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Ron Paul: New Hampshire Primary is “Wide Open”

By Catherine Hollander
National Journal
January 4, 2012

Texas Rep. Ron Paul came in third in Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, but it will be anyone's game in New Hampshire's primary next week, he says.

“The primary is wide open,” a tired-looking Paul said on CNN’s American Morning Wednesday. “It’s a 'live free or die' state. They are very freedom-oriented and... I’m confident we’ll do quite well.”

Continue: http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/paul-n...

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The 25% Solution: How Romney Plans to Finish By Florida

An eight-vote, 25% victory may look weak, but Mitt Romney’s narrow win in the Iowa caucuses Tuesday has his campaign charting a plan for ultimate victory by the time Florida Republicans hold their primary on Jan. 31. The strategy: use a dominating win in New Hampshire to cast weak victories in Iowa and South Carolina as a sign of Romney’s inevitable nomination.

The expectation of a Romney victory in New Hampshire makes an overwhelming showing in next Tuesday’s primary necessary. Romney’s campaign is dispatching their candidate to towns with typically high primary turnout in southern and central New Hampshire, like those in Hillsborough and Belknap Counties. At the same time Romney’s formidable New Hampshire operation is up with TV, radio and print ads, and is calling, e-mailing and snail-mailing likely primary voters.

Senator John McCain, who is campaigning for his 2008 primary rival, told voters in Peterborough, New Hampshire, on Wednesday that the goal was to “get this thing over with” by sending Romney to the Jan. 21 primary in South Carolina “with so much momentum that he can’t be stopped.” A 7 News/Suffolk University tracking poll Wednesday morning had Romney with 43% support in New Hampshire while his closest rival, Ron Paul, had 14%. That margin had widened in recent days, suggesting Romney’s headed in the right direction, but that he may need a blowout to beat expectations.

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/01/05/the-25-solution-how-rom...

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bigmikedude's picture

I don't know guys,

If we were polling 1st through most of Iowa, and still came in 3rd, and we are polling only 2nd in NH while significantly FAR below Romney, I honestly don't see us faring very well at all.

Especially if any RP supporters get lazy or complacent and don't go vote, as evidence shows, may have happened in Iowa preventing us from taking the win.

Top that off with the little magic black box voting machines counting the votes in New Hampshire that will likely be stealing 10 to 20% off the top of Paul's votes and giving them to Romney.

Add in the rumor that he is not even in NH to campaign until the end of the week while all the competition is.

If I was forced to make the call on the outcome, you don't want to hear the placement I'm expecting, but it is in the realm of a major punch to the gut and a brutal blow to our hopes and the future of the campaign.

On the other hand, If we didn't do so well in Iowa, and we somehow do very well in NH, and poorly in S.C, it may be time to seriously re-think the super brochures.

FIrst of all

there is no black box voting in NH. As evidenced in the last election there is a paper trail for every ballot. Secondly, we take the process seriously and do our best to make sure it is clean.

The RP campaign is in high gear in NH. The rally in Nashua when he arrives will be huge and will get a ton of press. The debate tomorrow is key. Dr. Paul will need to promote and defend his ideas clearly secure in the knowledge that they are the best ideas for the country. If he can do that Tuesday's results will be good. I think anything around 20% is the target.



I guess that is ok - BUT I would REALLY really like to see 30%.... I'll be working to get more votes for him the next few days... I don't see anyone who is "excited" about "their" candidate - Only the Ron Paul people are ... - I know several "independents" (that lean Dem) are going to vote for
Ron Paul. :) ... that's a good sign! Really Hoping for a large RP turn out and low turn out for the rest.... - Hope we will get some bad weather here. Ha!

"Many of us agree that you and I have no right to use coercion against people who don't owe us anything. The same prohibition applies to groups of people who constitute the government. The reason is simple: unjust acts do not become just when legalized. "

30% would be sensational

I am working the phones hard and promoting RP whenever and wherever. The key for Dr.Paul is definitely the independents.

Big event tonight where I teach featuring...Romney!! The film crews are just arriving and setting up. Wish it were Dr. Paul!!!!!


Live free or Mitt

I'm just saying.

"Keep your hands out of my pockets and stop telling me what to do!"

Why isn't Ron Paul campaigning in New Hampshire this week?

Why isn't Ron Paul campaigning in New Hampshire this week? This seems like a missed opportunity.

Ed Rombach

Ron needs to close the sale

When hitting the last part of speeches, he needs to close the sale. I've noticed that he doesn't do that. He finishes the speech, and when he should be strongly asking for votes, he says thank you and walks away. And, in interviews, say 'well' to himself if need be, but stop using it to begin speaking.

The thing about visualizing riding his bike through the White House on his way to work in the Oval office is a good one. LOL

RON PAUL 2012 * Restore America * Bring The Troops Home

Why not come out with a foreign policy plan??

Just like the economic one he laid out...
He should lay out clear guidelines, steps, bullet-points to what he intends to do vis-a-vis foreign policy. Just as he did with cutting spending!!

To handle the foreign policy issue in one sentence, or an answer that is addressing an accusation against him is just simply not good enough.
Everybody is attacking ron paul on foreign policy , because there is a lot of room for misunderstanding, misinformation, manipulation in his answers.

We should make it much harder!

Im sure when he starts talking practically what he would like to do as commander in chief, many of those accusations would be debunked.

Can anyone suggest this to people well-placed in his campaign??

Go Ron ! only hope for America!
Greetings from an American in Dubai, UAE

Clear up misconceptions

The good doctor should press the issue..
Non-Interventionism = Switzerland, Norway, Mexico
Isolationism = North Korea, Myanmar

Why is this so hard to understand?

"Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!"- Homer Simpson

i support this

a well written plan would be great for the campaign right now, i don;t understand what their strategy is.

Dr.Ron Paul's 2002 Predictions

Yes, this is one of the more

Yes, this is one of the more aggravating points for me. The campaign really did drop the ball on this one. They started out brilliantly with a nice ad on Paul's national defense record, but that fell off the map 3 months ago and they started drilling the "He Served" tv spot instead.

Yes, it is a powerful ad, but the charge being made is no longer that Paul is an unamerican isolationist (although some still make this claim, they are increasingly in the minority) it's that he's a dove, not a hawk. A Chamberlainite. That he's weak and he'll be pushed around by Russia, China, Iran, et al.

Unfortunately, I think it is too late to remedy this in NH. But there's still time to come out swinging with this in SC. As long as Paul can fend off any chance of a Huntsman surge, he will be poised for a top-2 finish in SC as well with this ad campaign in place.

But time is running out.

Never forget:

To disagree, one doesn't have to be disagreeable.

- Barry Goldwater

Ron Paul can and MUST win NH......

if he wants to get the Republican nomination.They say no Republican has ever won the nomination without winning Iowa and/or NH. Second place in NH is not good enough. Otherwise it is going to be a long drawn out battle, limping along to a brokered convention in Tampa. There would be a lot of back room dirty dealing and who knows how that will turn out. Yes, we will have a lot of delegates and have a lot of influence in reforming the Republican platform but without the majority of the delegates it will be very iffy securing the nomination.

How do I get a terrific tactic to the campaign?

Every time the comment is made "but he's so far outside of mainstream Republican thought", the response, by everyone in front of a mic should be, "You bet he is. Mainstream Republican thought, as well as mainstream Democrat thought, got us to where we are today. And you want more of the same?"

Live Free Or Die

Duplicate post about Huntsman HELP in NH

I need a good one liner for a sign for primary day in my town, I have good ones for the others, but need some good dirt on him appealing to ind voters.....thanks for the help!

free state project member

They say no Republican has

They say no Republican has ever won the nomination without winning Iowa and/or NH. Second place in nH is not good enough.

That's not necessarily true, for reasons I've already discussed at length in this thread:


I think you may have been confused about the precedent of winning both IA and NH, which has never been done before in the Republican field, although Romney seems poised to. But there is reason not to despair, since Romney's margin of victory is basically a statistical tie anyway.

Iowa traditionally has had a poor record of success in predicting the Republican nominee, getting it 50% right on the last 9 contested primaries. This doesn't sound too bad until you consider New Hampshire's larger sample size and better success rate: 78% accurate at picking the first place finisher as the eventual nominee.

No candidate, GOP or Democrat, has ever got the nod without coming in either first or second in New Hampshire.

I have always maintained that a victory in Iowa isn't necessary because of this. And while a lot of people love to say how much the process is different this time around, and that conventional strategies will be up-ended, the very worst forecast would be a nomination calendar that follows more Democratic patterns. And as I just pointed out, NH is relevant to both Democrats and Republicans and has been for over 60 years.

Paul absolutely must win second place, but first is nearly impossible at this point. If we do not adjust our expectations appropriately, then we risk the same disillusionment that happened last time around. Only this time, Paul's campaign depends on our enthusiasm more than ever to carry him to a brokered convention.

And yes, that brokered convention is still the number one contingency plan. We need to protect its viability at all costs.

Never forget:

To disagree, one doesn't have to be disagreeable.

- Barry Goldwater

To win New Hampshire,

you have to put in the work. Take it from somebody from Iowa. RP won in my precinct, and a lot of others where there was a die-hard supporter canvassing and making calls as much as they could. You still have a week, get out and canvass! Our success is directly related to how hard we work, because we won't be helped out by anybody else.

Wish I could go to New Hampshire like so many out-of-staters came here (a sincere thank you to all of you!).

Ron, Get Used to Seeing Yourself In the Oval Office


My following remarks are said PARTLY in jest, but not totally.

Ron, you want to win, right?

Good. Start improving your delivery more consistently. Start speaking more coherently and slowly. Hone your message more for a target audience, but don't change the message. For example, speak to members of the audience over 30 and ask them why you received HALF of the vote from individuals between 17 and 29 years of age during Iowa's caucuses. LET THEM PONDER THE ANSWER for a minute. Then, ask those individuals over 30 if they really believe that they'll escape the looming economic chaos as it's already knocking at their door. If necessary, succinctly provide some reasons why the won't. Smile. You've just won them over to your side. Next, don't pucker. Lastly, try to relax and get enough sleep.

Why do those youngsters between the ages 17 to 29 vote for you, Ron? STRESS this question and let older people in your audiences PONDER it for minute. As a starting point, maybe some individuals between the ages of 17 and 29 will post THEIR reasons for supporting you, Ron, in this thread. Then repackage those reasons and sell them to the age groups over 30. Come up for air occasionally....

We cherish you, Ron... Keep up the good fight. Get used to seeing yourself in the Oval Office.

Yeah, Ron. See yourself

Yeah, Ron. See yourself talking to Congress. See yourself talking to America on State of the Union. See yourself riding that bike all around the WH--maybe even THROUGH the WH. See a huge party in the gardens for Carol's Birthday with all your family there..Oh..and see yourself buying a new chair before you sit at that desk in the Oval Office. :)

Ron's right

From what I have heard from friends in New Hampshire, Ron Paul is right in saying it is wide open right now.

Grace be to you, and peace, from God our Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ.

In The LORD Jesus Christ;

"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17


There are a lot more young

There are a lot more young people in NH right now getting a lottt more heavily involved this week than they have, mostly inspired by Iowa. One kid I know is going to bring super brochures to other candidates' events to pass out.

my diy adventure blog: dickdoesit.blogpsot.com

"wide Open"

is NOT good thing after all the time/money/energy spent here over the last few months. We begin with the 8% from 2008 and where are we now? I have to wonder what the strategy is for NH.

Independent voters are the key to NH. I hear that guy who got these votes for McCain is working for Santorum.



If I remember right the "live free or die state" wasn't good to Paul four years ago...

Another term for preventive war is aggressive war- starting wars because someday somebody might do something to us. That is not part of the American tradition.
-Ron Paul

Vote fraud is endemic in NH.

Vote fraud is endemic in NH.

No, it wasn't!

...and I lost a fifth of expensive scotch on that bet! I was SURE Ron Paul would do well in the 'Live Free or Die' state, home of the Free State Project (whatever happened to that?).

'Cause there's a monster on the loose

NH was the very biggest

NH was the very biggest disappointment of all, closely followed by Nevada, and we SHOULD have won Louisiana. I do not know How we are going to stop vote fraud other than camp out at the FEC until they tell us how, or do something themselves. How can we even think of "promoting our democracy" anywhere else when We (the TRUE government) can not even see our votes counted..?

Sorry bout your luck...

that was an expensive bet to lose! Luckily I didn't make a wager or I would've felt the loss just as you did.

Another term for preventive war is aggressive war- starting wars because someday somebody might do something to us. That is not part of the American tradition.
-Ron Paul

The goal should 2nd

with plenty of space between Ron and 3rd place. Romney is only a target in the sense that the closer we make it, the weaker he will look as a candidate.

My brother-in-law is in New Hampshire right now for the campaign. He hasn't been able to tell me much (non-disclosure agreement), but He did say there are Romney signs all over the place. A few Ron Paul stuff here and there.

Flipping NH will probably be next to impossible in just 7 days, but it does seem like we have a stronghold on 2nd place. Huntsman seems to be the only other contender, but I imagine his horribly weak performance in Iowa will push some of his supporters to Romney.

Ron Paul Needs to Finish 2nd in NH

Ron Paul has spend alot of resources in New Hampshire.

While Romney is the odds on favorite to win the State, I am afraid that anything less than second place will be seen by the media and RP Supporters as a failure.

We must beat Santorium and Huntsman in the Live Free or Die State.


Ron will come in 3rd & be deemed "unelectable", and that will devastate the campaign, just as it has last night.

I don't believe that SANTORUM finished ahead of Ron Paul~~~there is NO WAY.

IF there had been no shenanigans, I would agree to go on, but not now, not with the IOWA GOP keeping the vote tallies in "specific" counties from the LOCAL TV PRESS & making them go to the Iowa GOP to get the information. That is a crock! So, I haven't much hope.....at all.

Based on this and since the campaign is refusing to admit the potential strong indications of "FRAUD" I won't be donating any more of our money to this. IF Dr. Paul comes out and starts "educating" the public about the fraud in the elections, then we will reconsider, but we've given thousands of dollars and we are really burnt now!

If there was election fraud, as i strongly suspect based on the evidence at hand, then, all our work, our countless hours of time, and all our donations were all to no avail, so what's the point unless Dr. Paul comes out about this important aspect of elections in America today. IT JUST ISN'T FAIR TO HIS SUPPORTERS....IF HE DOESN'T.