Constructive Lessons from Iowa
There are enough topics for people venting. Let's look at constructive lessons. I started the thread, so mine first:
(1) He is number 1 among Independents. This is primarily because of his stand on the war and foreign policy and related civil liberties.
(2) Independents went far more often to the Democratic caucus than the Republican in Iowa. There also aren't as many.
(3) The campaign used its money to plaster Iowa with two ads. One was a dark and negative tirade against immigrants, and the other was a vague "we have the answer" ad with no answers and another shot at immigrants. Neither mentioned his position on the war or non-intervention or civil liberties (the second ad said "our troops are spread too thin," but you'd have to be a mind-reader or already a supporter to decipher that: it could have meant we needed to double the size of the military). Overall, the theme of both ads was National Sovereignty.
(4) The Ron Paul home page doesn't have one word about either the war or foreign policy. Not one word.
(5) If Independents turn out in large numbers in New Hampshire in the Republican primary, Dr. Paul can have a terrific Tuesday. If they mainly ask for Democratic ballots, he will have another blah night and that one will pretty much end his campaign for the Republican nomination (as New Hampshire is just about the most libertarian state in the country).
Now, one obvious lesson is that the ads stink and the other is that the campaign needs to get back to the message that developed all the enthusiasm and money. We all know quite well that the magical moments in the debates were all about war and non-intervention, and that most of his supporters are not traditional Republican voters.
If the Paul campaign continues this detour away from his being the candidate of liberty and toward him as the candidate of national sovereignty, it's over. But the percentage of NH voters who hate the war is much higher than in Iowa, it is easier for Independents to vote Republican than in a cause, and the percentage of Independents in NH is enormous compared to IA.
My conclusions:
GET BACK ON MESSAGE - Stop the War, Stop Meddling Militarily in Other Countries, Restore Constitutional Protections.
GET OFF THAT OTHER MESSAGE - Stop emphasizing the one issue on which Paul wants to increase government power: immigration.
Liberty vs National Sovereignty
The most important part of this great post is the contrast between National Sovereignty and Liberty.
National Sovereignty is an idea of the past. It is possible that it will get some support but it doesn't match with Ron Paul's young, technology-centered support base.
The forward-thinking approach is towards the individual.
US history before 1929 was farm-based and provincial. Basically from 1929 til 1991 was a question of uniting the people in some large national expression. Now that the cold war is over we ought to be able to communicate with people worldwide as individuals, not as some national voice. All the other candidates, D and R, want to gain hold of that national megaphone.
Paul seems to be more comfortable as a voice to the past, back to the farm. But all those people are dead.
Rozeff on Strategy
I think this piece by Michael Rozeff about refocusing the message around the theme of the war says many of the things better than I did. Peace and non-intervention do the best job of differentiating us from McCain, Clinton, and Obama (who voted for every funding bill for the war after joining Congress until last year, and even some of them last year: Paul, of course, did not ever do so). The monetary crisis is a result of the war, as well.
Every great debate moment, every rise in Dr. Paul's Intrade odds, matched discussion of the war and foreign policy. It is why most joined and contributed in the first place. It is still there, it is still THE most important issue and answer to both foreign and domestic problems, and Dr. Paul still OWNS the issue.
Rozeff also adds some discussion going above and beyond my thoughts, and reinforcing some of the other commenters on this thread.
Time to focus on the vision we need to give the voters.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/018236.html
McCain video
I totally agree about the ads. The "terrorist nations" comment was so beneath Ron Paul that I can't believe he used that phrase. It really took the wind out of my sails for half a day. But McCain said something even dumber. He says we'll stay in Iraq for 100 years.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/04/mccain-100-years/
Is there some way to give feedback to the campaign about how they are using our generous donations?
I agree with most points
1.) The landline polls ARE CORRECT. So lets end that argument right now. Ron Paul was within the margin of error (yes, albeit on the positive side of that margin, but within it).
If you NOW finally accept that premise. Ron Paul is only polling at 7% in New Hampshire meaning he's going to get 10% of the NH vote AT MOST.
That, my freinds, is completely, totally, unacceptable.
2.) Ron Paul's paid campaign stinks. I said this back on Nov 5 after donating to Ron Paul. I said if Ron Paul can not poll at 10% by December 16, I would not donate again. And I did not do so. I pay for performance. The campaign has the money, now THEY have the baton and should run with it. Simply put, Ron needs 14% of the vote in any of these states for media coverage and to knock off a contender or two. I saw the initial TV ads with my money, and I almost had a heart attack. Simply put you get a NYC ad firm to do an TV ad. With $20 million, they can MORE than afford this. Finally, with a fraction of their campaign money, they could have sent a DVD to everyone in the state of NH and all independents/republicans in Iowa. Yet they did not.
3.)I believe a negative TV is needed. Show McCain saying he'd stay in Iraq for 100 years. Show Giuiliani saying that Dick Cheney would make a great VP. Show Romney from the debate stage that he'd consult his attorney's to see if he could declare war. What independent isn't going to eat that up and vote for Ron Paul or at least NOT vote for one of the other baffoons.
The only positive thing about IOWA is that it shows us that the POLLS ARE CORRECT and that WE BEAT THE SNOT OUT OF GIULIANI (by 7500 votes!). It also shows that we were only 3300-4000 votes away from being third or fourth. So we are within reach but we have little time and I fear for next week.
Bump
I agree. Many people are new to political campaigns here and don't understand that it is a game, in a way. We definitely have to get serious and really focus. Who cares anymore about old media bias? Who cares anymore about online polls? Who cares about record breaking donation drives anymore? Those things are going to have little effect now, only votes matter.All those things, and many others, are not going to get RP the nomination. We need more grassroots,like signbomb08, that get people active on the ground.
I think this is a great thread because I hope, it will get people talking about a shift in priorities and focus. The time has come for people to reconsider there course of action, along with HQ, to determine the best way to our goal.
show some 3VOL!
I would urge everyone to realize that being constructive and positive about the Iowa Caucus results, as opposed to destructive and negative, is the only way to move forward, grow the Freedom, Peace & Prosperity Movement, and elect The Honorable Doctor Ron Paul as President.
Please, stay away from the Dark Side--it will only consume you!
Remember, at the heart of our r3OVLution is LOVE!
"Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” -Yoda
----
"...a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." -John F. Kennedy
agreed
Freedom: Ron Paul will restore your constitutional rights, allow you not the insurance companies and HMOs to choose your own doctor again, allow parents to choose the quality of your children's education again, and work to phase out the IRS through responsible fiscal policy.
Peace: Ron Paul believes in peace through a strong national security, he will declare victory and bring all our troops home, secure our borders, purchase nuclear stock piles to keep them out of the hands of the terrorists.
Prosperity: Ron Paul will balance the budget, return the economy to a surplus, and stop inflation by making the dollar as good as gold again, protecting Social Security from going bankrupt.
I agree we need to learn our lessons and quickly!
Ron Paul advertisement's need to distinguish him from the rest of the field.
It also needs to educate people on the issues.
Monetary Policy is number one because it is the most dangerous and it's currently affecting each and every person in the United States. And Ron Paul is the only one mentioning it. The economy is bad and getting worse and this is another key. If we can get people to start asking questions about this, we're well on our way to winning!
Non-Interventionism. Again we need to educate people. I use the example: If two kids are fighting on the playground.
A non-interventionist doesn't get in the middle.
An isolationist doesn't notice, because he has no friends.
An interventionist (our current policy) beats both of them up then steals their lunch money!
Reducing the size of government: We can dramatically reduce the size of government without anyone even noticing. There are numerous duplications by states and other departments. We can send government employees home with 6 months pay and save 50%!
Mike
Who is Ron Paul? I am Ron Paul! We are Ron Paul!
"Fire Team for Freedom" on RonPaulRadio.com
Mondays and Wednesdays 10pm EST
or visit www.mikeandjake.com
Mike
"Fire Team for Freedom"
visit www.mikeandjake.com
New Hampshire issues - oil prices
High corn prices from inflation are good for Iowans.
In addition, they would never go for Ron Paul in large numbers, primarily because of his opposition to subsidies, which doomed John McCain and Bill Bradley back in 2000. It's just something that is make or break for them.
In New Hampshire, high oil prices from inflation are murdering the voters.
I have written before that Ron Paul's gold solution is problematic to me. But his diagnosis of the problem is right. The Fed inflates gold to $850/ounce and that's why we have oil at $100/barrel. It's very simple.
John McCain, most vociferous among Republicans, has said he would prop up a dead Fed Chairman. That's a point to get him on. Not that the Fed is illegal, but that it's the reason your heating bills are so high.
INFO TO CAMPAIGN
SOMEONE needs to get this post info. to the campaign headquarters.
It is vital feedback.
The good news is that this is a WAKE UP CALL
Like many of you I had my hopes for a 2'nd or 3'rd place finish. I secretly hoped an even somewhat expected that we would finally prove we were not only viable but that the message was spreading and people were coming on board. Boy was I wrong.... but in a way, this is the best outcome we could have had today.
Before I tell you why I feel this, let me share that I am a strategist by profession - so what I am about to say will come from that perspective.
The good news is that this is a real WAKE UP CALL. The bad news is that THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO.
1.) We didn't believe the polls, which meant we had no way to measure how were were doing. Well the polls were close enough - we need to start using them as a measure of how many people are on board. They may not be perfect, but we have TO USE THE POLLS AS A MEASURE
2.) RP's message (and I love the message) is complex - most people do not understand it. Get rid of the income tax - great but how exactly would we replace the $1T. By cutting spending - ok, but where are the numbers to show that would work. The Fed is illegal - no one is going to get it. I was shocked when I watched the FIAT empire movie - but that took me an hour and even then it was complex to understand - the common man is not going to watch, nor understand. I can go on and on about the message but the MESSAGE NEEDS TO BE SIMPLIFIED to be digestible
3.) People vote for people, as much as the work on the issues. We've got to SOFTEN UP RON PAUL - get him in front of people in more casual settings instead of debates and press clippings - Im not sure how we do this but I believe it has to be done. Watch Obama in his speeches - he is not behind a podium he is mingling with the crowd and is very comfortable. Ron's christmas message in the red shirt was a great example - he looked comfortable and at ease
4.) We've got to get away from our computers and GET IN FRONT OF PEOPLE. For get the online polls, forget the forums - get in front of people and talk about why you support Paul. We have amazingly passionate supporters - passion shows, passion resonates, passion rubs off. We'll be amazed how much we can do in the real world.
5.)I was watching some interviews of RP supporters and many were IT people. The reporter kept asking why - its simple - IT people are usually logical and RP's message is logical. Most people are not logical - the polls showed that today - the state of the country shows it every day. We've got to TRANSLATE THE LOGICAL MESSAGE TO AN EMOTIONAL ONE.
6.) STOP WASTING TIME BASHING THE PRESS OR NON BELIEVERS. That will not put RP in the WH.
7.) We've not united as supporters - in a way there's too much disparate effort going on, and mostly uncoordinated with the campaign. Its great to see the enthusiasm but we are not optimizing the effort - because its uncoordinated. The only way to address this is to have the campaign coordinate more - not sure how to get them to do it but we have to try. Perhaps we can organize a meetup where we spend 3-4 hrs with the campaign weekly to coordinate.
8.) WHAT IS THE STRATEGY TO WIN?????. The campaign really needs to step up here and share how we plan to do this. At least share enough to optimize the grassroots efforts. THIS ISNT GOING TO HAPPEN ON ITS OWN - unlike fund raising which did - THE CAMPAIGN is going to have to drive strategy. Without a central strategy - kiss the nomination goodbye.
9.) We're going to be even more marginalized by the MSM now. The ONLY way we got their attention in the past was money bombs - I say we go for one more. CANCEL ALL OTHERS and have the campaign coordinate the next one. We've got to do more than $6.2M. The message needs to be, despite the results in Iowa, support is still strong. There is no other way to deliver this message. Remember, if the bomb fails, its going to hurt the cause bad - so it has to be coordinated. The campaign has to say something along the lines of this is the only bomb for the next x months. (I dont know what x should be)
10.) There is no more worth cause. Good things dont come by easily. Theres nothing worth fighting for more. We can make it happen - we have to make it happen. Stay positive, work hard and lets get smarter about how we do this.
If anyone has access to the campaign and is in a position to share the feedback, please do. Comments are welcome, esp if there are ideas on how to further our cause.
Zack
Loved your points Zack!
And I'd like to underline each, except #7 (More centralization by HQ) and #9 (Yet another money bomb). And I use to argue against these points, my agreement with #2 (Need to communicate more effectively), and #3 (Need to communicate more personally).
Centralization works only when the central committee knowsthe right strategy. We're in uncharted water with this campaign; how to 'win' is unknown. Our central committee has some strengths, but may be really weak in #2 and #3, but our grassroots has great strength in those areas. If we focus all resources and hopes on the central committee, we are undercutting the grassroots, that might be our only hope to bolster our chances.
For example, the central committee has not shown outstanding ability communicating our complex message and making the movement personable. But there are some great examples of grassroots efforts that do just that. Look at the advertisements... The central committee's advertisements are staid, boring, bland, uninspiriing, and in the case of immigation, a tad scary. But look at the advertisements on YouTube, (which likely attracted many of us here), or look at JBlack's TV advertisments.
Throwing more money -- that is not needed -- at the central committee will only further starve the grassroot's efforts that, IMO, have a greater chance of showing the beauty and hope for Freedom, and a better chance of explaining it.
Sure we can impress the OM and they'll comment on yet-another-money-bomb as an aside a few days later. But what will impress them is votes. And what will get us votes is grassroots efforts now. A moneybomb with no votes gets us very little. Votes despite no moneybomb gets us a lot.
My take-away is we need to share our grassroots more with the voter. More JBlack TV ads, more DVD mailings, more canvassing, more personal letters. Let the grassroots fund the grassroots communicating the LOVE and the reLOVEution to the people.
but those are just this strategist's take-aways for the...
re[love]ution,
Dennis
Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis
Good points
Thanks for the comments. Im not familar with how HQ has been running this so I will defer to you if indeed HQ cannot be an effective central organizer of the grass roots.
That being said, we do need to get more organized. There are some excellent points in these threads. How about putting together a wiki of the top 10 issues and details behind them. I checked out HUCKS page and he has something like that - its simple to see his issues and positions. We can off course do a LOT better.
Thoughts?
My lessons...
I'm disappointed. My hope was double digits and 4th place. This is 'better than expected', but is in-line with polling prior to the election. A real problem is that the independents went to the "more interesting" Democratic race.
re[love]ution,
Dennis
Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis
Hear! Hear!
To WIN we are going to need BOTH the army of ants (the grassroots) and the heavy artillery (the Official Campaign) to do their respective jobs properly. I don't know what the OC is doing, or thinking--but it would sure help us ants to coordinate efforts with them if they'd let us in on their strategy (I'm hoping they have one). Perhaps they want to hide it from the "enemy"--but I'd be amazed if, between moles, spies and electronic bugs (NO "troll" shouts please--this is Realpolitik, not paranoia), the CFR War Room doesn't know every word breathed at HQ within hours, if not minutes. We can't out-cloak-and-dagger the neocon masters of the art. But we DO have an army of ants---of the other campaigns only Huck and Edwards have anything at all like us--and we are the MASTERS in this arena. And a diversified grassroots effort is all but immune to spies, moles and trolls---it'd bug the heck out of the CFR strategists "Where did all those dang ants come from---there's nothin' on the radar screen..."
The WEAKNESS of the ants is lack of coordination---as the poster above pointed out. Thanks to McCain-Feingold the Official Campaign can't officially direct or coordinate with us---nor would I want them to do so, but if they were to at least clue us in--we could voluntarily coordinate ourselves :-} Maybe we could launch an UNofficial Campaign HQ and coordinate ourselves?
And as long as I'm griping (constructively I hope)--- it'd be nice to know if HQ actually listens to feedback from the grassroots. I've sent numerous messages to the "Suggestions" box on "Contact Us" on ronpaul2008.com and never received so much as an acknowledgement that they even received my message. Anybody at HQ reading?
"If we don't all hang together, we shall most assuredly all hang separately." Ben Franklin
salt-of-the-earth
It's not over yet
There are still 4% of the votes lingering out there. We could still end up with an 11 or 12% three-way tie.
www.libertyrestorationproject.org
"We are the inheritors of the American Enlightenment, which tells us that Individual Liberty always trumps collectivism in all forms."
True but...
...do your math. Wish you were right but we'd have to get a quarter of the 4% to get up even to 11%; half of the remaining 4% to get to 12%. Mathematically possible but very unlikely. Afraid we'll probably have to settle for 10% whether that was the actual vote or "massaged" by the vote tally folks.
salt-of-the-earth
Bump!
May I just ad..... The Campaign needs to launch NOW their Super Tuesday TV Ads in the Super Tuesday States.... And you are right, they better be good. Why not buy our grassroots ads? Sometimes, I think HQ just does not get it....
Spend every nickel.
Treg
maybe..?
write to ron paul's campaign staff about this, i think that may help?
Listen Up
I wrote about this on another post, but I think this is important.
I've been calling rep. voters in Iowa since Oct. Many many Ron Paul supporters said they weren't going to the caucus. The main reason cited, it would be a wasted vote.
If they had gone, and I know this because I live in a rural part of Iowa, Ron Paul could have come in 2nd, maybe 1st in my county.
So for the rest of the nation think about what I just said. We constantly are telling America to Wake Up. Well I'm telling you Ron Paul supporters to Wake Up. You have to go out and vote.
We can win this but you can't be like the rest of America and sit at home while a minority nominates who will be running for President.
Do you hear me?
wasted vote
That's too bad, but I'm sure the other campaigns had the same experience don't you think?
Do you mean that there were
Do you mean that there were some Huckabee supporters who stayed at home because they thought it would be a wasted vote if they voted for Huckabee?
I'm not sure that that is the case. Huckabee has been on NBC, CBS and ABC night after night for at least a month now. I can only remember Ron Paul being on any of those news channels one time on Dec 18th. So why would Huckabee's supporters think he did not have a chance to win? Same with Romney.
If you are a genuine Ron Paul supporter, how could you even for a minute think voting for Ron Paul is a wasted vote? You may never again have the chance to vote for a man with his character and courage. I compare those people who buy into the wasted vote theory to George Stephanopoulis. Remember how insulting it was when George told RP that he was not going to win? Well I think any RP supporter who talks about wasted votes is just as bad as George.
If you only want to vote for a person you think can win the rep. or dem. party nomination, you are just perpetuating politics as usual by making the rep. or dem. party your priority rather than what is in the best interest of the country. And we all know how good that has been for our country.
Amen
You can't be all things to all people. FOCUS!
New Hampshire and Ecuador