68 votes

It's a 2 man RACE!

This is a comment my wife just sent me from the reteaparty blog. Link at the bottom for original post.

No matter what the media wants you to believe, It’s already a two-man race.
Of the 2,286 total Republican delegates, 1,144 are needed to win nomination. In five (5) States: Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Illinois, Gingrich and Santorum are not even on the ballot. That’s 564 delegates that they cannot get. After South Carolina, only 59 delegates have been allocated to the 4 candidates. Mitt Romney has 39 of those. This means Santorum or Gingrich has to pick up 1,144 delegates from the remaining 1,683. Let’s say that Paul only picks up 20% of the total number of delegates–I happen to believe he will do much better–but let’s pick 20%. That’s 457 delegates for Paul. Add that to the 564 that Newt and Santorum won’t have a shot at and now there are 1,021 delegates that Santorum and Gingrich have no chance of getting. Subtract that 1,021 from the total 2,286 and you’re left with 1,265 delegates. That means that Gingrich and Santorum, one or the other, have to pick up over 90% of the available delegates to get the nomination. So, essentially, we’re down to Paul and Romney. A vote for Gingrich and Santorum is a wasted vote! A vote for Paul is not a wasted vote and may well mean that the next President of the United States will be a man that, for the last 30 years, has never broken a promise, compromised his principles or waffled his position on an issue. A man that still believes that the Constitution of the United States is THE law of the land and that the protection of our individual liberties is the primary reason for the Federal government.

Here's the original article: http://www.reteaparty.com/2012/01/26/tea-party-romney-most-e...



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Answer1984With1776 is an orange

is what someone sent me.....and since we make titles out of whatever people send to us, it's not just to grab attention

Romney was an adult Mormon when Mormon was racist

But the media just glosses over that.

They get on Paul for his newsletters.

Make a big deal about Santorums "black" slip.

Make up a racist lie about Newt's school children working idea.

But no one challenged Mitt for having a father who was Mormon when it was a very racist organization...and Mitt chose to stay a Mormon even when he was an adult while it was still racist. Mitt was his thirties by the time Mormon *started* changing its ways.

He should be asked, "what was it like being part of an official racist organization and why did you stay in it?"

It's a 2 man race - Yeah

but there are half truths in the comment:
it takes the 564 faaaar to literally ....

And sorry, but the math is bad, or the logical drawing of conclusions is flawed.
At least the use of the nummers is really ... creativ!

Conclusion:
As a motivational post it is good,
but it is not a post of fact AT ALL (in it's reasoning)

________________________________________
my Ron Paul video collection:

www.youtube.com/austria4ronpaul
(4 years RP, over 2300 videos)

Can somebody confirm,,,

For real that they are not on the ballot in those states? I tried to find info and found that MS doesnt matter bc no delegates, TN gingrich is on, and he made it on in OHIO.

What gives, I do know the campaign said it at one point, but it would be nice to know for sure. Wish it would be on the news. Maybe we can put Ben on this. :)

The last number I saw was 4 states,

but that was almost a month ago. So the number is probably higher. I thing these are the four he missed: Virginia, Missouri, Illinois, and Arizona

Correction: I see below that he is on in Illinois.

To clarify the "564" number

I made a thread about this earlier but I will repost here,

"I have confirmed with Mr. Wead that the 564 delegates as referred in a recent MSNBC interview, is based on numbers from an aide with the Romney camp. The numbers were tallied and used by that campaign to support its position that Gingrich and Santorum cannot win.

One other bit of useful information from Mr Wead is that anyone claiming to know the delegates allocated out of Iowa can not be relied upon, as they have yet to be done.

Without going into further detail, there is strategy in place with regard to winning the nomination and the path to success, but it is top secret for obvious reasons.

I hope this helps to clarify some things and prevent misinformation floating around."

An alternative to the MSM Machine http://freedombroadcastingnetwork.com/
Ron Paul friendly news: http://www.newsetal.com/

reedr3v's picture

bump

.

wrong on missouri

Not on the totally irrelevant primary ballot. His delegates can caucus all day long and get elected.

No one has deputized America to play Wyatt Earp to the world.
-Pat Buchanan

2 cents

I expect Santorum to drop out and Newt to choke on his own foot which leaves Mr. "status quo" to fight it out with Mr. Integrity.

Sad to say, but it's not

Sad to say, but it's not true. I'm here in Illinois and Newt and Santorum are on the ballot. Unfortunately, this is being spread around the web. Virginia and Missouri are the only states where Newt and Rick are not on the ballot. My fellow Paulites, can we try to show the same integrity as our leader and not pass along false info? I implore you to check things out before spreading false info. Thanks.

Are we sure this is right?

I keep seeing different things floated around about this and yes I did see the interview with Doug when he first put this number of 500ish (not sure exact #) delegates out there. So I googled. Virgina - no newt and rick; Missouri - no newt; Ohio - Rick missing only 3 precincts; Tennessee - Rick as no delegates; Illinois -both are ON. I only looked at these states as they are the ones mentioned.

I closed a window and lost some of the links put here is a couple of them;

This is for Ohio:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/01/11/6-g...

Then there is this with Illnois:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-01-07/news/ct-met-il...

Then this with Tenneessee:

http://tnsos.org/elections/2012Delegates.php?showall

All I know is, it is more than I understand.

I question the data

"That’s 564 delegates that they cannot get."

Where does the 564 delegates from those 5 states figure come from? It seemed very unusual that those 5 states would have about 1/4th of the total delegates.

So i looked online. According to the list of delegates put out by the NYT, the delegates from those states when added together total: 294. An important number, but about half of what the original post claims.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates
This agrees with other sources.

on Drudge?

on Drudge?

deleted

deleted

The Founders of this great nation abhorred tyrrany and loved liberty.

I'm pretty sure he made the

I'm pretty sure he made the ballot in TN...

"You must be frank with the world; frankness is the child of honesty and courage...Never do anything wrong to make a friend or keep one...Above all do not appear to others what you are not" - Robert E. Lee, CSA

Anybody knows?

How do delegates get allocated in those 5 states? Does the winner take all or they are proportionally awarded? Sorry for not having time to do my own homework on the question, but maybe someone already has a quick answer.

Actually Pretty Complicated -- Numbers Seem Off Too

Per a very reliable source:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2012&of...

There are only 295 delegates up in those five states. Though I know Doug Wead has quoted the 564 delegate number unavailable to Santorum and Gingrich. Maybe there are more than five states?

Really good news is,that Virginias 50 delegates and Ohio's 66 are essentially winner take all (if only two are on the ballot) so Dr Paul could get all 116 delegates up for grabs in these contests.

Of the 295 in all these five though, Missouri's 52 will be selected by caucus (or automatically assigned to party leaders). So even Gingrich and Santorum could get delegates, though they won't caucus too well (Iowa was a fluke IMO). Mo has two events -- Feb 7th is the non-binding primary. The caucus is in March I think. Tennessees 58 delegates and Illinois 69 are much more complicated still. 32 of those will probably be alloted to state party leaders (no help to Dr Paul?). The other 50 in Illinois are by direct election of delegates (by name). So a well organized camp could do well (plus for us). Tennessee remaining 39 are alloted in a modified winner take take all (sort of) but Dr Paul could do very well in a two man only contest.

All in all this discussion proves the merits of the campaigns very unusual delegate focused strategy. The more organized the better chance of winning. The drawback is that the byzantine nature of the rules allows for party leaders to hijack the process.

Complicated indeed - thank you!

Also bookmarked the link, thanks for the detailed reply!

Here you go...

www.thegreenpapers.com

The Founders of this great nation abhorred tyrrany and loved liberty.

Winner Take-All:

Winner Take-All: Ohio (66 Delegates)

Proportional: Tennessee (58 Delegates), Virginia (49 Delegates), Missouri Caucus' (52 Delegates), Illinois (69 Delegates)

Virginia is only proportional

Virginia is only proportional IF no one gets over 50%. If one candidate gets over 50%, they get ALL THE DELEGATES! Since there are only 2 candidates in VA, one candidate will get all those delegates. Let's make it Dr. Paul!

2 candidates on the ballot?

2 candidates on the ballot? If so, then someone will definitely receive over 50%....;-)

You forgot...

...They are contemplating write-ins to be allowed.

Even if they are not allowed 'Other' or somesuch may be a factor that splits the delegates?

Thank you!

.

Awesome artical

That's great News! I hope you don't mind but I copied your post and sent it to a couple Newt and Santorum supporter I know to show them that they are wasting their vote.

go

to www.alabamaforronpaul.com for all the goodies....

What if everybody stays & Santorum gives his delegates to Newt?

Any way they both have enough to pull it off if they pooled their delegates for one person?

If those delegates are Paul

If those delegates are Paul supporters (hint, hint!) it will be ignored advice, if they are loyal Santorum or Newt supporters they may do as requested! We need to be those delegates!

With most states being proportional delegates

This has a LOT of weight. Statistically, neither Newt nor Santorum can actually WIN, so you can argue that a vote for either is wasted. Nice!

Thanks for the

Message of HOPE.
You made my day !

"Beyond the blackened skyline, beyond the smoky rain, dreams never turned to ashes up until.........
...Everything CHANGED !!