David Weigel at Slate.com takes a dim view of accurate polling in Nevada. In 2008, Paul's campaign received twice as many votes as all the polls were predicting. Plus his 2012 campaign is far stronger.
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Santorum was 3rd and
Santorum was 3rd and leapfrogged Paul and Romney last minute in Iowa. According to 538, Paul was 2nd place at 21%. They actually got Paul's numbers right but he ended up 3rd because Santorum peaked in the last few days going to the caucus date. I thought it was going to be a 3-way race but it became a 2-way race between Santorum and Romney which got 25% each. They got them wrong however they anticipated Santorum's surge the day before.
As for Nevada, 538 data shows Paul in 3rd place at 15% walloping Santorum who is at 8%. But Romney is 51% and Newt is 26%. According to the Slate article, Paul actually doubled his actual numbers from 7% to $14% in 2008, however, Romney also doubled his numbers from 26% to 51%. We can conclude that Paul's best showing in NV would be a 2nd place finish. Can Paul cut into Romney's mormon voters? At best, I think Paul can get 15% of the mormon vote. Maybe he'll get some of the Catholic votes too away from Newt and Santorum. So my estimate is that Paul will have 35% at best of the votes to Romney's 47%. Gingrich at 13% and Santorum at 5%. Now if Newt and Santi can eat off some of Mitt's share, then it could get more interesting. Best case scenario:
Paul 35%
Romney 34%
Gingrich 20%
Santorum 11%
Nv. Polls
It must be very embarrassing for Willard "Mitt" Romney to have to use all this money to build the False Reality he's building to get votes. He's probably not admitting it to himself,but we all know that no one would vote for him if he didn't keep them riding on a False Reality. The Fake numbers in the pre-polls are just one more Lie that he has to use. It's called the Sheeples Vote. Sheeples are individuals who can't think for themselves,so they just vote for the candidate that they are being told will win. These pathetic individuals don't care if another Nazi gets in office and steals their rights and $$ or that of their kids or that of their fellow Americans,as long as they think for that split second that they were a winner. But in Truth; They are the Garbage of the Earth. And there's a bunch of these Slave-Want -To-Bees here in the U.S., but there are more and more Sheeple's growing Red White and Blue BALLS that are going to put President Paul in office regardless of Romney's Corrupt Voting Machines and his voting Officials.
We seem to continue boom and bust ourselves
inflating expectations. This is a long-haul proposition. We want to do well in Nevada, but extrapolating from DailyPaul enthusiasm has been wrong every time.
Keep your efforts high, your expectations low, and keep going.
Don't Vote For Ron Paul for anything less than
Re[love]ution & Renaissance
Dennis
Just saw a poll on CNN
for Nevada with Romney 20 points ahead of all others and Paul at 9%.
PRESIDENT RON PAUL
VICE PRESIDENT Andrew Napolitano
but mitt doubled his poll numbers too
I think in a small caucus with a low turn out its really hard to poll. I would like to see Ron get 50%
Mormon vote
Mormon vote, they have an insane caucus attendance rate. But some of them might be willing to give RP a shot. A State's Right's Paul would give the Mormons a lot more power over Utah.
You can't trust the polls
The polls are created by the same people who created Diebold and ES&S. They are propaganda tools to weaken the opposition. SC polls said 40% for Gingrich and that's what he got. It was faked.
Poll-Watchers and counters with video cameras. Iowans reported extra Mormons voting for Romney, even out-of-state ones, drove up to vote in no ID precincts. It's 1000% vote fraud unless this is a first or second place.
Amen
to that!