UPDATED: Look at these numbers! Very encouraging!
Submitted by ffmitch on Wed, 02/01/2012 - 13:23Vote totals - 2008 vs. 2012:
IA: 2008 - 11.817 ... 2012 - 26,036 that's 2.2x as many
NH: 2008 - 18,346 ... 2012 - 56,872 that's 3.1x
SC: 2008 - 16,155 ... 2012 - 77,993 that's 4.8x
FL: 2008 - 62,887 ... 2012 - 117,105 that's 1.9x
Now look at the first 4 contests coming up in February (ALL CAUCUS STATES)
NV: 2008 - 6,087 (13.7%) ... 2012 - 6,175 (18.7%)
ME: 2008 - 18.4%
CO: 2008 - 8.2%
MN: 2008 - 15.2%
I have every reason to believe that this trend of getting 2 to 5 times the number of votes will continue. February is shaping up to be great for Ron Paul!
Use percentage increase, not vote numbers - more accurate
that way you account for voter turnout.
graphical representation
http://imgur.com/uxz8b
You got to point out to the
You got to point out to the difference in total voters for those states. In other words, you can't straight up compare those 2 numbers from '08 and '12. Paul did even better considered there were less voters in '12.
"The true Patriot will repeal the Patriot Act..." - Ron Paul.
First of all Ron Paul did
First of all Ron Paul did better than you guy realized in Nevada, there was much less turnout of voters so that mean he got a larger slice of a smaller pie while Romney lost more than 5000 votes. Also, you can't just straight up compare these 2 numbers of '08 and '12 if you don't put in the total of voters between '08 and '12. In other words, Paul not only increased his numbers in these 5 states (Nevada included) but also did so with less voters. That's much more impressive than Romney.
"The true Patriot will repeal the Patriot Act..." - Ron Paul.
Hmm....
Didn't quite pan out that way in Nevada.
I wonder why.
'Always be yourself. Everyone else is taken.' - Oscar Wilde
FRAUD
*
For fun here are Ron Paul's 1988 results in the early states
Iowa (not on ballot)
New Hampshire 4502
South Carolina 4935
Florida 19796
Nevada 3520
Maine 2700
Colorado 15482
liberty lover in Nor Cal!
I don't like how the OP
I don't like how the OP switched from number of votes to percentage of vote. For this comparison to be relevant at all, you'd have to use one or the other. I'm sure the increase would still be significant.
“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” -George Bernard Shaw
Here is a more complete picture
IA- 2008- 118,696 (RP-11,817 9.96%) 2012- 121,501 (RP-26,036 21.43%)
NH- 2008- 239,793 (RP-18,346 7.65%) 2012- 248,475 (RP-56,872 22.89%)
SC- 2008- 445,617 (RP-16,155 3.62%) 2012- 603,856 (RP-77,993 12.98%)
FL- 2008- 1,949,498(RP-62,887 3.23%) 2012- 1,669,585(RP-117,105 7.01%)
totals for first 4 states:
GOP-2008- 2,753,604__ 2012- 2,643,417
RP- 2008- 109,205___ 2012- 278,006
NV-2008- 44,315 (RP-6,084 13.73%)
ME-2008- 5,430 (RP-997 18.36%)
CO-2008- 70,229 (RP-5,910 8.42%)
MN-2008- 62,828 (RP-9,852 15.68%)
here is a link with both numbers and percentages
http://www.dailypaul.com/204617/ron-paul-results-2008-2012
it just shows that Americans are bad at math
not much to cheer for. really
Very useful information...
Thanks again...
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, then you win!"
GANDHI
Great! At this rate, Ron Paul will be in first place by 2020
We have to do better than that. Time is running out on THIS campaign.
Exactly
Exactly
Follow me on Twitter for breaking news on Ron Paul and the U.S. Economy:
www.twitter.com/AbolishTheFed
Ditto
But you better watch out for speaking the truth. You will be hammered as a Ron Paul idolator by the igmoes who are not too familiar with political history.
Averaging 3x
If this trend and average continues then he will win 3 to 5 states for the month of FEB, that would be awesome!
encouraging numbers
i would hope he breaks 20% in all these coming states and i really really hope he gets a first in at least one of them !
----------------------------
Dr.Ron Paul's 2002 Predictions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDisyWkIBM
Romney is Obama - DONT vote for more of the same!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWDJEc92d38
Let's keep the momentum going
I think he's going to win these next couple of states... I think we're almost at a tipping point.
Hey ffmitch, just added your stats to my article
Hey ffmitch, just added your stats to my article: http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/11431330-february-...
Stephanie Ealy
Twitter: @StephEaly--Tacoma, WA
Citizen's journalist & freedom patriot for Ron Paul r3VOLution 2012 News: http://www.allvoices.com/users/StephEaly
Blog: http://freedomr3volution.wordpress.com/
Very VERY encouraging!
Thanks for posting!
Be SURE you are registered correctly! DO IT NOW!
Excellent book keeping with the numbers!
Please keep us updated throughout February.
Cheers!
I think it would be useful
I think it would be useful to know how many people were still in the race during each states primary in 08 compared to the four left now.
It probably doesn't make much difference.
Since the other Republican candidates have so much more in common with each other in foreign policy, spending, in Constitutional matters, and civil liberties, or lack thereof, Ron Paul doesn't benefit a great deal when others drop out. it probably doesn't matter a great deal how many were or are in the campaign. When Santorum drops out, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His supporters will not be anywhere evenly split between Romney and Paul.
Demographics play a larger role. Every four years, there are more Paul supporters and fewer neocons.
You don't think the doc will
You don't think the doc will benefit once santorum and Gingrich drop out?
Number games
If you just looked at the increase in magnitude of support based on the sampling size of the 4 states so far, Paul averages an increase of 3x his 2008 support levels. When that is averaged with the two less extreme changes (NH and IA) to try to keep it from moving too far based on an outlier result you get 2.76...7.
I considered the Florida contest as a possible detractor on momentum, but countered that NV is also a strong state for Paul and guessed (based just on my number games) that his support would increase 2.7x - this would give us 37%. This might not be enough for an outright win, but it would fuel momentum and break the "ceiling" myth, allowing Paul to gain momentum into ME. There, I used the 2.76x multiplier and got 50.78% - almost assuredly a win. I assumed this momentum would get us to at least 3x for the next two contests.
Final guesses:
NV - 37% 2nd
ME - 50.78% 1st
CO - 24.6% 3rd (or 2nd)
MN - 45.6% too close to call.
Of course, these are strictly number games and not accurate predictions, because human behavior takes a bit more than math to predict... ;)
projections
I fail to put any trust in them.
If so called republicans are naive enough to tie their wagons to Mitts', then they do not recognize it is full of barbed wire imo.
donvino
FL Comments
Here are some comments from Hillsborough County Florida (Tampa)
This will help others know why we had less of an increase than some other states.
Our volunteer county leader said: In 2008, Hillsborough county only gave 2,826 votes to Dr. Paul. In 2012 we gave 6,943. In 2008 our percentage was 2.8% and in 2012 it was 7.7%. We did all of this with one month of hard campaigning (January) while calling into Iowa and New Hampshire in December and January. We also did this with no money other than our own, and no commercials helping us out. This is really good!
I said:
In addition, media either ignored us or attacked us most of the time. No free publicity like the other candidates got. In addition, where Dr. Paul campaigned 4 days in South Carolina, he campaigned zero days in Florida. The trips in for the debates were in and out (except for the 2 minute visits to visit his supporters like at Copper Top).
Almost triple the support with no official presence, I feel good about that!
Two more things the other states had were:
1. Massive Direct Mail (my mom in Iowa got like 10 mailings from Dr. Paul and she isn't a donor (I know, I need to work on her)).
2. Massive get out the vote effort in other states. We had no voter tracking system like we did in Iowa.
In addition, we were below the state average in 2008 (2.8% vs. 3.8%). Yesterday, we were above the state average (7.7% vs. 7.0%). So we took a weak region and made it a strong region for Liberty!
What about Michigan?
Since April 2011 Michigan is the state (out of 11 states that I have enough data to accurately track) that consistently pops up at the top of my projected performance list regardless of the various random probably scenarios I run. I don't know what any of the so called "official polls" are indicating, but based on my samples Michigan is the state with the highest probability of a Ron Paul 1st place finish. From my understanding a Ron Paul win in Michigan would be viewed as an upset because it's Mitt's home state. Anyone know what/how we're doing in Michigan?
It's the End of the Line for Ron Paul and his supporters
http://youtu.be/OmtlqB0x59Y
I'd like to see more about
I'd like to see more about your projections. I've been running some myself.
Here is the latest poll from Michigan. It is a small sample, but we got 14%
http://www.freep.com/article/20120127/NEWS15/201270468/Obama...
we will know very soon!
we gotta work our tails off for some first and second places in February... i'm so sick of seeing CNN stats for the top 3 GOP vote-getters and not a single man of integrity included!
missing the iowa win because of Doctor Paul's cold is okey, i'd much rather he gets a Feb win as a sign of his "surging momentum"...