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Insider Advantage SC Poll: Romney 32%, Gingrich 21%, Paul 14%, Santorum 13%



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Good news

Here's why this is good:

1) Paul hasn't dropped - that means the NH bounce wasn't temporary. We could have sunk back to 9-10%.

2) Santorum is still down - that means we can take 3rd and knock him out. This poll was taken the day AFTER he was endorsed by evangelical leaders. No momentum for Santorum.

3) Gingrich is stagnant - he is primed to fall or be passed.

4) This doesn't include impact of Davis' endorsement or Huntsman's departure (we pick up many of the Indies, Dems, and moderates he would have gotten)

5) This is close to other polls so it reinforces Paul being in the mid-teens and poised to surge past Gingrich into second.

We were never at 20%. One poll showed that and it was ARG, a very unreliable pollster (btw, they had us jumping 11 points in a week for all those questioning Romney's jump in this poll). Don't raise your expectations based on one poll, look at the average. And remember what goes up could come down, so be grateful when it doesn't.

We bounced from 9-10% to 13-16% after NH. We are still there as of today. Its only been two days since the last batch of polls were in the field. But in the next couple days the Davis/Huntsman fallout will give us upward momentum. Look for movement towards 20% in polls released Thursday or Friday. By then it will be too late for the other campaigns to stop us.

Rick Santorum is tied with RP

Rick Santorum is tied with RP in the 18-29 age bracket? Hogwash!

Insider Advatage is run by

Insider Advatage is run by Gingrich's former campaign manager who was initially with him

In fact, right after he left the campaign and went to the polling company, Gingrich's number went from subterranean to the moon.

I mean really?

If they're fixing the poll they're doing a lousy job

Gingrich at 21% is lower than most other pollsters show.

I took a 6 months course in statistics

15 years ago at university and all these anomalies in the polls so far this election, don´t make sense statistically. Some things are just impossible. After all statistics are to eliminate errors not enhance them. Otherwise it is a failure mathematically.
Haven´t looked close at all the polls, but many of them lack basic requirements to be valid to begin with.
One such requirement is choosing the correct " population " you want to poll and then choosing in a correct way who of those will be polled. Always you have to report all these things. Another requirement is to always report statistical margin of error.
But there are also other. People don´t swing 10+ points is mere days, that is statistically impossible to anyone with basic knowledge of statistics. If so the polls were faulty.
My professor always said, if a poll fails any basic requirement, toss it aside, cause it is flawed.
Unfortunately most people have no basic knowledge how statistics work, so they are influenced by them even if they are faulty.

Personally I think they put out flawed polls to influence people and I also think they rig votes as much they can.

The fact that Ron still gets so many votes, tells a story that in reality Ron is having a landslide. But I have no proof of that.

Don't dismiss the polls

They are usually very accurate when averaged together. And even the lousy pollsters follow all the proper statistical procedures. They just make different methodological choices like automated phoning, or skipping cell-phone-only households, or differences in weighting the sample.

Follow the fivethirtyeight blog for awhile and learn how they work. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

m72mc

Insider Advatage is run by Gingrich's former campaign manager who was initially with him

In fact, right after he left the campaign and went to the polling company, Gingrich's number went from subterranean to the moon.

I mean really?

I think it is pretty

horrible what is going on. It is worse that the propaganda of Germany in the 30´s. Good thing now is we are exposing them cause we still have the INTERNET. I think Ron is right, you can´t stop an idea who´s time has come.

Cyril's picture

I think you make good points,

Thank you for your insights in what should be statistical best practices.

Yes, I noticed the weird stats figures shift several times and found it HIGHLY suspicious, assuming I wouldn't even question the RP poll levels at specific points in time.

The poll stats evolutions thereof, you're confirming me that for good now, really stink AWFULLY.

MSM, not always, not everywhere, but formidably disgustingly most often, is hard on trying mind control on us (or discouragement, at least) or unaware people.

Guess what ... this is way TOO remote control, still. At some point, for the very last poll or during caucuses they have to drop their deceptive disinformation game; they can't just lie until the very end, actual figures must show up eventually.

I think that was your point; and that's a very good tip to others of us, among the RP support base, to have them "presstitutes" BUSTED.

Thanks again,

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

Are they trying to tell us

Are they trying to tell us that Romney gained 9 points in four days since the last poll they took? I mean look at the polling company's name: Insider Advantage. I guess they want to give an advantage to the biggest insider candidate in the race.

I Thought RON PAUL Had 20%+.

I Thought RON PAUL Had 20%+. This Polls Can't Trust.

No doubt this will change this week

With Grinch and Romney beating each other up, and Sanctorium beating himself up... we will rise !