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What's your prediction for the Iowa Caucus???
Submitted by matthew13l on Thu, 01/03/2008 - 01:25
I'll take a crack at it... Feel free to suggest adjustments: 27% Huckabee » |
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My prediction
The 18 to 24 year old vote will be split betwix Ron Paul and Obama. Half of that age group will vote overwhelming all other age groups.
Ron Paul 45%
Huckster 20%
Romney 19%
McCain 11%
Julie Annie 4%
I predict
a 3-way tie at the top featuring RP, Huck & Willard Mitt Romney.
There will be 3 big stories in the old media; The RP Revolution, What's up with these polls? and What happened to McCain?
By Jan 7th all the old media will be yabbering about is a win for McCain in NH and,again, the RP Revolution in the Liberty State. Look for lots of national exposure for the Free State Project.
h-daddy
Hunter & Keyes *combined*
*Might* add up to 1%. I'm hoping Dr. Paul gets first in a surprise, but I suspect Mitt bought it, perhaps from my FL Straw Poll experience. I think we'll take at least third place. I'm still thinking on our percentages...
JMR
Let's be conservative!
Hardly a poll has shown Dr. Paul garnering 10% of the vote. We may be under-represented in polls, but not by the margins some are predicting. If 100,000 Republican Iowans show up, Dr. Paul could earn about 10% if ALL of our friends make it and others stay home. Anything more is gravy.
I'd be content with a 4th place showing ahead of Fred and Rudy.
If we set an achievable goal and attain it, well done.
If we set an attainable goal and surpass it, even better.
If we set an unattainable goal, that's pre-meditated disappointment.
people whine & bellyache
for 4 years [more like 50 years] & now you have a chance for real change...don't blow it Iowa...winner..Ron Paul..30%
randy n.
HQ needs to get ready.
Paul 30%
Romney 24%
Huckabee 18%
Mcain 11%
Thompson 8%
Julie 7%
Hunter 2%
That is an oxymoron.
That is an oxymoron.
Politico just did a piece
saying Thompson may drop out.
I just don't understand the Huckabee thing. I really don't. He is scrambling for money, and it doesn't look like he will have enough to make it to February.
On the news last night, someone said that HE is the UNDERDOG and that a win in Iowa will be what brings in the cash.
Hope I'm wrong
But Iowa doesn't have a history of supporting strong conservatives like Paul:
1)Huckabee 30%
2)Romney 27%
3)McCain 13%
4)Thompson 12%
5)Paul 11%
6)Rudy 6%
7)Hunter 1%
I put Paul 4th ahead of Thompson
I don't think RP has made his case to pro-war males that they should vote for him ANYWAY if they do not agree with him on foreign policy.
That and the new McCain commercial which shows that McCain does have much more foreign policy experience than the Huckster and Romney, could put McCain in 3rd place.
If this happens, I suggest the RP campaign listen to me finally:
McCain can be destroyed on the Internet Regulation issue.
Otherwise McCain beats Ron Paul in every state (except Wyoming).
Reality Check.
Here is what I predict for the Iowa results:
24% PAUL
22% ROMNEY
21% HUCKABEE
14% MCCAIN
9% THOMPSON
9% GIULIANI
1% HUNTER
BUT, what is more important is what will then happen in NH just 5 days later. Assuming both Thompson & Hunter pull out after Iowa, here are the results I predict:
30% PAUL
23% ROMNEY
21% MCCAIN
14% GIULIANI
12% HUCKABEE
After this, it gets interesting for MI, NV, & SC - all states that RP can continue to do very well in. I believe after these states, Romney will appear to be the only serious viable competition for Paul.
The next big question then becomes whether Giuliani, Huck, & McCain can gain any real support in the 3 above mentioned states, or FL, to have any percieved momentum or viability going into Feb 5th. I think Giuliani will have just enough, with Huck & McCain slipping just too far behind.
I think they will all stick around for Feb 5th, though Huck & McCain will both perform poorly & withdrawl shortly after. I think Giuliani will perform well in certain states, however Romney will be percieved as more viable and will gain the majority of the support from the NeoCon Repubs that Dr. Paul does not convert.
So in the end it will pretty much be Paul & Romney with the majority of delegates to the national convention.
And unfortunately, here's where there comes the reality check, and a heartbreaking loss....for Romney.
Better get off the tracks 'cause the train is coming through. Next stop: the White House baby!
(Hey, I can have hope can't I?)
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"We have it in our power to begin the world over again."
-Thomas Paine
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again."
-Thomas Paine
All I have to say is...
The longer the field stays full, the longer the neocon vote remains diluted.
I hope you're right about all those guys staying in through Feb 5. Makes Dr. Paul's life a whole heck of a lot easier!
Ron Paul FTW
27% Paul
25% Romney
23% Huckabee
11% Giuliani
9% McCain
4% Thompson
1% Hunter
Liberty, once it takes root, is a plant of rapid growth.
For an informed citizenry, individuals must discard the television set in favor of the acquisition of information via either books and/or the internet. An uneducated populous will remain in ignorance and thus continue to suffer the sharp ax of tyranny.
hmmmmmm.......
Romney -30
Huckabee - 27
McCain - 20
Thompson - 18
Guliani - 15
Hunter - 5
Keyes - 3
And no questions asked either.
Those dead people tend to vote in droves! You'd think their stench would bother the other caucus goers.
If the dead dont vote, and Ron doesn't get screwed I'd see it more like this:
Romney 24%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 18%
McCain 13%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter > 1%
Keyes< 1%
Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice.
My Iowa Prediction
Iowa GOP Primary (01/03/08) Prediction:
Romney - 28%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 21%
McCain - 12%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 1%
Paul places 3rd in Iowa.
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http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/6240/ronpaulsoappp7.jpg
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http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/6240/ronpaulsoappp7.jpg
RP is going to win!
Does the stats matter after you hear that news? Yeah, you are right, it does not.
Hate povery, not the poor - Gandhi
Hate povery, not the poor - Gandhi
The revoulution
GO RON GO The Revolution (1776) was fought by 33% for 33% against 33% didn't care. RP wins Iowa with 33% who cares what the rest of the neocons get
GO RON GO
Ron will...
...definitely get 3rd or better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
fight4liberty
Prognosticating.
37% Huck
19% Paul
18% Romney
9% Thompson
8% McCain
6% Rudy
3% Hunter
"As long as our gonvernment is administered for the good of the people, and is regulated by their will; as long as it secures to us the rights of persons and of property, liberty of conscience and of the press, it will be worth defending." Brother Andrew Jackson
My estimate....
Romnoid - 25% (Gave out free Mormon longjohns to voters)
Huckster - 23% (Perhaps some "Christians" waking up to reality?)
The Honorable Dr. Ron Paul - 20% (This will WAKE UP the DEAD!)
MyCane - 16% ( Alive but barely kicking)
Thompson - 8% ( Stay tuned for withdrawl announcement)
Ghouliani - 5% ( The Illuminati's boy not the favorite of Iowans)
Hunter - 3% ( Duncan do-nots!)
What do we get if we win? A blender?
24% Huckabee
24% Romney
23% Paul
11% McCain
9% Thompson
6% Giuliani
3% Hunter
"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams
"The use of 'Conspiracy Theorist' or 'Truther' as a derogatory -- as an epithet almost -- is something the propagandists have perfected over the decades, and it's a useful tool for eliminating articulate dissent."
I think Ron Paul will win 2nd Place!
Romney 25%
Paul 23%
Huckabee 17%
McCain 15%
Thompson 10%
Guiliani 8%
Colbert 2%
The American Revolution 2.0 will not be televised... It will be downloaded!!!
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"The greatest mystery of all is truth." - Me, 2009
If the people voted strictly
If the people voted strictly according to integrity, it would be:
2327% Paul
-45% Hunter
-198% Thompson
-245% Huckabee
-311% McCain
-613% Romney
-1497% Giuliani
Totals may not add up to 100% due to the nausea induced by having to mentally estimate the integrity of candidates other than Ron Paul.
LOL
That was funny....
Also funny is that Rude Rudy is no where on the newscasts these days. In the beginning, they acted like he was a shoe in for the nomination.
I saw someone post ROMNIAC as another funny name for Mitt.
Hmmm.... I'm gonna have to
Hmmm.... I'm gonna have to challenge you on your 1497% integrity-rating for giuliani.
Nice post otherwise ;-)
That was NEGATIVE 1497%!
That was NEGATIVE 1497%! Realistically, I should probably have gone into negative five digits for Giuliani.
Ron Paul all the way baby!
1. Paul 28%
2. Huckabee 17%
3. Romney 15%
4. McCain 9%
5. Thompson 4%
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If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin. Samuel Adams
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End The Fat
70 pounds lost and counting! Get in shape for the revolution!
Get Prepared!
My prediction
Huckabee 25%
Paul 20%
Romney 19%
McCain 15%
Gholiani 7%
Thompson 5%
Hunter 3%
nazo311's prediction
I'm jumping on with nazo311's numbers. McCain might beat Romney though.
I think Iowa will be thinning down the crowd a little. Make some room in that Faux News "forum".
My Prediction (Using an Excel Formula)
1. Romney 37%
2. Huckabee 27%
3. Paul 11%
4. McCain 10%
5. Thompson 7%
6. Giuliani 7%
7. Hunter 1%