-11 votes

Intrade 01/03/12 Iowa: Romney: 52%; Paul: 25.3%; Santorum: 21.5%

Yesterday:
Romney 45-51%
Paul: 27-29%
Santorum: 22-25%

This morning:

Romney: 52%; Paul: 25.3%; Santorum: 21.5%

But 52% means they're giving Romney barely a 50/50 chance of winning first. And if he doesn't get first, they think Paul is more likely to win than is Santorum.

So, per Intrade,
most likely: Romney, Paul, Santorum

Also likely:
Paul, Romney, Santorum
OR
Romney, Santorum, Paul

In other words, in all likelihood, Romney will get 1st or 2nd, Santorum will get 2nd or 3rd, and Paul will get 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Less likely:

Paul, Santorum, Romney

Even less likely:
Santorum, Paul, Romney

First place:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Second place:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91108

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dailypaul crashed

I couldn't do any more updates but it was fluctuating a lot before finally settling on Romney and Santorum.

Right now they're giving Romney 35% and Santorum 59%.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 21:06: Romney: 38% Paul: 50% Santorum:16%

Still hangin'


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 20:49: Romney: 40% Paul: 42% Santorum:15%

THERE IT IS!!!

Okay, can't get too excited just yet, but we're definitely going in the right direction!!!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 20:43: Romney: 39% Paul: 37% Santorum:16%

Yee haw!

I'm watching them count slips of paper on C-Span. Looks like Romney's pile is the biggest at this precinct, but it's hard to tell for sure.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

37% and rising...

Intrade's abandoning Santorum and the bets are flowing towards Ron....

Cuimhnigh orm, a Dhia, le haghaidh maith.

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 20:28: Romney: 42% Paul: 35% Santorum:21%

Yes!!!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 20:20: Romney: 43% Paul: 33% Santorum:20%

Finally, some positive movement!

Paul jumps up to 33% from the high 20s, and Santorum drops back down to 20%. Romney stays in low 40s.

Keep watching!!!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 19:27: Romney: 42% Paul: 28% Santorum:30%

Paul was slightly ahead of Santorum a few minutes ago, but now is behind again. Meanwhile Romney is still no sure thing.

This thing will suddenly jump, no telling exactly when, however.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 18:50: Romney: 44% Paul: 28% Santorum:30%

This is hilarious... now they're all converging again.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 18:30: Romney: 44% Paul: 26% Santorum:30%

Holy shit... Santorum just took a big jump!


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Current numbers show

Paul 29.3 Romney 49.5 Santorum 25.9 These add up to over 100, how is that even possible?

The numbers aren't tied together

These are independent estimates, so they won't necessarily add up to 100%, and might add up to more than 100%. In theory they should add up to 100%, or just under to take into account the very low odds of the others, but in practice they could be more or less than 100%.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 18:00: Romney: 48% Paul: 29% Santorum:22%

Still no significant movement. They're clueless.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

01/03/11 Intrade Iowa 16:30: Romney: 45% Paul: 26% Santorum:24%

Even though Romney is favored, a high confidence that he will win is obviously not there. He has dropped from 56% to 45%.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

For second place:
Paul: 38%, Romney 31%, Santorum 30%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91108

A lot of distortion from hedging.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Paul back up to 29.4%. Romney

Paul back up to 29.4%. Romney under 50 again. This is very volatile.

I wouldn't put any stock in

I wouldn't put any stock in in-trade. It's interesting, but not very meaningful. Compared to the NYSE, it's got practically zero volume, and the NYSE has a horse-crap record of predicting anything. So...let's wait for the tally in Iowa, shall we?

"Alas! I believe in the virtue of birds. And it only takes a feather for me to die laughing."

It's fun!

Everyone knows it will be right in the end... the issue is how soon before the tally is announced will Intrade pick the eventual winner.

These are the guys who had Ron Paul at over 50% a couple of weeks ago.

I think it's a pretty good measure/mirror of what is actually known. It can only be so good because what is known is limited to poll results, anecdotal observations, and analysis.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Paul now favored for second

Earlier (see below), Romney was favored for 1st and second.

Now he's favored for first at 52% (Paul:25%, RS: 24%), but Paul is favored for second place with 37% (Romney: 32%, RS: 29%)

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91108

Of the 6 possible outcomes assuming these three are the top 3, this seems to be the favored order of likelihood:

  1. MR, RP, RS 19% (52% * 37%)
  2. MR, RS, RP 15%
  3. RP, MR, RS 8%
  4. RS, MR, RP 7%
  5. RP, RS, MR 7%
  6. RS, RP, MR 7%

That adds up to only 63%, so something is amiss, but I think the order is right.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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How I read Iowa Intrade

The polls are now indicating a close 3 way race between Romney, Paul and Santorum, with Santorum having some momentum but with Paul having much better organization on the ground at this point.

Most people are probably staying away from making a straight single bid on one candidate because there are way to many variables and unknowns. This is a very atypical day in terms of voting.

Paul is relying on a typically unreliable demographic for the bulk of his support(under 40). Making him a questionable investment. Now we know this group is typically unreliable because they are typically more indifferent to the status quo candidates. That is not the case today!

Santorum is relying on people to flock from Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann and join under him. If this happens he has a legit shot at winning. But Bachmann has a much stronger ground game and Perry has been advertising a ton. Making Santorum a questionable investment.

Romney is a safety choice. He is likely to get around 25,000 votes. He doesn't have much upside but he doesn't have a ton of risk either. If you bet Romney for first and hedge your bet with a Romney 2nd place bet(Romney is leading in betting for 2nd place as well), you have a decent chance at making money if he wins and if he comes in second you can still break even. The chances of Romney falling to third seem remote.

I know this post might get some thumbs down votes because it wasn't simply saying the voting is rigged and that Ron Paul will win. I do believe he has a very good shot at pulling out a victory tonight, I am just trying to give my opinion on what I think Intrade is telling us.

Yep, that's what I said an hour ago

At 13:11, below, I posted basically the same thing:

So Romney is favored for first and second, LOL.

How to interpret this?

That means a big win if you put $1000 on Romney for both 1st and 2nd, because that will pay for sure, unless Romney gets 3rd.

So the price for Romney 1st or 2nd is obviously inflated by those hedging their bets like this.

Great minds...


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Suspicious radical drop. Kind

Suspicious radical drop.

Kind of me reminds me of the put-options people were placing on AA before 9/11

Oh for crying out loud

This is the kind of post that turns people OFF of Ron Paul, and for good reason.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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So a bunch of well to do

So a bunch of well to do traders are hoping to make money. I hardly think that reflects the people of Iowa. Something tells me Iowans don't care what Intrade says

Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto. - T. Jefferson rЭVO˩ution

"Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.” - BASTIAT

Of course they don't care

Of course Iowans don't care what Intrade says - it's not like they look to Intrade to decide how to vote, LOL!

The point is, Intraders look at Iowans and try to predict how they will vote. These are not people who are betting on who they hope will win, but on who they think will win. Big difference.

And I don't think we're talking about big money. The volumes are too low.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Or maybe their doing it to

Or maybe their doing it to push political agendas. I want Romney to win so I'm going to buy up a lot and give the appearance that he's the favorite.

Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto. - T. Jefferson rЭVO˩ution

"Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.” - BASTIAT

Sort of like the FED.

Or the Wall St branches of the FED.

Really?

Do you believe anyone believes Intrade has that kind of influence at all, much less enough to put money in on it?

Let's just say that if anyone with money is that stupid, he won't be able to keep his money very long.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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obviously you believe it.

obviously you believe it. You're giving credence to this site even though it's merely a little gambling site with not real basis to judge anything on. I don't think they're worried about losing a little if they stand to gain a lot. The media keeps telling them Romney will win so that's they way they go. It reflect not on the real people.

Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto. - T. Jefferson rЭVO˩ution

"Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.” - BASTIAT

I believe what?

I believe that people willing to put their money on what the outcome will be is probably the best available predictor we have.

Doesn't mean it's perfect, of course.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

I believe people will put

I believe people will put thier money on something that will make them money. get in early watch it rise and bail before it collapses, just like our own overly inflated stock market

Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto. - T. Jefferson rЭVO˩ution

"Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.” - BASTIAT