2 votes

A three way race to the convention

Santorum correctly characterized a three-way battle for the heart of the Republican party:
- a Big Corporate, Big Government Moderate wing
- a Big War, Big Values NeoConservative wing
- a Noninterventionist, Small Government wing

Dr. Paul owns the last wing. What the establishment pundits have not recognized is that their “hard ceiling” on our wing has been inching up continuously -- from 7% to now perhaps 22%. What we have not appreciated is that inching forward requires more time to get to our goal; the message of freedom must diffuse through decades of calcified interventionist Big Government indoctrination.

If we were forced into a head-to-head race -- *today* -- against either other wing, the establishment press would have plenty of justification to ignore a Dr. Paul with only 20%, versus the other candidate with 80%. The only conversation, in MSM and in parlors, would be Obama vs. the Big Government Republican.

IMO, our best shot is to keep this primary race inconclusive, and thus ‘interesting’. A long battle between the first two wings allows us to continue proselytizing Dr. Paul’s message of human freedom to potential converts who would have to continue thinking about the amount of control they want to give politicians and bureaucrats over their lives.

We ratchet. We do not surge. It takes a long time to wear away enough indoctrination for people to start desiring their freedom, versus blindly swallowing the utopian promises of a benevolent dictatorship. Consolidating this race too early ends our ability to convert.

The interesting race in SC and Florida will be between Santorum and Gingrich, for who can capture that second wing. Palin and Perry endorsed Gingrich. Romney and Dr. Paul already have their wings secured and are not going anywhere, no matter the results.

Then we want a long enough race to erode the other wings. Our wing is unerodable; once freed, few re-accept chains. Their wings, based on coerced compulsion, plunder, lies, false promises, and inhumanity, are quite vulnerable, if allowed enough time for people to think ...

It’s a siege, not a raid. Let’s hope that we quickly get to three candidates, without Romney capturing "presumptive winner".

We should be ecstatic to battle for delegates, in state after state, with each wing claiming some states. We could continue our de-indoctrination of the masses -- all the way to a brokered convention where Republican pragmatists will confer with our delegates over their only choice -- Dr. Paul, or Obama.



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We should be ecstatic

That Ron Paul's candidacy is exposing the fake conservatives, the ones who say that they believe in freedom and limited government EXCEPT when there is a chance to actually win. We should be ecstatic for the chance to wake people up. We should not lose hope if this becomes a three way race, especially if it is Gingrich, because we all know that Newt has loose lips and there is probably plenty more ammo out there. But a three way race is NOT a good thing. We should hope that Gingrich is knocked down and that both Santorum and Gingrich are marginalized.

Yes, Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney

would have a difficulty in a long race maintaining their facades. Dr. Paul, not having a facade, would eventually win many over.

But, if all candidates dropped out today, most of the voters would not yet have been convinced that individual freedom is more important than the false promises of tyranny. They would not go to Dr. Paul in equal numbers to Romney. Romney would receive what looks like an overwhelming lead.

Pundits and voters would stop paying attention. Without that attention, we would lose our ability to convert. The conversation would go to Big Government Democrat versus Big Government Republican and Dr. Paul's message of Small Government would wither on the vine.

Or at least that seems to have been what has happened in the past with insurgencies.

I really believe that our movement needs more time in the limelight.

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis

I agree with your analysis

There is the ROMNEY "same old, same old" type of voter who pays no attention to anything and just gets out of bed on election day and votes for the name that is "familiar".

There will be the "tea party" voter who runs on FEAR of the Muslim invasion..... whether these will go to Newt or Santorum is up for grabs right now.

And there is "door number three"... the Ron Paul voter, who will NOT vote for anyone else... not out of spite, but out of CONVICTION.

The Republicans have a hell of a mess on their hands. They have to pick "door number three" if they want any chance of beating Obama. No Independent or Progressive will vote for Santorum, Gingrich or Romney...but they WOULD vote for Paul. Unfortunately, the old elites in the republican party will allow their desire to maintain control of the war party to override their desire to win.

If they don't wake up to these plain facts.... Obama's in for another 4 years.

Thomas Jefferson: “Indeed, I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just, that His justice cannot sleep forever."

Viva La Revolucion!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmaTNf4YhEs

Yes. The establishment's only hope

is to conclude the race immediately, prematurely, before enough people think this through. "Shut up and get in line to end Obama," will then be their cry.

By keeping the door open, the establishment's hollowness will increasingly be exposed.

And they'll eventually realize that they'll have *no* chance with anyone but Paul, because voters converted to freedom won't obediently get in their line to their slaughterhouse.

Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis