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What's behind the results and how to do better in NH

Submitted by valleyforge on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 00:37
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You won't see CNN or MSNBC dissecting the entrance polls for Ron Paul, so here's my analysis:

Paul ran well among Independents, Youth, Moderates, religiously tolerant, those angry at Bush, those concerned about the economy.

Problem? Older, pro-Bush, evangelical, conservative Republican regulars dominated the caucus.

The results may be slanted somewhat by Iowa's religious conservatism, but it could also mean that Paul is not closing the sale with conservatives in general. His ads and mailers tout his conservative stances on abortion, immigration, and defense, but his caucus supporters were mostly young independents.

Where was Paul strong?

Independents (13% of Republican caucus): Paul won 29%
17-29 year-olds (11%): 21%
Moderates (11%): 17%
Religion doesn't matter (15%): 17%
Economy top issue (26%): 16%
Says what he believes (33%): 14%

Where was Paul weak?

Experience (14%): 1%
Electability (7%): 5%
Enthusiastic about Bush (20%) 2%
Terrorism top issue (21%): 6%
Republicans (86%): 7%

Encouraging Signs

- New Hampshire has lots of Independents and Moderates (but Obama will compete for them)
- New Hampshire is much more secular.
- Paul is viewed as a man who says what he believes. In NH, unlike Iowa, he could also be viewed as someone who "shares my values".
- Electability and experience are not important to voters yet.

Strategies for Improvement

Target conservatives who are moderately dissatisfied with Bush (perhaps on spending)
--> 26% were dissatisifed vs. 5% angry
--> Paul only got 12% of dissatisifed vs. 54% of the angry

Sharpen message on illegal immigration
--> top issue for 33% (most popular issue)
--> Paul only got 9% (vs. 16% on Economy, 12% on Iraq)
--> (Disclaimer: I agree with antboy that immigration is a distraction, but many voters care about it)

Ignore McCain and draw distinctions with Obama to attract Independents
--> Paul got 29% of Independents who caucused with Republicans, but about 75% of all independents who turned out caucused with Democrats

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Economy was a top issue in Iowa

Submitted by zackmario on Thu, 01/10/2008 - 16:01.

The economy and spending are the true main campaign themes. Listen to Paul on the war, on healthcare, on immigration, on taxes, on almost anything and the underlying theme is economics.

The other candidates cannot touch him on this.
People relate when it hits their wallets
His voting record is immaculate
MSM is already talking about this - look at the beck utube video. Dobbs...

The grassroots need to do the same and align behind this message.

Please support this message by commenting here. http://www.dailypaul.com/...

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/24147

Charisma Solution -- Decentralize it, head on

Submitted by denpratt on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 14:47.


Ron Paul talks about running not to run your lives or tell you what to do or tell other countries what to do. He's running to let you run your own life and for other countries to run their own countries. It's one of his best lines.

What if he takes on the charisma issue head on?

You vote charisma because you want to like the person who is your Lord and Master. But with Ron Paul, you are your own lord and master! The person for whom you are voting is not *him* but *you*.

So you can vote for someone with charisma and charm, and let them run your life.

Or you can vote for me and run your own life.

And simply look in the mirror for all the charm that you'll need.

re[love]ution,
Dennis

—

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

Whew! That's quite a

Submitted by iwontbackdown on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:42.

Whew! That's quite a breakdown! You should start your own analytical "truth news" show. Anyway, I think that the 'experience card' will matter to voters in New Hampshire. They seem to be a "intellectual" bunch who have already done their homework. Ron Paul is the most experienced candidate running. As a congressman he is on the "inside" track in Washington and has amazingly remained "untainted" from the corruption that he alone has made obvious to the American public.

also

Submitted by Thedude on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:42.

If you look at a breakdown of the counties in Iowa, paul consistently placed third or better in easter iowa. He fell in western Iowa. Now if you look at a breakdown of internet service, western iowa is far more rural, and if you look at broadband access, it is much more limited. So for a candidate like paul who is primarily found online, this is worth many percentage points.

I work in the media, and Paul NEEDS to absolutely needs to hire some professional PR, the grassroots is there without a doubt, but he must reach the uneducated masses, that is where the key to election lies.

Also, has anyone thought about this, Ron Paul campaign is shaping up very similarly to George Mcgovern's in 1972. I know he was a democrat, but if you look at primary results, Mcgovern had the same campaign paul has been having. The only difference, paul will win.

-----Politics is the art of controlling your environment.
--Hunter S Thompson.

the dude abides.

—

the dude abides.

Also...ACTIVATE

Submitted by MediatorMPA on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:35.

Historically, this strategy has been questioned---but, what about targeting the 50% of americans who have not voted in years?

Reactivate---the disillusioned 50% mass sitting on sidelines.

Great Analysis---but...

Submitted by MediatorMPA on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:32.

I'm in MA. 30 minutes out of NH.

There are lots of illegals and legal as well here.

They do the 'labor' others 'won't do.'

I would examine if a strong anti-illegal stance would go over in NH?

Charisma issues

Submitted by ironman77 on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:25.

Sadly, People still vote on who they like and who they think is popular. McCain the war hero, and Obama the young black superstar.

Dr. Paul is unknown, is older has a high voice, is really nice, but not really that outgoing. More like a professor than a used car salesman.

So how would a professor beat a used car salesman ?

With his message of freedom.

Submitted by iwontbackdown on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:46.

With his message of freedom. It's not the man, it's the message.
And Dr. Paul has plenty of spark when he wants to get his message across.

Excellent analysis valleyforge

Submitted by denpratt on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:17.


I love many of your points. I'd like to add a few strategies for NH improvement, if I may...

  • Redefine "experience". McCain is tracking well because he is 'experienced', but he is experienced with the failed policy of interventionism. Ron Paul is more experienced than any other candidate in allowing other countries to solve their own problems without dragging our children and our wealth to try to dictate other countries.
  • Terrorism: We will continue to have terrorism as long as we continue the forign policy of interventionism - which is what the other candidates all espouse -- even those who want to exit from Iraq. Terrorism is a technique that an overwhelmed group uses to expel an overpowering group. As long as we insist on being the overpowering group, we will attract terrorism, but as soon as we allow the peoples of other countries to decide for themselves what their countries will be like -- and we don't interfere with force -- we are no longer of interest to such targets.
  • Electability: We have to make the case that the Democrats win ... unless we can attract Independents. The Republican who can attract the most Independents and Democrats is Ron Paul.
  • Personality: We are big on ideas and short on heart. Obama has all the heart. We need JBlack type ads in NH (and SC) to show real people needing freedom -- not just abstract concepts .
  • Every county covered. (How the heck did we have that one county in which no one was there to speak for Dr. Paul???? And was CSPAN2 just lucky enough to be filming that one county or did we miss bigtime?)

All for now but room to grow the...

re[love]ution,
Dennis

—

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

For the Terrorism angle, how about an ad

Submitted by denpratt on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 11:22.


that leverages from this poster's comments:

I am from what you have been calling as the Third World.

It is a fact that the US has been interfering with the domestic affairs of my country [RP], either imposed or solicited by our own corrupt leaders, including state-sponsored terror; and that whoever you choose this November will greatly impact on the future of my countrymen.

Put a face and a need on the people on whom we try to force our will on. When they see the specific, they will understand the principle of the...

re[love]ution,
Dennis

—

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

We also need to Focus On.....

Submitted by SyntheticSolutions on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 01:02.

FEMALE VOTERS!

what does Iowa really mean?

Submitted by tompaine on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 01:00.

This is from a post at Free Republic and shows how ridiculous this thing really is. Ron Paul is not out even if he got trounced there and he did not. Independents may rule in NH.

.
Democrats:
1972 - Iowa Caucus winner: Edmund Muskie. He neither became the party candidate nor the President.

1976 - Iowa Caucus winner: No Winner, the largest vote went to “Uncommitted” (the eventual President, Democrat Jimmy Carter, only got 28% of the vote)

1980 - Iowa Caucus winner: Jimmy Carter - lost in general election to Ronald Reagan

1984 - Iowa Caucus winner: Walter Mondale - lost in general election as Ronald Reagan re-elected.

1988 - Iowa Caucus winner: Richard Gephart was not the Party’s eventual nominee.

1992 - Iowa Caucus winner: Tom Harkin in a landslide victory -eventual party nominee and next President, Bill Clinton only got 3% of the vote

1996 - Iowa Caucus winner: Since Bill Clinton ran unopposed in the caucus, Iowa caucus-goers couldn’t help but vote for the eventual winner.

2000 - Iowa Caucus winner: Al Gore - did not become the next President of the U.S.

2004 - Iowa Caucus winner: John Kerry - did not become the next President.

Republican:
2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)
2000- George W. Bush* (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)

1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)

1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)

1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)

1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)

1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan

Strong analysis

Submitted by laissez faire on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 00:55.

I would add as positives that McCain and Obama are about to come under heavy attack by their rivals. And I disagree about McCain, I would draw strong distinctions with him on Campaign Finance, Internet Taxation and I would ask John and all opponents ---- do you really believe we need 700 military bases in 130 countries? To be in Eurpoe, Korea and Japan each over 50 years? RP is the only candidate serious about reducing the size of gov... ah I'm just too tired to write it qll out. Night Night All. -JP

—

The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.