6 votes

CNN Exit Poll: Most Likely To Defeat Obama

Of Paul supporters: Most likely to defeat Obama
Paul 88%, Huntsman 5%, Romney 4%, Gingrich 1%, Santorum 1%, Perry -1%

Of Romney supporters: Most likely to defeat Obama
Romney 66%, Paul 13%, Huntsman 9%, Santorum 6%, Gingrich 3%, Perry 0%

Of Huntsman supporters: Most likely to defeat Obama
Huntsman 86%, Paul 9%, Romney 1%, Gingrich 1%, Perry -1%

statistical significance of anything from CNN is questionable



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My Thoughts

I'm pretty sure its the % of those who voted for that Candidate who think the candidate they voted for would beat Obama.. however it should be pointed out that Paul scored higher then all the others as well as he scored higher then anyone else that voted for someone else. I mean he came in 2nd to the candidate they voted for on who they thought could beat Obama.. would be best to add all the % together then / it to see who had the avg. % from all voters..

How about the link to the

How about the link to the poll or article?

I think you are reading that wrong.

Of those who said Paul was the most likely, he got 88%. That means 12% of those who said Paul was most likely, voted for someone else.

Same goes for the other candidates.

What you are NOT showing is what percentage of ALL voters said which candidates were most likely to defeat Obama.

I haven't seen the CNN numbers, only the FOX exit polling (likely the same numbers) and they are very similar. The numbers FOX reported show Romney was thought the most likely to defeat Obama. By a wide margin.

By no means did Paul win that battle tonight.

are you sure it's not

of Paul voters 88% said he was most likely
of Huntsman voters 9% said Paul most likely

if this is the case then these numbers are a good sign since Paul is #2 in all and Romneys percentage of his own voters is 66%

In short, it's backwards - of those who thought Paul was

most likely, 88% voted for him is the correct way to read those numbers.

No, see my link to the numbers below. Here's the ones in

question:

Regardless of how you voted today, which ONE of these candidates do you think would be most likely to defeat Barack Obama in November? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 11%
Paul - 15%
Perry - 1%
Romney - 56%
Santorum - 5%

This is the first column of numbers titled "Total." These numbers should be read down.

Then there are columns for each candidate. These should be read across, NOT down. A down comparison is essentially meaningless. (well, there is a little to be gleaned from doing so, but not much)

What the across numbers are telling you, is what percentage of the Total percentage who thought for example, Huntsman was the most likely to defeat Obama, actually voted for what candidates.

Here are his numbers:

Huntsman Total - 11%
Thought Huntsman was most likely but voted for Paul - 9% (that's 9% OF 11%, or 1% total)
Thought Huntsman was most likely but voted for Gingrich - 1% (again, 1% of 11%)
Thought Huntsman was most likely but voted for Romney - 2%
Thought Huntsman was most likely and voted for Huntsman - 86% (or 9.5% total)

Thus, of the 11% that thought Huntsman was most likely to beat Obama, 86% voted for him, the rest voted for other candidates. And yes, Paul was the second choice here. (which means some people who voted for Paul thought Huntsman was MORE likely than Paul to defeat Obama)

Paul Total - 15%
Thought Paul was most likely and voted for Paul - 88% (that's 88% OF 15% or 13.2% total)
Thought Paul was most likely but voted for Gingrich - 1% (again, 1% of 15%)
Thought Paul was most likely but voted for Romney - 4%
Thought Paul was most likely but voted for Santorum - 1%
Thought Paul was most likely and voted for Huntsman - 5%

Thus, of the 15% that thought Paul was most likely to beat Obama, 88% voted for him, the rest voted for other candidates. By a slim margin, Huntsman was the second choice here. (which means some people who voted for Huntsman thought Paul was MORE likely than Huntsman to defeat Obama)

The real telling numbers though are Romney's:

Romney Total - 56%
Thought Romney was most likely but voted for Paul - 13% (that's 13% OF 56%)
Thought Romney was most likely but voted for Gingrich - 3% (again, 3% of 56%)
Thought Romney was most likely and voted for Romney - 66%
Thought Romney was most likely but voted for Perry - 1%
Thought Romney was most likely but voted for Santorum - 6%
Thought Romney was most likely but voted for Huntsman - 9%

Thus, ONLY 66% of those who thought Romney was the most likely to defeat Obama actually voted for him. Compare this to Paul and Huntsman who picked up 88% and 86% respectively of their "true believers."

Also, again here, Paul was the second choice. 13% of 56% (or ≈7% of the total) who thought Romney was most likely to be President, voted for Paul instead.

THAT is the real story here. And it gives us and HQ a clue as to how to defeat Romney's defacto "electable" status.

But as for the OP's assertion that Paul is most electable via the exit polls, that simply isn't true. The numbers show Romney was THOUGHT to be more electable by 56%, that is a majority. Paul's number here was only 15%. Thus, there is a long uphill battle in that area.

What's promising is that only 15% thought Paul could win the White House, but 24% voted for him. Those extra votes we see, came mostly from Romney and then from Huntsman.

that is how I first read it

regardless, you might as well spin the exit poll in our favor.

Read it how we want to read it, just like MSM.

No, I'm reading it the way the numbers were presented and

how those who laid them out said they should be read.

Sure, you could fudge that, but then the numbers start to not make sense.

In the immediate above reply, I spell out what those numbers mean, and I also "read them how I want" by using them to draw conclusions of what they tell us.

But I don't try to mix apples and oranges. (and I don't leave data out)

Looking at Huntsman supporters, it looks like Paul over Romney?

Please post the fox exit polls in the comment section if they come out.

"IT'S THE CORRUPTION STUPID!"

Ron Paul is the only anti-corruption candidate in the race.
Obama has stolen hundreds of billions and given it to his pals at General Electric, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Solyndra and on and on.
We'll never find all of the 'bodies'.
Romney will do the same.
This election cycle is a test of the American people.
If they elect Barakmitt Obamney they will prove undeserving of the only true Republic in history.

Ben Franklin said, "It's a Republic...if you can keep it." The question he was responding to was, “Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”.