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New Public Policy Polling 01/02/12 - Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%

Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%

Remember the poll is mostly OLDER Republicans.

Democrat 6%
Republican 76%
Independent/Other 18%

62% of people polled were over 46 years old.

Paul in 5th with seniors at 11%. But with under 45: Paul 30, Santorum 19, Romney 14:

We NEED the young people .....

Link:

http://www.publicpolicypo...

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Paul is surging, Romney collapsing, Media ignoring...

If you look at the Des Moines Register and PPP daily numbers, you get:

Mitt Romney:

Dec. 28: 26%
Dec. 29: 24%
Dec. 30: 23%
Dec. 31: 21%
Jan. 1: 18%

Ron Paul:

Dec. 30: 16%
Dec. 31: 19%
Jan. 1: 21%

So, if you combine the two polls, Romney is sliding down every day since Wednesday, and Paul is rising after Friday.

Sources:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/wp-content/uploads/201...

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/153706999538909184

Watch!

Get the word out on the outright lies told by MSNBC!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDsdZMk4m5Q

The negative media lies

are certainly causing a drop in poll numbers.
I have a bad feeling about this.
Ron must WIN not second or third.
Romney wins Iowa and NH, the election is over.
The media had perfect timing in its assault.

Ron Paul Can win

The New Hampshire polls are somewhat misleading. I don't believe the Public Policy Polling is intended to make them misleading but some of the data if not properly assessed could demonstrate a false reality. Public Policy Polling I believe is a very ethical organization because they demonstrate many different factors correlating to the ideology of the voter being questioned.
If you take a look at the New Hampshire Polls Ron Paul is at a steady second with 21% of the vote. Mitt Romney looks like a way more popular candidate with 36% of the overall vote. A major theme I have noticed throughout the majority of polls whether Iowa or New Hampshire is that Ron Paul seems to possess anywhere from 42-46% of votes from voters between the age of 18-44 years old. After that besides veterans Paul starts to slump. So Ron Paul's actual support in New Hampshire can only be determined by how many registered Republicans are between the ages of 18-44 years old.

We can attribute the same method to the Iowa Polls and Ron Paul's percentage is directly correlated to the number of 18-44 year old. We can see in almost every poll to be about or around 42-46%. Voters 18-44 years old gives him a distinct advantage. Remember this is primarily to demonstrate the strong support not being shown in the polls. The actual Caucus might demonstrate Ron Paul has 65-75% of voters 18-44 years old.

cell phone vs landline phones

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the problem with these polls is they call landline phone numbers. The bulk of Ron Paul's support only has a cell phone. Wouldn't this mean that Ron Paul could be set for a landslide victory?

There are over 30,000 new people registered as GOP in Iowa

While I have been telling people on the DP that Santorum is it when he was dead last and people laughed.

I predict this, Santorum will not win because there are 30,000 new first time registered Republicans in Iowa. I predict at least Ron Paul gets a slight majority of these voters.

They are Ron Paul recruits over the last 3 years.

They are Tea Party

They are Democrats that want to make up for the Obama mistake

And finally they are the ever growing amount of independents.

The polls only account for a small amount of these 1st time GOP voters because they are "very hard to find" according to a pollster I saw on one of the MSM new networks

Fantastic! do you have a

Fantastic! do you have a link?

Also add the people who register right at the caucus, since there is no deadline for registration/party change.

“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” William Pitt

we will

See tomorrow the results, I don't believe these polls at all.

fivethirtyeight.com prediction for Romney win back down to 40%

It was as high as 60% over the weekend. The addition of 3 new January polls kicked it back down to Romney 40% chance of winning, Dr. Paul, 36%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/...

The Santorum surge appears to be real. Bachmann tanking big time, Gingrich in 4th place.

My question is, how much of the Santorum surge support will be translatable to a caucus-type of primary. When they do polls, people like to get in on the momentum, but I doubt that Santorum has so many supporters with chops ready to make speeches for him at the caucuses.

Given the ferocity of the attacks on Dr. Paul over the last week, it seems his poll nos are holding up remarkably well.

even if the Santorum surge is real

and it translates into some real numbers tomorrow, isn't that ultimately good for us? I don't think he can carry on much farther than Iowa.

AFAIC, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, those

AFAIC, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, those are all good for Ron right now. It will springboard him to wider support and blunt some of the relentless attacks.

It would make more sense for

It would make more sense for Santorum to pull votes from Romney, not Paul.

(I'm still astonished that ANYONE would consider Santorum as a viable candidate. The guy is an idiot NeoCon drone!)

Bye Bye Bachmann!

I have really come to hate Michelle Bachmann. I can't wait until Iowans show her the door. I look forward to the day where I don't have to hear her dirty little lies anymore.

And so goes the great leader

of the much-vaunted Tea Party Caucus.

There is nothing strange about having a bar of soap in your right pocket, it's just what's happening.

I just imagined you saying that

as you looked into the sunset as War-Bachmann is in the last throes of her political career.

May the LORD bless you and keep you
May the LORD make His face shed light upon you and be gracious unto you
May the LORD lift up His face unto you and give you peace
Follow me on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/Burning_Sirius

I'm just

happy to not have to hear her nasally "twenty three foster children" line. If we have to endure any more of that I might have to eat a bullet.

amen!!!!

amen!!!!

“A nation can survive its

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.”-Marcus Tullius Cicero

Each candidate is 1 point ....

apart . Ha ! One thing for sure , the DC establishment and the Government controlled MSM will never ever have an outsider like a Ron Paul occupy the WH . Hate to say it , but this country is finished . There's only one way out of this mess and I think we all know what that is .

Did we give up?

When the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor! No... I will take second place especially if Santorum wins. We have lots of ammo for that chicken hawk.

No one has deputized America to play Wyatt Earp to the world.
-Pat Buchanan

Germans

?

“I have joined your revolution and I’m proud to be part of what you want to do.” - Ron Paul

it's a quote from Animal

it's a quote from Animal House lol

"If you see a man approaching you with the obvious intent of doing you good, run for your life" - Thoreau

Indies and Dems are 24% of the PPP sample

But does anyone know what they are basing that percentage on? I've been looking to see what percent of GOP caucus goers were I or D in '08 but can't find the stat. It would be useful to know if the PPP proportion might be underestimating how many independents and Democrats might come out.

P.S. This PDF has some interesting info. If I understand it correctly it says that Indies were 12% of '08 GOP caucusers. Which suggests that PPP is accounting for more Indies than last time.

civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS08_iowacaucus.pdf

Relevant quote:

"Sixty percent of the under-25s were “born again or evangelical Christians,”
precisely the same proportion as in the whole GOP caucus population. Nineteen
percent were Independents, compared to 12 percent of Republican caucus-goers
and 23 percent of all caucus-goers"

“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” William Pitt

Percentage of indies and Dems

I think I read on the PPP website that it's based on past participation rates plus an adjustment. I think in 2008 it was 18%, if I recall correctly, and this year they are expecting more, since there is no action in the Dem caucuses this time around.

Iowa

I have been doing extensive research with data from both this year, and 2008. The only reason Huckabee won was because most of the Independence and defected Republicans voted for Obama, leaving the Evangelical vote to actually matter, hence Huckabee winning.
Does anyone really have any idea what the Ground game for Ron Paul actually looks like in Iowa? Is anyone from Iowa who has seen first hand the influence that Dr. Paul has?

For what its worth....

When I attended the Perry, IA and Cass County events on 12/29, the most audience members appeared to be at least 45 years old.

In Cass County, many of the guys looked like they just came in off the farm and it was a packed house. They had to open an overflow room to accommodate everyone. On several occasions I looked around to gauge reactions to Ron's speech. At one point Ron was talking about Iranian nukes. This one old guy had a nasty look on his face, nut then nodded enthusiastically at the end of Ron's statement. Overall the reaction was very favorable.

I was at the Cass County event as well

and noticed the same thing (looked like the majority was 45-65).

It's amazing how fear and

It's amazing how fear and insecurity influence people's decisions. Fortunately there are some that think differently. My Dad (mid-60's) may vote for Dr. Paul.

Santorum!?!?!

I didn't believe the Des Moines Register poll, but I tend to trust PPP.

I just can't believe that Santorum has any support. It honestly scares me that any segment of the electorate supports this clown.