a thread earlier this evening where a canvasser reported having as many as 30 supporters or 'strongly considering' individuals in the precincts he was working. even if only half of these pan out, that would be impressive. 15 x 1,500 = 22,500.
I've heard a normal "voter
I've heard a normal "voter to donor" ratio for Republicans is like 22 voters for every one financial contributor.
I figure Ron Paul's support in Iowa is probably going to be more enthusiastic and thus he might get something closer to 13 or 15 voters for each single donor.
Based on 13:1 and based on 1,270 reported RP donors in Iowa, I'm guessing he will turn out between 15k and 17k votes.
In that case it seems we will most likely be very competitive for 3rd place...
Depending on overall turnout, this could be better or worse than 3rd, but that's my guess about how many votes he'll get.
SIGN UP NOW for the RON PAUL THANKSGIVING!
Nationwide Grassroots Food Drive!
http://ronpaulthanksgiving.com
Sign up and INVITE ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS. Get your meetup groups involved.
i think i heard...
...there are three in my precinct, counting me.
but i am still awaiting the email with the full list of people. i hope its a lot more.
ron paul 2008
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if you build it he will come..........Ron Paul 2012.
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Its strangely insane
that a this late in the game you are still waiting for a list... take measures into your own hands, get one ASAP. Is this HQ's fault? Drew's fault? What gives?
I would love to know...
but that's ammunition the other campaigns would love to have even more. I doubt anyone with comprehensive knowledge of the ground situation would post it on the eve of the caucus.